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yoda

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  1. yoda
    TVS signature west of Walkersville MD on Radarscope
  2. yoda
    pretty decent storms in N MD right now
  3. yoda
    Way out in W MD, but TOR tag on it Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 MDC023-292015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240629T2015Z/ Garrett MD- 326 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN GARRETT COUNTY... At 326 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Accident, or 9 miles north of Oakland, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Bittinger, Accident, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, Merrill, McHenry, Big Run State Park, and McComas Beach. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3962 7899 3948 7907 3948 7910 3947 7909 3946 7911 3943 7911 3943 7913 3951 7948 3962 7948 TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 275DEG 25KT 3955 7940 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
  4. yoda
    @Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe LWX AFD from this afternoon says Saturday is concerning Saturday is where things really start to get interesting. That warm front that was mentioned earlier will lift north through the region throughout the morning into the afternoon hours. Looking aloft, the upper trough is centered well to our north, but there does appear to be a piece of shortwave energy that will slide by near/north of our area. This will be where things get tricky as that interacts with the warm front itself. Getting back to our area, how does this impact us locally? Well, with the warm front potentially still over portions of our region, forecast soundings are a bit concerning in the low- levels right along that with some decent low-level shear showing up. This will be paired with highs in the low 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s, which should yield plenty of instability to pop off some thunderstorms. Model guidance has come into much better agreement with a consensus of anywhere between 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE in place, which tracks given the temp/dew point combo mentioned above. The Storm Prediction Center already has most of our area in a marginal risk for severe weather, with a slight risk just to our northwest. Thinking that the highest threat is going to be exactly where that piece of energy ends of going and/or if there are any other mesoscale features upstream to monitor, which is pretty common in June. Storms that develop Saturday afternoon will have a lot going for them, especially near the warm front. Damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two would be my primary concerns Saturday. Looking at some of the machine learning guidance we have at our disposal these days confirms that thought as well, with the CSU Machine Learning tornado probs in the 2-5% range Saturday. The highest threat is concentrated along the MD/PA border northward, and that is reflected in our POP forecast updated this afternoon. A lot can change with this forecast, so keep that in mind. Mesoscale features are extremely difficult to pin down a few days out, but just wanted to highlight that the parameter space is concerning. Please visit weather.gov/lwx for our latest forecast, and spc.noaa.gov for the latest severe weather outlooks.
  5. yoda
    Interesting... 06z NAM throws up some decent soundings in the area late Saturday suggesting an isolated tornado threat
  6. yoda
    Looks like the weekend is our next threat window to watch
  7. yoda
    11:15am LWX AFD update NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overall not much change to the current forecast. Still monitoring the influx of moisture pushing north this afternoon and winds aloft to determine the extent of our severe weather threat later today. The current 12z KIAD this morning shows plenty of dry air in the mid to upper levels and even at the surface. PWATS this morning are around 1.43 inches with low level RH values ta 45 percent and mid level RH values around 55 percent. 12z KRNK sounding to the south is a bit drier with PWATS around 1.14 inches. As a result, expect an excessively hot and humid afternoon ahead of a strong shortwave disturbance/cold front that is set to cross tonight into early Thursday morning. Convective activity looks to be a bit more organized although some uncertainty remains with the better forcing forecast north of the area up across PA/NJ. Severe THREATS:This convective activity is due largely in part to a lee trough ahead of the main boundary leading to increased height falls and a quickly moistening thermodynamic profile which should initiate convection mid to late afternoon (between 3-7pm). The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the majority of the forecast area north of Interstate 64 in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary threats with these thunderstorms will be damaging winds and large hail. The threat for damaging winds (70 mph or more) continues to increase per the latest 12z guidance although some uncertainty remains to how widespread this threat will be resolved with two rounds of convection set to take place. Additionally, there is a secondary threat of an isolated tornado mainly along the PA/MD line and back into portions of western MD given the back flow. This threat has lowered somewhat in the last few model runs, but something that we are still monitoring at this time. Isolated instances of urban and poor drainage flooding are also possible given increased PWAT values above 1.5 inches. With the antecedent dry conditions expect a bit more runoff as water will have a bit of a harder time percolating through. Ahead of the front, south to southwesterly flow will help boost afternoon temperatures into the mid to upper 90s. Some urban locations especially from DC points south and east may push up and over 100 degrees. Of course this will be determined by how much low level moisture influx there is over the region and how early convective initiation takes place. Models have dewpoints quickly getting back into the low 70s this afternoon with precipitable water values on the order of 1.8-2.2 inches. The confidence for Heat Advisories still remains low although a few areas may touch criteria for a brief period of time. Overall heat index values this afternoon will run between 98 to 104 degrees during the peak of the afternoon. Will continue to monitor the need for any such heat-related products. SEVERE TIMING:Expect convective initiation to kick off along the lee side trough later this afternoon before propagating east of the metros tonight (between 3-7pm). Storms will feed off of CAPE values between 1500-2500 j/kg. This is especially true east of the Alleghenies where the bulk of the instability looks to remain untapped from limited convective debris. 0-6 km shear values will be on the order of 30-40 kts with lapse rate 6-7 degrees C/km favoring well organized storms. This is backed up in several hi-res CAMS and model soundings. Convection is slow to wane as we get into tonight and Thursday morning as the cold front slowly pushes through. The severe threat at this point may be on it`s way down due in part to the initial round of thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening hours. We`ll have to continue to monitor this timeframe though as some of the latest guidance has trended toward isolated activity mainly east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon with the next round blowing up west of the Alleghenies this evening and propagating east overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper 60s with low to mid 70s along and east of I-95.
  8. yoda
    Okay then... @WxUSAFwill take the 12z NAM Nest supercell lol... comes barging through at 20z/21z
  9. yoda
    I think everyone would take the 12z HRRR Wouldn't mind the 12z NAM either
  10. yoda
    06z NAM
  11. yoda
    Basically
  12. yoda
    I'd take the 06z NAM NEST and the 06z NAM
  13. yoda
    And LWX HWO mentions isolated tornadoes possible in each 3 parts for the region .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices between 100 to 105 degrees. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into the evening. There is the potential for considerable wind damage, but confidence is low at this time.
  14. yoda
    Day 1 OTLK from SPC still mentions potential upgrade .Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear.
  15. yoda
    Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday. ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... An upper trough will progress eastward on Wednesday from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A seasonally moist airmass will be in place across much of the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic where strong heating will support moderate to strong destabilization. Forcing for ascent associated with the eastward-advancing upper trough and one or more MCVs moving across the region will support scattered to numerous strong/severe thunderstorms through the period. One cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to be focused from PA eastward into the NJ/southern NY vicinity ahead of a southward sagging cold front. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will support a few supercell and/or bowing structures. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates, with mixing to around 1 km, suggest damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main hazards with this activity. Another cluster of strong/severe storms is expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern KY/WV and northern VA. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent, but deeper mixing with very steep lapse rates is noted in forecast soundings. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible with this activity. Some potential may exist for higher severe probabilities in subsequent outlooks for portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast if an organized bowing structure can develop. However, confidence in this scenario is too low at this time for categorical upgrades. Additional storms are expected along the southward developing cold front during the late afternoon into evening closer to the OH River in southern IN and central KY. Weaker shear will limit longevity of more organized cells, but strong instability and steep lapse rates will still support localized strong gusts and marginal hail.
  16. yoda
    ENH upgrade was thought about FWIW @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe
  17. yoda
    New Day 2 at 1730z moves the SLGT risk south and west to now include all of the LWX CWA
  18. yoda
    Hmmm... this is in all 3 of the HWOs this morning as of 730am DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Hot and humid conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the low to mid 90s and peak heat indices between 100 to 105. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. There is the potential for considerable wind damage, but confidence is low at this time. Hot and humid conditions return over the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed for Wednesday afternoon and evening.
  19. yoda
    LWX AFD from this morning on Wednesdays severe threat SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A progressive array of shortwaves are forecast to track from southern Alberta toward the north-central tier of the U.S. today. These height falls will provide the next chance for any organized convective activity. Based on the latest Storm Prediction Center update, areas north of the Potomac Highlands and central Virginia are in a Slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and isolated large hailstones. Some of the guidance does show some higher Supercell Composite indices along the Mason-Dixon Line given the backed flow. With that in mind, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out along this area of the Mid-Atlantic. The thermodynamic environment should become increasingly unstable as the boundary layer moistens through the day. This is in the presence of afternoon temperatures which should rise into the mid/upper 90s. The degree of low-level moistening is somewhat uncertain, but the consensus does raise dew points into the mid/upper 60s. This would support heat indices into the 100 to 104 degree range which does near Heat Advisory criteria. Will continue to monitor the need for any such heat-related products. Depending on how upstream activity survives the Appalachian chain, some early morning showers could push into areas west of I-81. However, the main show likely initiates along a lee-side trough during the afternoon hours. This occurs in the presence of rising buoyancy levels on the order of 2,000 to 2,500 J/kg. High-resolution guidance favors propagating this activity downstream toward the metro areas by the late afternoon to early evening. Model soundings indicate there is plenty of vertical shear to work with (35-40 knots), so expect storms to be reasonably well organized. Depending on how everything else plays out during peak heating, the cold front tracking through late Wednesday could bring additional thunder chances if any instability remains. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will mainly be in the 60s, locally in the low 70s along and east of I-95.
  20. yoda
    SPC Day 1 0600 OTLK has SLGT risk from i66 corridor north including all of MD... disco below Across the Mid Atlantic, more isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multi-cell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado or two will remain possible with any sustained supercell.
  21. yoda
    Mesoscale Discussion 1379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...West-central into northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222355Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in severe threat is expected for western and northern portions of Illinois. Damaging winds are the expected main hazard, but a conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in severe potential can be expected across portions of western into northern Illinois this evening. Activity currently in Wisconsin near the surface low/warm front may eventually congeal and push farther southward into Illinois. Additionally, storms along the cold front may move in from the west. The current expectation is that activity will generally be more linear in terms of storm mode with primarily a threat of damaging winds. While 850 mb winds are expected to modestly increase this evening, the low-level shear vector orientation will not be overly favorable for QLCS circulations. It is possible some discrete elements could develop ahead of the front/convective line which would pose a marginally greater tornado risk. Another uncertainty is the low-level moisture with eastward extent. Current surface observations show a dry pocket in the Chicagoland vicinity. Some higher dewpoints do exist to the southwest and should make some attempt to advect northeastward tonight, but the exact magnitude of moisture return is uncertain. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1379.html
  22. yoda
    @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe Sounds like some intrigue midweek? From this afternoon's LWX AFD Unfortunately, high pressure quickly pushes offshore Wednesday allowing for increased southwesterly return flow and our next shortwave trough/front to move in. This will allow temperatures to surge back into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values up and over the 100 degree mark east of the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon. Some uncertainty remains in regards to temperatures due to the progression of the next shortwave trough and incumbent cold front from the Ohio River Valley set to approach the region. 12z synoptic/ensemble guidance suggest fairly spotty convection Wednesday afternoon and evening with more widespread thunderstorm activity developing across the Ohio River Valley and advancing east toward the region Wednesday night. This is partially due in part to the modeling trying to resolve what looks to be a complex of thunderstorms diving south and east from the Ohio River Valley ahead of the cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In the event this occurs the atmosphere may be turned over reducing the potential threat of widespread severe weather or pushing it later into Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. Current CSU learning machine probabilities and the SPC discussion in the Day 5 timeframe also illustrate this potential threat/uncertainty for severe weather during the midweek timeframe.
  23. yoda
    I believe these are the highs for today DCA - 100 IAD - 100 BWI- 101 RIC - 99
  24. yoda
    Good call
  25. yoda
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