yoda

That's too much rainfall

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 322 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 MDZ006-008-011-507-508-070330- /O.NEW.KLWX.FA.A.0020.240806T1922Z-240807T0800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford- Including the cities of Jarrettsville, Elkton, Cockeysville, Reisterstown, Baltimore, and Aberdeen 322 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast and northern Maryland, including the following areas, in northeast Maryland, Cecil. In northern Maryland, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Southeast Harford and Southern Baltimore. * WHEN...Through late tonight. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Recent heavy rainfall has significantly lowered flash flood guidance in northeast Maryland in recent days, including several inches today in isolated spots. More torrential rainfall is possible this afternoon as multiple mesoscale convective complexes push through, which may result in flash flooding. Generally, most places will get another inch or so form this, but isolated spots where training occurs could see 2 to 3 inches of rainfall in a relatively short period of time. - Please visit www.weather.gov/safety/flood for flood safety and preparedness information

245pm afternoon HWO for all 3 regions from LWX have this DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Tropical Cyclone Debby will approach the region later this week, potentially bringing impacts Thursday night through Saturday morning. Potential impacts include flooding due to heavy rainfall, tornadoes, gusty winds, tidal flooding, and Gale force winds over the waters. For the latest information on the track and potential impacts from Debby, please consult forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov.

Are you extrapolating after the end of the run at 00z Friday?

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 229 PM EDT Tue Aug 6 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Baltimore County in northern Maryland... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 229 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Baltimore... Parkville... Carney... Perry Hall... Rosedale... Rossville... White Marsh... Kingsville... Pleasant Hills... Joppatowne... Nottingham... Upper Falls... Gunpowder... Fullerton... Bradshaw...

12z UKIE concurs with the honorable 12z CMC delegates... 4 to 8 inches areawide BR and i81 corridor crushed

12z GEFS mean is right around 3" FWIW

12z CMC is 3-6/4-8"

00z UKIE FWIW

00z CMC tries to flood the i95 corridor... especially from DC to EZF to RIC

We take the 00z ICON

WPC still going big

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form. The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft. The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame. Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below tropical storm strength through 72 hours. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area. 4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 27.0N 84.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 28.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 29.9N 84.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 30.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 31.6N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 07/0000Z 31.9N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 07/1200Z 32.2N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1200Z 33.5N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1200Z 35.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DEBBY LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION... ...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT LOOMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 84.3W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the middle of Longboat Key to Aripeka, Florida including Tampa Bay. The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Keys east of the Dry Tortugas is discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch for the Florida Keys north of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge is discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast from Bonita Beach northward to the middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida coast from the Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Florida coast south of the Suwannee River to East Cape Sable * Florida coast west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach * Georgia and South Carolina coast from the Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South Carolina A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

Looks like it's going to stay there

18z GFS has Debby in W GA at 126

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 538 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0445 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Hume 38.83N 78.00W 08/03/2024 Fauquier VA Emergency Mngr County emergency manager reported numerous trees down, a roof blown off a house and a shed collapsed in the area of Hume Rd and Leeds Manor Rd, and northeast towards I-66. && Event Number LWX2403697

Sounds like Hume in Fauquier county got smoked

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 519 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 518 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oatlands, or near Brambleton, moving east at 35 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR EASTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Broadlands, Lansdowne, Brambleton, Ashburn, Sterling, Countryside, Arcola, Oatlands, Belmont, and Sterling Park. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across eastern Loudoun County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3907 7746 3907 7740 3905 7737 3901 7737 3895 7744 3893 7762 3902 7765 3910 7748 TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 254DEG 31KT 3897 7765 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 520 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... West central Montgomery County in central Maryland... Loudoun County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Fairfax County in northern Virginia... East central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... South central Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia... * Until 545 PM EDT. * At 520 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from Round Hill to near Brambleton to near Warrenton, moving northeast at 45 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Centreville, Leesburg, South Riding, Herndon, Broadlands, Lansdowne, Lowes Island, Brambleton, Poolesville, Dulles International Airport, Ashburn, Linton Hall, Sterling, Chantilly, Great Falls, Bull Run, Countryside, Purcellville, Haymarket, and Middleburg.

Don't think I've seen a warning inside a warning before

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 502 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia... North central Fauquier County in northern Virginia... Northwestern Prince William County in northern Virginia... * Until 530 PM EDT. * At 500 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Delaplane, or 15 miles north of Warrenton, moving east at 40 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR DELAPLANE, MIDDLEBURG, AND ALDIE. HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable damage to trees and power lines. Your life is at significant risk if outdoors. In addition to some trees falling into homes, wind damage is possible to roofs, sheds, open garages, and mobile homes. * Locations impacted include... Middleburg, Marshall, Saint Louis, Aldie, Halfway, and Rectortown. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread wind damage across Delaplane, Middleburg, and Aldie. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows! Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. && LAT...LON 3887 7790 3896 7793 3907 7765 3890 7759 TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 251DEG 34KT 3893 7786 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...80 MPH

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 03 2024 The tropical cyclone has become better organized since the last advisory, with the circulation center becoming better defined over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and areas of outer convective banding to the north and south of the central region. A combination of earlier scatterometer data, surface observations in the Florida Keys, and ship reports in the Straits of Florida shows an area of 30-35 kt winds located about 120 n mi from the center in the eastern semicircle. Based on this information, Tropical Depression Four is upgraded to Tropical Storm Debby. The initial motion is now northwest or 310/13 kt. A large mid- to upper-level trough over the central United States is creating a break in the subtropical ridge, and Debby is expected to turn northward into this break in about 24 h. This should be followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast at a slower forward speed through 60 h. This motion should bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast in roughly 48 h. After landfall, weakening steering currents should cause the cyclone to slow down while it moves northeastward or eastward over parts of northern Florida and Georgia. The uncertainty in the forecast increases significantly after 60 h as the cyclone interacts with a portion of the U.S. trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF models show a slow eastward motion into the Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the north or northwest that brings the center back inland. On the other hand, the Canadian model is still forecasting Debby to move slowly northeastward across the southeastern states and does not bring it over the Atlantic. This portion of the new forecast track continues to show a slow motion and leans toward the GFS/ECMWF solutions. Conditions are favorable for strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico with warm sea surface temperatures and light shear. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h, then proceed at a faster rate after the cyclone develops an organized inner core. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 65 kt at landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida in best agreement with the HWRF model. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to the possibility of land interaction and how much interaction will occur with the aforementioned mid-latitude trough. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast this weekend through Thursday. Significant river flooding is also expected. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected on Monday along portions of the Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area and the Lower Florida Keys. 3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along portions of the Gulf coast of Florida from Aripeka to Indian Pass. Life-threatening storm surge is possible south of Aripeka to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. 4. Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or on Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.9N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 25.3N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0600Z 31.0N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/1800Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z 31.5N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1800Z 33.0N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven