yoda

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 DCZ001-MDZ004>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ036>040-050-051-053- 054-501-502-505-506-526-527-051900- /O.CON.KLWX.HT.Y.0005.240705T1600Z-240706T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock- Orange-Culpeper-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, Germantown, Damascus, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Lisbon, Columbia, Ellicott City, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Lovingston, Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Haymarket, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heat index values up to 109 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast and northern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central, northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 MDZ016>018-VAZ055>057-051900- /O.UPG.KLWX.HT.Y.0005.240705T1600Z-240706T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.EH.W.0002.240705T1600Z-240706T0000Z/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Including the cities of St. Charles, Waldorf, Lexington Park, California, Chesapeake Beach, Huntingtown, Dunkirk, North Beach, Lusby, Prince Frederick, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, and Dahlgren 352 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 112 expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Charles, St. Marys and Calvert Counties. In Virginia, Stafford, Spotsylvania and King George Counties. * WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.

True. I think Ian usually gets awesome pics

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 352 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ053>056-527-042000- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0005.240705T1600Z-240706T0000Z/ /O.CON.KLWX.HT.Y.0004.240704T1600Z-240705T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 352 AM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...For the first Heat Advisory, heat index values between 100 to 105 expected. For the second Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 107 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...For the first Heat Advisory, from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening. For the second Heat Advisory, from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday.

I think more it's because it's 4th of July and tons of people will be out and about all afternoon and evening

Heat Advisory for the I-95 corridor tomorrow afternoon URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 346 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-VAZ053>056-527-040400- /O.NEW.KLWX.HT.Y.0004.240704T1600Z-240705T0000Z/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Washington, Baltimore, Bowie, Suitland-Silver Hill, Clinton, College Park, Greenbelt, Laurel, Camp Springs, Glen Burnie, Annapolis, Severn, South Gate, Severna Park, Arnold, Odenton, St. Charles, Waldorf, Bethesda, Rockville, Gaithersburg, Silver Spring, Columbia, Ellicott City, Reston, Herndon, Annandale, Centreville, Chantilly, McLean, Franconia, Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church, Falmouth, Fredericksburg, Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 346 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heat index values around 100 to 105 expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Maryland, The District of Columbia, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat illnesses to occur. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The combination of air temperatures in the 90s and high humidity will result in the potential for increased heat-related illnesses, especially those partaking in outdoor Independence Day activities

Damn. Congrats to him https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/40474265/quincy-wilson-16-becomes-youngest-us-male-track-olympian

Everybody on deck Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1110 AM AST Mon Jul 1 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ON CARRIACOU ISLAND... ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL STRONGER... Satellite imagery and Barbados radar data indicate that the eye of Beryl has made landfall on Carriacou Island at 1110 AM AST (1510 UTC). Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Beryl's maximum sustained winds have increased to 150 mph (240 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 950 mb (28.05 inches). SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Kelly/Cangialosi

BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024 1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU ISLAND... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

Mesoscale Discussion 1489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NC/VA...MD...and DE Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 301611Z - 301815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next couple of hours, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. A watch will likely be needed for portions of the region withing the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Portions of northern VA into MD/DE continue to experience greater cloud cover at midday due to earlier day convection. The airmass across this area has been slower to recover as heating has been somewhat slower than surrounding areas. Instability increases with southward extent, and to the east of a surface trough, across southeast VA into northeast NC. With time, much of the region should achieve moderate to strong destabilization given surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s/low 90s F. Vertical shear will be strongest (around 25-30 kt effective shear magnitudes) across northern VA/MD/DE, while decreasing with southward extent into NC. Convection may first develop in the uncapped and moderately unstable airmass near the surface trough across parts of NC into southeast VA. As airmass recovery continues across northern portions of the MCD area, additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of northern VA and shift east through late afternoon/early evening. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk of damaging gusts, with potentially some better organized/more intense bowing segments possible further north where better shear overlaps the moderately unstable airmass. Regardless, portions of the MCD area will likely need severe thunderstorm watch issuance within the next 1-2 hours. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1489.html

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 930 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Central Frederick County in north central Maryland... * Until 1000 PM EDT. * At 929 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Frederick, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. * Locations impacted include... Frederick, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek, Mount Airy, Walkersville, Braddock Heights, New Market, Discovery-Spring Garden, Green Valley, Clover Hill, Linganore-Bartonsville, Libertytown, Monrovia, Ijamsville, Bloomfield, Mount Pleasant, Clifton, Middletown In Frederick Md, and Unionville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3950 7712 3950 7711 3948 7712 3946 7712 3943 7713 3942 7715 3941 7715 3936 7717 3935 7718 3929 7731 3942 7756 3953 7747 TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 290DEG 22KT 3943 7739 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

TVS signature west of Walkersville MD on Radarscope

pretty decent storms in N MD right now

Way out in W MD, but TOR tag on it Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 326 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 MDC023-292015- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-240629T2015Z/ Garrett MD- 326 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN GARRETT COUNTY... At 326 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Accident, or 9 miles north of Oakland, moving east at 30 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured light objects may become projectiles. Locations impacted include... Bittinger, Accident, Deep Creek Lake State Park, Swallow Falls State Park, Merrill, McHenry, Big Run State Park, and McComas Beach. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the basement or small central room in a sturdy structure. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3962 7899 3948 7907 3948 7910 3947 7909 3946 7911 3943 7911 3943 7913 3951 7948 3962 7948 TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 275DEG 25KT 3955 7940 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

@Kmlwx @high risk @Eskimo Joe LWX AFD from this afternoon says Saturday is concerning Saturday is where things really start to get interesting. That warm front that was mentioned earlier will lift north through the region throughout the morning into the afternoon hours. Looking aloft, the upper trough is centered well to our north, but there does appear to be a piece of shortwave energy that will slide by near/north of our area. This will be where things get tricky as that interacts with the warm front itself. Getting back to our area, how does this impact us locally? Well, with the warm front potentially still over portions of our region, forecast soundings are a bit concerning in the low- levels right along that with some decent low-level shear showing up. This will be paired with highs in the low 90s and dew points in the low to mid 70s, which should yield plenty of instability to pop off some thunderstorms. Model guidance has come into much better agreement with a consensus of anywhere between 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE in place, which tracks given the temp/dew point combo mentioned above. The Storm Prediction Center already has most of our area in a marginal risk for severe weather, with a slight risk just to our northwest. Thinking that the highest threat is going to be exactly where that piece of energy ends of going and/or if there are any other mesoscale features upstream to monitor, which is pretty common in June. Storms that develop Saturday afternoon will have a lot going for them, especially near the warm front. Damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two would be my primary concerns Saturday. Looking at some of the machine learning guidance we have at our disposal these days confirms that thought as well, with the CSU Machine Learning tornado probs in the 2-5% range Saturday. The highest threat is concentrated along the MD/PA border northward, and that is reflected in our POP forecast updated this afternoon. A lot can change with this forecast, so keep that in mind. Mesoscale features are extremely difficult to pin down a few days out, but just wanted to highlight that the parameter space is concerning. Please visit weather.gov/lwx for our latest forecast, and spc.noaa.gov for the latest severe weather outlooks.

Interesting... 06z NAM throws up some decent soundings in the area late Saturday suggesting an isolated tornado threat

Looks like the weekend is our next threat window to watch

11:15am LWX AFD update NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Overall not much change to the current forecast. Still monitoring the influx of moisture pushing north this afternoon and winds aloft to determine the extent of our severe weather threat later today. The current 12z KIAD this morning shows plenty of dry air in the mid to upper levels and even at the surface. PWATS this morning are around 1.43 inches with low level RH values ta 45 percent and mid level RH values around 55 percent. 12z KRNK sounding to the south is a bit drier with PWATS around 1.14 inches. As a result, expect an excessively hot and humid afternoon ahead of a strong shortwave disturbance/cold front that is set to cross tonight into early Thursday morning. Convective activity looks to be a bit more organized although some uncertainty remains with the better forcing forecast north of the area up across PA/NJ. Severe THREATS:This convective activity is due largely in part to a lee trough ahead of the main boundary leading to increased height falls and a quickly moistening thermodynamic profile which should initiate convection mid to late afternoon (between 3-7pm). The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight the majority of the forecast area north of Interstate 64 in a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) Wednesday afternoon and evening. The primary threats with these thunderstorms will be damaging winds and large hail. The threat for damaging winds (70 mph or more) continues to increase per the latest 12z guidance although some uncertainty remains to how widespread this threat will be resolved with two rounds of convection set to take place. Additionally, there is a secondary threat of an isolated tornado mainly along the PA/MD line and back into portions of western MD given the back flow. This threat has lowered somewhat in the last few model runs, but something that we are still monitoring at this time. Isolated instances of urban and poor drainage flooding are also possible given increased PWAT values above 1.5 inches. With the antecedent dry conditions expect a bit more runoff as water will have a bit of a harder time percolating through. Ahead of the front, south to southwesterly flow will help boost afternoon temperatures into the mid to upper 90s. Some urban locations especially from DC points south and east may push up and over 100 degrees. Of course this will be determined by how much low level moisture influx there is over the region and how early convective initiation takes place. Models have dewpoints quickly getting back into the low 70s this afternoon with precipitable water values on the order of 1.8-2.2 inches. The confidence for Heat Advisories still remains low although a few areas may touch criteria for a brief period of time. Overall heat index values this afternoon will run between 98 to 104 degrees during the peak of the afternoon. Will continue to monitor the need for any such heat-related products. SEVERE TIMING:Expect convective initiation to kick off along the lee side trough later this afternoon before propagating east of the metros tonight (between 3-7pm). Storms will feed off of CAPE values between 1500-2500 j/kg. This is especially true east of the Alleghenies where the bulk of the instability looks to remain untapped from limited convective debris. 0-6 km shear values will be on the order of 30-40 kts with lapse rate 6-7 degrees C/km favoring well organized storms. This is backed up in several hi-res CAMS and model soundings. Convection is slow to wane as we get into tonight and Thursday morning as the cold front slowly pushes through. The severe threat at this point may be on it`s way down due in part to the initial round of thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening hours. We`ll have to continue to monitor this timeframe though as some of the latest guidance has trended toward isolated activity mainly east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon with the next round blowing up west of the Alleghenies this evening and propagating east overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the mid to upper 60s with low to mid 70s along and east of I-95.

Okay then... @WxUSAFwill take the 12z NAM Nest supercell lol... comes barging through at 20z/21z

I think everyone would take the 12z HRRR Wouldn't mind the 12z NAM either

06z NAM

Basically

I'd take the 06z NAM NEST and the 06z NAM

And LWX HWO mentions isolated tornadoes possible in each 3 parts for the region .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Hot and humid conditions are expected this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices between 100 to 105 degrees. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into the evening. There is the potential for considerable wind damage, but confidence is low at this time.

Day 1 OTLK from SPC still mentions potential upgrade .Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear.