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yoda

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  1. yoda
    Morning 0600z disco for us from SPC... currently 5/15/15 ..Mid-Atlantic... A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7 K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west. Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be realized, as hinted by some model solutions.
  2. yoda
    I'm going to go with 5/15/15 on the Day 2 morning update.
  3. yoda
    Uh oh
  4. yoda
    18z NAM NEST and 18z NAM soundings still are really nasty. 18z NAM NEST even has some very high UDH swaths just north of DC. Some of the hodographs are very elongated and very curved too
  5. yoda
    12z NAM and 12z NAM Nest soundings look pretty nasty as well
  6. yoda
    06z NAM NEST has some pretty dangerous soundings for the area at 18z Mon... though the sim radar would suggest clouds over the area I believe. Also, 18z Monday is at the end of its run 06z NAM soundings are also dangerous for the region. When I say dangerous, I mean like we rarely see some of these types of soundings in our area/region IMHO
  7. yoda
    Some pretty nasty looking soundings on the 00z NAM at 21z Monday and 00z Tuesday across the region
  8. yoda
    Looks like there were a few LSRs of ping pong ball sized hail this afternoon... one on Shenandoah county; the other in Loudoun just NW of IAD
  9. yoda
    vere Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 OKC055-065-075-141-240115- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0127.000000T0000Z-240524T0115Z/ Jackson OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Greer OK- 757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GREER COUNTIES... At 757 PM CDT, a storm with a history of significant tornadoes was just southwest of Altus, moving northeast at 20 mph. An additional tornado was located between Altus and Duke with erratic motion. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Altus, Olustee, Martha, Headrick, Friendship, Altus Air Force Base, Humphreys, and Duke. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3455 9954 3467 9957 3474 9953 3477 9908 3447 9916 TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 248DEG 18KT 3462 9937 TORNADO...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
  10. yoda
    18z GFS looks like a significant severe weather episode for us Monday afternoon/evening
  11. yoda
    I will have to look it up after I get home from work... and I was 3 years old
  12. yoda
    BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service State College PA 535 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Centre County in central Pennsylvania... North central Juniata County in central Pennsylvania... Northeastern Mifflin County in central Pennsylvania... Snyder County in central Pennsylvania... Union County in central Pennsylvania... * Until 615 AM EDT. * At 532 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Poe Valley State Park, moving east northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. Numerous reports of downed trees have occurred with this storm over the past 30 minutes * Locations impacted include... Mifflinburg, Woodward, Burnham, Milroy, Highland Park, Middleburg, Yeagertown, McClure, Kreamer, Penns Creek, Beaver Springs, and Reedsville. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This is a dangerous storm. To stay safe, immediately move inside a well built structure and stay away from windows. This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather including large hail, destructive straight line winds and tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter such as an interior room, a bathroom, closet or basement. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this severe thunderstorm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
  13. yoda
    @high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe From this mornings AFD regarding Monday... already tossing out the significant severe weather episode words LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Shortwave ridging will build again on Sunday keeping convective cvrg isolated and mainly along the I-64 corridor. Memorial Day still looks like a very active severe wx day and the most active of all of next week. A deep upper level trough over the Great Lks region will push a strong cold front through the area Monday evening. Ahead of this front, widespread showers and thunderstorms appear definite with the potential for a significant severe wx episode given moderately strong bulk shear values of 30-40kt, high instability, and moderately steep mid- level lapse rates. GFS forecast soundings also indicate a tornado threat with 0-3 km SRH of over 200 m^2/s^2, EHI of 2-4, and high supercell composite values. The severe threat should end by 06Z Tue with frontal passage. There could still be instability showers Tue afternoon as upper trough axis pivots through, but the deep moisture should have been shunted south and east the night before.
  14. yoda
    MCD out for our far NW zones https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0891.html Mesoscale Discussion 0891 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Areas affected...Western New York into parts upper Ohio Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221628Z - 221830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is possible for parts of western/central New York into the upper Ohio Valley. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. An isolated brief tornado and large hail may occur with the stronger, more organized activity. DISCUSSION...Convection has been most intense right ahead of an MCV tracking into northwest Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. Destabilization continues to occur ahead of this activity and farther south into western Pennsylvania and vicinity. Convection is likely to continue in close proximity to the MCV as well as additional development within the Allegheny Mountains. Buoyancy may be more limited into southeast Ohio/northern West Virginia due to cloud cover. Observed morning soundings from the region showed mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. Deep layer shear this far east will be weaker given the displacement from the primary synoptic wave in the Upper Midwest. However, some modest increase in shear should occur through the day. Storms will be capable of damaging winds primarily. Some risk for a brief tornado is also evident given modest low-level hodograph turning on area VAD profiles. Large hail could occur with the strongest storms, but weak upper-level flow will likely keep this threat more isolated. A watch may eventually be needed should convective trends warrant. ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
  15. yoda
    SPC has nudged the eastern extent of the MRGL risk to the i95 corridor on the 1630z OTLK
  16. yoda
    12z NAM NEST and 12z NAM look decent around 6 to 8pm 13z HRRR is nice as well, stormy for the region after 22z to the end of its run
  17. yoda
    Morning disco talking up tomorrow potential and Memorial Day .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Stronger forcing for ascent will move into the area Thursday attendant to an upper trough and strong surface cold front approaching from the Midwest. Cloud debris and the front approaching during the early part of the peak heating window casts some uncertainty to the extent of instability. But, with stronger forcing and shear, there is at least a conditional risk for more organized strong to severe thunderstorms. It remains to be seen just how widespread the threat is, but storms may tend to focus further south and east toward the I-95 corridor where the potential for heating will last longest. Trends will need to be closely monitored over the next 24 hours, as upstream convection over the Midwest will dictate subtle shifts in (1) vort maxes embedded in the large scale flow, and (2) the extent of cloud debris that could inhibit heating. The front itself likely stalls to the north, but a wind shift or pre-frontal trough type feature should shift south Thursday night. Given the front(s) nearby, and lingering troughing and moisture, shower activity could last well into the night. Additional waves along the stalled front may lead to an unsettled Friday, as well. Although forcing and instability look to be a bit less, shower and thunderstorm potential will still be there especially further south near the I-64 corridor closer to the wind shift. It does not look like it will rain the entire day, but rather the potential for showers and thunderstorms will linger, with chances cresting during peak diurnal heating. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The weather pattern over the Memorial Day holiday weekend will be characterized by gradually lowering heights and surface pressures leading to a stormy pattern. Saturday should turn out rather active due to a low amplitude shortwave trough moving across the area that should act to enhance t-storm activity. Sunday appears to be the least active day due to shortwave ridging and some drying. Severe weather risk appears to increase markedly on Memorial Day due to strengthening wind fields aloft and strong shortwave energy moving across the area around the base of a deep upper level trough over the eastern Great Lks. A strong cold front will follow Monday night bringing cooler and drier conditions for the middle of next week.
  18. yoda
    SPC day 4 to 8 OTLK has a mention ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed... Spread among model guidance increases quite a bit by Monday. Some severe potential is possible anywhere from the Southern states to the Mid-Atlantic as the upper trough lifts east/northeast. However, details regarding storm evolution on Day 5/Sun into early Monday, along with differing evolution of the surface pattern by various guidance results in low predictability. By Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper ridge is expected to move from the western U.S. into the Plains. This should mostly shut down severe potential west of the MS River.
  19. yoda
    National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 409 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-230815- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 409 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and evening. A couple isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail are possible, mainly between 6 PM and 10 PM. Thunderstorms may also produce hazardous winds and waves over area waterways late this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon and early evening. A few storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail. Daily thunderstorm chances are forecast through the upcoming holiday weekend. A few storms may be severe during the afternoon and evening hours, particularly Saturday and Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed at times.
  20. yoda
    LWX mentions very isolated threat tomorrow, chance on Thursday, and then possibly substantial on Monday in the morning AFD Deep layer shear is expected to remain weak Wednesday (AOB 20 kts sfc-500 hPa). However, flow will increase subtly later in the day, and heights will begin to come down slightly as well. This, coupled with above normal temperatures and increasing humidity and instability will lend to a threat of at least widely scattered showers and thunderstorms come afternoon. The threat appears greatest west of I-95 further away from the departing ridge and any associated subsidence. A couple storms could produce a little hail or gusty winds given the increased instability, but the lack of shear will probably keep a more organized or widespread severe weather threat marginal, and relegated to north of US-33/west of US-15 for the most part. Heights fall more appreciably on Thursday as a surface cold front impinges on the area. Latest guidance times the front favorably with peak heating. The background airmass will be very warm and humid, but cloud debris from previous day`s convection over the middle of the country could inhibit more significant CAPE. If higher instability is realized, a more organized threat for strong to severe thunderstorm clusters could develop given the strong surface front and increasing flow/shear aloft in the right entrance region of a seasonably strong upper jet. The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms may be greater south of US-50/I-66 and east of US-15 where the potential for more heating is highest. Activity should gradually dissipate heading into Thursday night as daytime instability wanes and the front sags south. But, the front`s progress will be slow, so the potential of showers may linger well into the night south of US-50/I-66. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A front will remain generally north of the Pennsylvania Turnpike through early next week keeping the local area in a warm and humid air mass with the risk of almost daily afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. A well defined 700 mb shortwave-trough is fcst to approach the area Fri night with its axis crossing the area around 18Z Saturday. With shear vectors on the weaker side and slow storm motions, storms Fri afternoon and evening may pose a risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Saturday`s threat really depends on the timing of that shortwave as it appears the trough axis will be too far east to enhance t-storm activity. On Sunday, the models show significant 925-850 mb drying under low- mid level ridging, which is likely to keep t-storm activity isolated at best. On Monday, a potent shortwave-trough and attendant sfc cyclone will move across Ohio and northern Mid-Atlantic. This system could pose a more substantial severe wx threat given strong winds aloft especially if the timing of the frontal passage coincides with peak heating. The latest timing suggests a severe threat during the morning hours, but things could definitely still change between now and next Monday.
  21. yoda
    Thursday sounds interesting... from this mornings AFD .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... To the south of a deep upper trough tracking across Quebec will be a series of lower amplitude waves that race toward the Mid- Atlantic region on Thursday. As this occurs, a slow moving cold front is expected to push through the local area by midday into the evening hours. There is fairly strong mid/upper support with a belt of 500-mb west-southwesterlies around 40 to 50 knots. This is accompanied by ample right entrance region jet dynamics within a jet streak running between 100 to 110 knots. The key parameter that will dictate the degree of severe weather threat is the instability. At this point, even global ensembles are showing around 1,000 to 1,500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE on Thursday. This would be more than adequate to support severe convection given the extent of vertical shear in the profile. However, as usual, the near to short term trends of cloud cover which inhibits convective potential will need to be monitored ahead of the event. Besides the threat for showers and strong/severe thunderstorms, it should be a very warm day with decent humidity owing to persistent south-southwesterlies. Forecast highs are in the mid/upper 80s, with heat indices approaching the low 90s. The frontal boundary eventually slides off to the south by Friday morning.
  22. yoda
    What's going on in Cecil county? Never seen this before from LWX BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Law Enforcement Warning MD Cecil County Department of Emergency Services Relayed by National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 622 AM EDT Mon May 20 2024 ...Law Enforcement Warning... The following message is transmitted at the request of CCSO. Police activity in the area. Please stay indoors. There is currently no threat to the public. $$ OnSolve-e9a5f08051364d648cad1bae12903c97/MD Cecil County Department of Emergency Services
  23. yoda
    LWX hinting at chance of severe next week in their afternoon AFD LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A broad upper level ridge is forecast to be remain in place over the eastern seaboard on Tuesday with high pressure at the surface. A southerly return flow will lead to increasingly warming temperatures through the middle parts of next week. The SFC high pressure on Tuesday will keep the region dry, but an approaching cold front from the west will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday. Model guidance has trended slower with the mid-week system and there remains some uncertainty if there will be enough instability (CAPE) that overlaps with the favorable period for shear to produce a threat for severe weather. SPC is focusing on the Ohio Valley for SVR weather Wednesday into Thursday, but the CIPS machine learning model continues to suggest that there is a chance for isolated severe weather in our region during the middle and later parts of next week.
  24. yoda
    Been pouring the past hour here
  25. yoda
    Looks like its raining down there
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