yoda

So...

Good luck with that... I don't even see any 40s for lows east of the BR until probably October... so no real need for it for like another month lol

Tropical Storm Mindy Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132021 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Through the day, the area of disturbed weather in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has gradually become better organized on geostationary satellite and Doppler radar imagery. Earlier, a 1515 UTC ASCAT-C pass found a number of southwesterly wind retrievals in the 30-kt range on the southeast side of the formative circulation. The ASCAT-C Ambiguities at that time also hinted that a very small closed circulation was trying to develop along the edge of these stronger winds. Since that time, a well-defined circulation become evident on KEVX Doppler-radar with inbound velocities occasionally nearing 40-45 kt to the southeast of the radar center. These Doppler-radar winds have been increasing over the past couple of hours as the center moves closer to the radar and I am reasonably confident this circulation is now surface based. Just in the last hour or so, NOAA buoy 42039 reported a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 35 kt just southeast of the center, confirming the system now has tropical storm force winds. Thus, advisories are being initiated on tropical storm Mindy with maximum sustained wind of 35 kt. The most recent estimated motion following the center on radar is to the northeast at 050/18 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement that this quick motion should continue with a gentle shift to the east-northeast in the next 24-36 hours as the system is under the influence of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving across the eastern United States. On the current heading, the center of Mindy should move inland over the Florida Panhandle in the next 6-12 hours and then already be offshore of the southeastern United States by 24 hours. A gradual slowdown is expected thereafter as the cyclone is left behind by this mid-latitude trough and also becomes vertically shallow. Little intensification is expected prior to landfall, with land interaction resulting in Mindy weakening back to a depression by 24 hours. Conditions do not appear favorable for restrengthening off the southeastern United States as shear is forecast to increase above 30 knots in 24 hours. This shear will likely strip away from remaining convection, and both the ECMWF and GFS simulated IR brightness temperatures suggest Mindy should become a remnant low in the day 2-3 period. This remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough shortly thereafter. Key Messages: 1. Mindy is expected to produce heavy rainfall from the Florida Panhandle into southern portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Thursday morning. This rainfall may produce isolated to scattered flash, urban, and small stream flooding. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected through tonight in portions of the Florida Panhandle where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 29.0N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 30.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/1800Z 31.3N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 10/0600Z 32.3N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 33.4N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1800Z 33.3N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

So... a TC for like.... 6 hours?

Sounds like evening fun... afternoon LWX AFD .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Stacked low is located well to the north in Canada while a cold front trails through upstate NY and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. An MCV is moving through southeast VA this afternoon, and will likely represent the first "round" of thunderstorms which will brush by the Northern Neck and Southern Maryland. Guidance has been quite variable with where and when the next storms will develop, although so far it appears the stable layers in the 12Z IAD sounding are holding strong. The terrain and/or a weak pressure trough could serve as an initiation point later this afternoon. Additional convection could form or strengthen as the actual cold front presses eastward this evening. For this afternoon, moderate instability and DCAPE are in place near and east of the Blue Ridge, though shear is still lacking. Thus expect activity to be somewhat pulsey and disorganized. Increasing shear will overspread the region this evening, so storms may be able to organize into a line or clusters. Damaging winds will be the main threat, although some hail is possible. There may be a brief window for a tornado or two this evening as a low level jet spreads into the region. This jet and slow frontal motion may also result in some training of storms which could lead to some localized flooding. While the biggest severe weather threat will likely be this evening, showers and some thunderstorms will likely continue along the frontal zone through the night as it progresses eastward, some anafrontal in nature. Some locally heavy rain could continue during this time

Would think there will be a MCD coming soon for the area

1300z OTLK from SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Wed Sep 08 2021 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and scattered damaging thunderstorm winds are expected across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A high-amplitude mid/upper-level pattern will prevail over the CONUS this period, featuring: 1. A strong anticyclone moving slowly east-southeastward over the Great Basin and Four Corners region, anchored by a 598-600-dm 500-mb high, and 2. A well defined trough extending south-southwestward from a cyclone now over northeastern ON. As the cyclone moves northeastward to the QC Hudson Bay coastline, a series of shortwaves and vorticity maxima will traverse the amplifying trough over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front from southwestern ON across southwestern IN, southeastern MO, southern OK, northwest TX, and southeastern NM. A dissipating, quasistationary to warm frontal zone was drawn from the northern Chesapeake Bay region southwestward across middle/eastern TN to south-central TX. By 00Z, the cold front should extend from VT/eastern NY southwestward across south-central PA, middle/eastern TN, northern MS, and central/west- central TX. By the end of the period, the front should reach central/southern New England, southeastern VA, western SC, south-central AL, and portions of south-central/southwest TX. ...Northeastern CONUS to Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the midday through afternoon near the cold front, from northern NY across western PA, WV and eastern KY. Additional activity should form in the warm sector over the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. The most intense, well-organized convection in both regimes (which may merge over the Susquehanna/Delaware Valley region by late afternoon) should be in a corridor of greatest shear and return-flow buoyancy from eastern NY and VT southwestward toward the DC vicinity, with damaging to severe gusts being common. A few tornadoes will be possible as well, along with isolated large hail. At least isolated severe-wind potential may persist eastward over central/southern New England and the southeast NY/Long Island region this evening. Farther south into the Carolinas, activity will be less-organized, but still capable of isolated severe hail/wind. Isolated damaging gusts also may occur with the frontal convection in higher terrain of the central/southern Appalachians, amidst weaker but still marginally supportive instability. Strong southwesterly flow and broad height falls will spread over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today along/ahead of the front and east of the slowly progressive upper trough, with largely front- parallel winds contributing to a dominant quasi-linear convective structure. However, sufficient deep shear (35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes as far south as MD/northern VA) and low-level SRH (150- 250 J/kg effective values) will support early-stage discrete supercells, as well as line-embedded supercells, bows and mesovortices. Pronounced weaknesses in the 2-4-km hodographs remain evident, which further indicate potential for messy storm structures. A returning plume of mid/upper 60s F surface dew points is expected east of the Blue Ridge, and into southeastern NY/southern New England. This will act in tandem with diurnal heating to offset modest lapse rates aloft and yield MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range, generally increasing southward. MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are possible over southeastern VA and the Carolinas, but amidst weaker midlevel winds and deep shear supporting multicells and marginal/transient supercells.

*sees only a few clouds and blue sky* Well, guess that cancels the severe threat

LWX AFD from this morning... sounds like a fun afternoon and evening NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest surface analysis depicts a strong area of low pressure over central Ontario with its attendant cold front draped across the Great Lakes region down into Indiana/Ohio. The stationary front that had been sitting along the MD/PA border has lifted northward as a warm front this morning as high pressure moved offshore. Water vapor satellite imagery depicts the large- scale upper trough, whose axis runs from Ontario into Wisconsin. Radar/IR satellite depict some ongoing convective activity out ahead of the aforementioned cold front across the Ohio Valley, which is starting to taper off. With high pressure having shifted offshore and a warm front well to our north, strong warm air advection is beginning to take shape across the region. The first half of the day will be rather uneventful, with only a little early morning fog in the valleys in our far western zones perhaps. Cloud cover will gradually increase throughout the morning as warm advection increases. This afternoon is where things start to get a little more interesting. High temperatures are expected to rise into the mid-upper 80s this afternoon, with dewpoints rising into the mid-upper 60s and perhaps even some near 70. This will result in a fairly wide swath of moderate CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range ahead of the approaching cold front (primarily east of the Blue Ridge). Additionally, hi-res guidance hints at a corridor of even higher CAPE amounts (closer to 2500 J/kg). A subtle shortwave ahead of the main trough will move overhead this afternoon. This combined with 10-15 kts of surface SSW flow colliding with the bay breeze, should result in thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of the main line of storms, which will come through during the evening. This afternoon round could pose a threat for an isolated tornado or two as deep layer shear begins to increase. The primary convective mode with storms this afternoon will be supercellular. Tornado threat with this round would stem from backed low level flow near the bay breeze. Steep low- level lapse rates will yield the threat for damaging winds as well. Additionally, while not the largest threat, hail is still a threat with the fist round of storms. Think it will be mostly on the smaller side given weak mid-level lapse rates, but can`t rule out some larger hail should we get a stronger supercell to form. The second round of convection will come through during the evening hours. This will be more of a linear structure associated with the cold front. Primary threat with this round will be damaging straight-line winds. An isolated tornado also isn`t out of the question with round 2 either in any properly oriented evening linear activity as a low level jet increases ahead of the front. However, low-level winds may be more southwesterly by that point (limiting SRH). Time of day and less than ideal low level thermodynamics could be limiting factors. In addition to the severe threat, as the front becomes more parallel to the upper flow, forward propagation of linear features will tend to slow down as well. This could limit robust, forward- moving downdrafts. This fact may also lead to some locally heavy rain totals, especially in eastern part of the CWA, as clusters could train over areas for a time. Hydrologically sensitive areas due to recent rainfall will be most susceptible to any flooding, as precipitable water values will not be excessively high.

5/5/15 today from N VA into DC and much of MD

58 here... just took a nice morning walk.

Updated morning AFD from LWX AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1049 AM EDT Wed Sep 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Remnants of Ida will impact the area today through early Thursday as it exits to the north and east. High pressure will build over the area late Thursday and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Mid morning update: Previous forecast remains on track. Current surface analysis shows the remnant low pressure center associated with Ida centered along the WV/VA border to the west of Roanoke. A large shield of moderate to heavy rain has developed across western MD and the WV Panhandle as Ida`s remnant wind field interacts with a mid-latitude trough located off toward our north and west. To the east of the Blue Ridge, conditions are mostly dry this morning, and visible satellite shows breaks in the cloud cover developing across southeastern Virginia. These breaks in the cloud cover are expected to work their way northward along/east of the I-95 corridor for a few hours later this morning, providing some daytime heating ahead of Ida`s remnant circulation. A prominent band of showers and developing cumulus is evident on both radar and satellite from roughly CHO southward into NC. This band of showers is expected to mature into thunderstorms, some of which will become supercellular, as it translates northeastward into the destabilizing airmass further east. This band is expected to be the main focus for severe weather this afternoon, and should progress through the area from southwest to northeast between roughly noon and 6 PM. Given the environment in place, these storms may be capable of producing tornadoes, as well as some instances of damaging straight line winds. CAMs hint that another line of storms may develop later this afternoon into this evening behind this initial line, but hodographs look less favorable for tornadoes with the second round of storms. However, the threat for severe thunderstorms will remain non- zero. Flash flooding will be possible across western MD and the WV Panhandle with the steadier precipitation, and may also be possible further to the east on a more localized basis in association with individual thunderstorms. Instantaneous rainfall rates may be very high with any supercells that develop, as the strong rotating updrafts process large quantities of the high moisture content air. Instantaneous rainfall rates of 4-5 inches per hour were observed overnight with the single large supercell that traversed the forecast area.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SOUTHEAST VA/NORTHERN NC...AND FROM WESTERN NE INTO SD... ...SUMMARY... Several tornadoes and occasional damaging winds appear probable across parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the remnants of Ida move through the region this afternoon through this evening. Isolated strong/severe storms may also occur across portions of the northern/central Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into this evening... The remnants of tropical cyclone Ida will move east-northeastward from southern WV across northern VA this afternoon to NJ and the southern New England coast overnight. Mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints are already present across the Delmarva to the south of a stalled front that will drift northward as a warm front today, and pockets of surface heating will help locally boost buoyancy during the day. Low-midlevel vertical shear will increase some today with the approach of the Ida remnants, with effective bulk shear near 40 kt and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2. A broken band/cluster of supercells will likely form immediately in advance of the cyclone moving along the baroclinic zone by early afternoon and then spread east-northeastward toward the coast through late evening/early tonight, with the baroclinic zone demarcating the northern edge of the more substantial tornado threat. The combination of MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and the aforementioned vertical shear will support supercells capable of producing several tornadoes and occasional damaging gusts through late evening. Low-level static stability and the exact cyclone track will determine the extent of any tornado threat tonight across Long Island and the immediate southern New England coast

1300z SPC OTLK hits the tornadoes talk a bit harder

Betting the ENH risk will be nudged a bit farther SW on the 1300z SPC OTLK

Great, now you have the Mortal Kombat guy stuck in my head lol

Hmmm

10z HRRR has multiple rounds looking at sim radar... one at 18z or so then another one at 22z

Yes 06z NAM NEST

Pretty decent UD Helicity swaths across the region too Along with SIG TOR values of 3 to 5

PDS TOR sounding at DCA at 19z

06z NAM NEST sim radar looks ominous from 18z to 22z

Allegany County schools in Maryland closed today

Page County schools closing at noon today