yoda

Almost there... 60 at MRB... 48 at Oakland...

Day 10 00z Euro would definitely suggest a EC LF if it were to be correct

00z Euro would definitely suggest a hit nearby if it's Day 10 position were to be correct of soon to be Sam

Hmmm Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 PM CDT Wed Sep 22 2021 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal tornado and wind-damage threat will be possible this evening into tonight from the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. A few strong wind gusts may also occur in the Carolinas this evening. ...Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic... The latest water vapor imagery shows a high-amplitude upper-level trough located over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with south-southwesterly mid-level flow over much of the Northeast. At the surface, a 1003 mb low is located in far northwestern Pennsylvania. A pre-frontal trough extends southeastward from the surface low into west-central Pennsylvania and then southward into central Virginia. Thunderstorms are ongoing along and near the pre-frontal trough. Ahead of the storms, surface dewpoints are in the 65 to 70 F range and weak instability is present. The strongest instability is located from southeast Pennsylvania southward into far eastern Virginia where the RAP is estimating MLCAPE to be in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP near Washington D.C. has strong speed shear and veering winds with height in the lowest 1 km. This is resulting in 0-1 km shear in the 35 to 40 kt range suggesting that a marginal tornado threat could develop as the thunderstorms along the pre-frontal trough move eastward. The marginal tornado threat could affect much of Pennsylvania, Maryland and central Virginia along and near the axis of a 40 to 55 knot low-level jet. Any storm that rotates may also produce strong wind gusts.

Looks like the 00z Euro at Day 10 would suggest that Sam would feel some tug northwest with the trough moving through in NE US... but not enough for a recurve imo.

Last chance saloon tomorrow night into Thursday?

00z Euro at 240 looked interesting

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 VAZ025>027-029-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501-502-505-506-212215- /O.EXT.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T0300Z-210923T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Mount Storm, Sugar Grove, Woodstock, Petersburg, Charlottesville, Luray, Moorefield, Harrisonburg, Staunton, New Market, Shenandoah, Hightown, Bayard, Waynesboro, Mount Jackson, Stuarts Draft, Riverton, Big Meadows, Franklin, Oak Flat, Monterey, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Ruddle, Brandywine, Strasburg, Stanley, and Lovingston 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for * Portions of Virginia and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas: in Virginia, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Eastern Highland, Greene, Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Western Highland. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy, Western Grant and Western Pendleton. * From this evening through Thursday morning. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday morning across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, widespread rainfall amounts of three to five inches are expected by Thursday morning. However, localized amounts could exceed that, especially along the ridges. Flash flooding is possible.

Flood Watch National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 MDZ001-003-004-501-502-VAZ028-030-031-039-040-501-505-WVZ050>053-503- 504-212215- /O.EXB.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T1200Z-210923T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Garrett-Washington-Frederick MD-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Madison-Rappahannock- Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley- Jefferson-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- Including the cities of Shepherdstown, Purcellville, Charles Town, Cumberland, Winchester, Romney, Martinsburg, Keyser, Ballenger Creek, Berryville, Antioch, Front Royal, Russelldale, Grantsville, Frederick, Hagerstown, Mountain Lake Park, Frostburg, Fort Ashby, Elk Garden, New Creek, Madison, Paw Paw, Washington, Headsville, Warrenton, Oakland, and Ridgeville 1006 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has expanded the * Flash Flood Watch to include portions of Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia, including the following areas: in Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany, Extreme Western Allegany, Frederick MD, Garrett and Washington. In Virginia, Clarke, Frederick VA, Madison, Northern Fauquier, Rappahannock, Warren and Western Loudoun. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Eastern Mineral, Hampshire, Jefferson, Morgan and Western Mineral. * From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. * Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday morning across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, widespread rainfall amounts of two to four inches are expected by Thursday morning. However, localized amounts could exceed that, especially along the ridges. Flash flooding is possible.

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 304 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 VAZ025>027-029-036>038-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501-502-505-506-211515- /O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0018.210922T0300Z-210922T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- Including the cities of Mount Storm, Sugar Grove, Woodstock, Petersburg, Charlottesville, Luray, Moorefield, Harrisonburg, Staunton, New Market, Shenandoah, Hightown, Bayard, Waynesboro, Mount Jackson, Stuarts Draft, Riverton, Big Meadows, Franklin, Oak Flat, Monterey, Wintergreen, Stanardsville, Ruddle, Brandywine, Strasburg, Stanley, and Lovingston 304 AM EDT Tue Sep 21 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of Virginia and eastern West Virginia, including the following areas: in Virginia, Albemarle, Augusta, Central Virginia Blue Ridge, Eastern Highland, Greene, Nelson, Northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Page, Rockingham, Shenandoah and Western Highland. In eastern West Virginia, Eastern Grant, Eastern Pendleton, Hardy, Western Grant and Western Pendleton. * From this evening through Wednesday morning. * Showers and thunderstorms are expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday across the watch area. Given the local enhancement of the higher terrain and a very moist air mass, expecting an inch or two of rain with locally higher amounts possible. This could lead to instances of flash flooding.

Into NF most likely

Tropical Storm Odette Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 The circulation associated with the area of low pressure off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast has become better defined today, with a new center having developed near a persistent cluster of deep convection. This system has some non-tropical characteristics, with a developing frontal boundary draped around the northern and western side of the circulation. Although the convection is being sheared off to the northeast of the center, the structure still resembles that of a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-C pass from a few hours ago showed that maximum winds were 30-35 kt to the north of the center, thus advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Odette with 35-kt winds. With the re-formation of the center, the initial motion is uncertain but is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/13 kt. Odette is embedded between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the U.S. Upper Midwest and central Canada. The approach of this trough should cause Odette to accelerate toward the northeast and then east-northeast during the next few days. After about day 3, there is significant divergence among the models. The GFS ejects the system northeastward and stalls it over the north Atlantic, south of Greenland. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models, however, stall the cyclone sooner and have it meandering south of Newfoundland on days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC track forecast shows Odette slowing down significantly on those days (less than 5 kt on day 5) and is a blend of the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. Odette's transition to an extratropical cyclone is probably already underway. The storm is also centered over the Gulf Stream, where water temperatures are about 28 degrees Celsius, so in the short term it is likely that a combination of baroclinic and convective forcing will cause some intensification, despite deep-layer shear strengthening to near 30 kt. The global models suggest that Odette should become fully extratropical by 36 hours, and the intensity models indicate that the post-tropical low should peak in intensity in 48-60 hours. The low is then likely to occlude by day 3, a process which typically leads to gradual weakening, which is indicated in the official forecast. Odette is expected to affect portions of Newfoundland with strong winds and heavy rainfall Sunday and Sunday night as a post-tropical cyclone. Please refer to products from Environment Canada for additional information on potential impacts in Newfoundland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 36.7N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 38.3N 69.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 39.9N 65.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 41.6N 61.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z 43.6N 57.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 20/0600Z 45.0N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1800Z 47.0N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z 47.5N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Odette Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152021 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 17 2021 ...TROPICAL STORM ODETTE FORMS OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.7N 71.8W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Please refer to products issued by Environment Canada for Odette's potential impacts to Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odette was located near latitude 36.7 North, longitude 71.8 West. Odette is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue into tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Odette will move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and pass south of Atlantic Canada over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odette is expected to become a strong post-tropical low by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches

And PT tomorrow night lol

So you have chosen... suppression

This upcoming Thursday morning looks very nice on the 06z GFS... widespread upper 40s to low 50s

Ugh, pouring rain again I wish this was winter

Huge outflow boundary extending from Montgomery County in MD to near Fauquier County in VA on Radarscope

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern District of Columbia... Arlington County in northern Virginia... East Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Alexandria... Annandale... Springfield... Falls Church... Rosslyn... Crystal City... Reagan National Airport... Lincolnia... Lake Barcroft... Ballston... Seven Corners... Barcroft... Baileys Crossroads... Westover... Cherrydale... Rock Creek... Bolling Air Force...

Almost looks like the storms merger into a hook near Springfield lol

00z EURO says maybe some real fall weather by Day 10... below 0C 850s in the N Plains as a nice trough comes in 06z GFS says lulz nice try for any real fall weather till the very end of the run

Trying to. Been on hold with the IRS for the past hour. I paid my taxes late (it was like $200 -- I hadn't gotten one of my stimulus payments when I did my taxes way back in February when you could first start doing them, and I got a refund of like 300 dollars... 2 months later and the IRS was like nope, nice try, here's what you really owe -- I had finally gotten my last stimulus check by then.) Anyway, I forgot to pay... so I did last month online and took screenshots and all. Got a letter today saying I hadn't paid yet and I owed money still. I am like hol' up no sir... so waiting with all my info to talk to an actual person.