yoda

Hmmm... 00z Euro suggests to me a severe threat on Friday.. Maybe even late Thursday and Saturday?

Didn't check it until just now... but SPC also mentioned us again in the Day 4-8 outlook for Thursday into Friday

Monday severe threat... SLGT risk up on Day 3

30% hatched wind... 30% hail... and 10% hatched tornado on new Day 2 from SPC

Wizards are 2-0... could be a good season

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Next week looks like it will feature an active stretch of weather, with two systems impacting the area over the course of the week. Guidance is coming into relatively good agreement that a shortwave will be situated just off to our west at the start of the period on Monday morning. This trough and its associated surface low will track toward the east through the day, ultimately impacting our forecast area Monday afternoon into Monday night. A period of rain appears likely across the area, and a few thunderstorms can`t be completely ruled out as well, but low-level moisture and related instability appear to be lacking somewhat with this system. If instability were to be greater than currently modeled, there could be a conditional threat for some stronger storms given the impressive wind field, but that currently looks like an unlikely outcome. That system will progress off to our north and east on Tuesday, and brisk northwesterly winds will filter into the area in its wake. Upslope showers may accompany the northwesterly winds along the Allegheny Front, but elsewhere there should be a drying trend over the course of the day. Winds may gust to upwards of 30 mph. Wednesday looks like a quiet day as a narrow upper level ridge builds overhead between the two systems of interest. The second system of interest will move into the area on Thursday. While there`s still a decent amount of spread with respect to the finer scale details, the general evolution on the synoptic scale is for a potent mid-upper level trough to approach from the west as it simultaneously takes on a negative tilt. Low pressure at the surface is expected to track into the Great Lakes, with potentially a second area of low pressure developing along the coast. While it is too early to get into the finer details, this appears to be a very dynamic system that could potentially lead to some high impact weather. We`ll continue to monitor trends with this system over the coming days.

LWX in their AFD already saying 2nd system could be a high impact event

@Eskimo Joe would approve of the 2nd system the 12z Euro shows for late Thursday into Saturday

12z Euro looks ugly for next week... severe threat next Friday lol

No one liked the 00z GFS in fantasy land?

Large Day 5 area outlooked from S NE into C TX

An ENH risk appears with 30% sig severe hatching for C MO into N AR for Sunday per SPC... SW IL in 30%

Tuesday surprise? Day 4-8 SPC OTLK mentions potential

The MassMutual commercial with Ovie and his wife and Backstrom is silly

That HP needs to be stronger

Ofc 18z GFS shows fantasy hurricane way out

Looks like it's lifted reading the newest warning... but that was a nasty surprise in the middle of the night. Plus the warning stated that there was a TDS with debris in the air shown on radar

MRGL risk for Day 3 (Saturday)

But world class goal there to tie the game at 1

Lol US men's soccer team

Violently agree... but we both know they will never see the light of day

Mesoscale Discussion 1851 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Areas affected...Portions of eastern WY...the extreme western NE Panhandle...the far western Dakotas...and southeastern into east-central MT Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 130958Z - 131600Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates around 1-1.5 inches per hour, should occur this morning. Near-blizzard conditions are also possible with strong/gusty winds. DISCUSSION...A mature mid/upper-level cyclone evident on water vapor satellite imagery will continue to eject northeastward across the central/northern High Plains this morning. A deformation band on the back side of the cyclone is beginning to fill in as low/mid-level frontogenetic forcing increases. Current expectations are that a mostly north-south oriented band of moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas over the next few hours this morning, and gradually shift northward with time. Even though low-level temperatures are marginal (generally 28-33 degrees F), strong cooling aloft associated with the upper low should support snow as the main precipitation type. Lift through the saturated dendritic-growth layer and consensus of latest high-resolution guidance both suggest snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches per hours will likely be common, with locally greater rates possible. Finally, near-blizzard conditions with reduced visibilities should also occur across this region, as a strong pressure gradient and gusty winds will exist on the back side of a surface low that will develop northward from NE into central SD this morning. Indeed, blizzard conditions have recently been reported at KDGW in eastern WY. ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

Good morning OKC indeed

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 523 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Oklahoma Northwest Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 530 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...At least isolated intense supercells are expected to develop this evening across western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle/western North Texas near a northward-shifting warm front and a dryline. The environment will be very supportive of intense supercells capable of large hail and a tornado risk, potentially including a couple of strong tornadoes given seasonally rare low-level moisture and strengthening low-level shear/helicity. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Guymon OK to 50 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

80/50 tor probs 60/60 hail probs 60/40 wind probs