yoda

@mattie g does this help?

Should be a really intriguing AFD coming within the hour

Hitting the winds in all the watch language to...

H/T @CoastalWx

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 251 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-503>505-507-VAZ052>056-502-506-150400- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania- Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun- 251 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Significant snow and wintry precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are most likely, with up to 5 inches possible. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central and northern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hour late Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads.

Went all the way into i95 corridor

WSW expanded eastward to include i95 corridor and DC metro

Looks good... 2 to 4 is what I'm thinking as well for DC metro

Alot going on at h5 at 240 though

Lol at 240

I see below zero lows late next week along i81 corridor... single digits to i95 corridor

Arctic cold and not much

Remember, -PNA

12z GFS says mod snow DC metro 12z Mon... interesting

Lol NAM turns C VA into MD into an ice rink

Nice crunchy snow on the ground

I'll take the NAM... snow to ice to an hour or so of rain to dry slot

That's why I think it comes in light for a few minutes... then it's hot and heavy until the switchover. Rates will be over 1" per hour for however long we can snow IMO

I think we get one of those "walls of snow" that comes in from the SW hot and heavy... then we see how long we can hold on before the pingers start. If we can get the snow in here by let's say 19z... and get 4 to 6 hours of heavy snowfall... I would take that before we mix. Also seems that the dry slot will be moving through our area too on most models... so hopefully by the time we get above freezing its just some light rain and the dry slot ends our precip so we can at least enjoy the snow and ice that is left lol

lol 06z GFS drops a mini ice storm for DC metro... 0.3" to 0.5"... really weird

06z ICON would be a nightmare for DC... starts out in low/mid 20s for snow around 21z. Stays below freezing until around 04z or so. Quick spike to mid 30s or so for a few hours of light rain... then back to below freezing by 07z/08z. Precip is still around till just after 12z, so would precip would change back to either light snow or light freezing rain on top of what has melted. 32 degree line briefly gets to around BR for about 3 hours max... then rushes back eastward. BR and west would stay all frozen... BR to I95 would be a mess of snow to ice to light rain then back to some light ice/snow as the system occludes/pulls away

LWX morning AFD .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A dry night with some clearing as high pressure builds a bit more strongly to the south Saturday night will help allow temps to drop into the single digits in the cold spots and the teens for most everyone else, with many locales likely to see their coldest night for nearly 3 years. Rapidly moving and strengthening low pressure then becomes the main focus. The system will be moving at a fairly good clip, but the intense forcing as the warm advection is forced quickly over the departing cold air mass will mean business. The track of the low will ultimately be key as far as how far west the mixing and rain gets, and there remains some model uncertainty between the various suites, but are confident enough that our western half will see warning level snow such that, after collaboration with neighbors and WPC, it was decided to issue winter storm watches. This does not rule out winter storm warning criteria conditions further east, but confidence just isn't there especially given the long lead. However, at this time the most likely scenario is a heavy burst of snow on the front end for most as the storm moves into the region Sunday afternoon, following by a mix to ice during the evening and plain rain possibly for areas near and east of I-95. At this time icing is not expected to reach our far western zones, where the heaviest snow of a foot or more is possible. Where the snow and ice do change to rain, heavy rain will possibly result in minor flooding. Winds may also be quite gusty in those locations east of the low as it passes, and for all areas right after the low passes, with gusts possibly approaching 50 mph. Will be watching forecast trends for potential wind advisories. It must be noted that even areas which don't see warning level snow have the potential for a brief burst of very heavy snow before the changeover occurs, with rates possibly approaching those seen on January 3rd south of DC for a time. This could make travel very difficult during that time, most likely occurring late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The low looks likely to move fast enough such that heavier precip is moving out by late Sunday night, but some wraparound rain/snow is possible. Additional accumulations on the back side look minor, however. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A powerful low pressure system over southeast Pennsylvania will move quickly northeastward across New England Monday and then into the eastern Canadian Maritimes Monday night. Residual snow showers will be expected across our mountains in the west and along the Mason- Dixon region to as far south as northern suburbs of Washington D.C. Strong northwest winds will become westerly during the day as well before the low departs. Light additional snow accumulations possible Monday. Colder temperatures will set up shop as well. There remains the possibility that additional headlines may be needed for upslope snow showers on the back side of the departing low.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 MDZ003-004-VAZ031-036>040-050-051-501-505-WVZ052-053-142345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Berkeley-Jefferson- 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hours late Sunday into Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads.