yoda

06z GFS is tasty... warning even for most of the region... 4-8"

morning AFD from LWX about the "event" Thursday looks to be our next chance at any impactful weather. A emerging shortwave trough will deepen over the Central Plains as a surface low develops over the TN Valley. With the jet stream orientated in a SW to NE trajectory, patten looks indicative for a Miller B type of system: where an emerging low out of the TN/OH valley phases its energy with a developing low off Cape Hatteras. Guidance has been pretty persist on this set- up, resulting in a quick moving snow event. While not expecting amounts to be as drastic as they were yesterday at this time, do think this system is capable of producing a more widespread 1-3" or 2-4" event with locally higher amounts possible along the higher terrain due to upslope processes. Given the fact that this is still a few days away, the forecast is subject to change and confidence on any definitive outcome still remains low at this time. However, confidence is increasing for the possibility of a low end, plowable event. Best estimate for timing at this juncture would be late Thursday night into Friday morning, which would make traveling for the Friday morning commute hazardous.

00z EPS through 96 Around 30 of the 50 members have DCA >2" snow

Not as good as 12z... but I'd take this run and run lol. Wish it were better yes... but any snow right now is good snow

Nice 3-5 for everyone on the 00z CMC

I'm surmising that the RGEM would end up being like the 12z EURO if it went out another 6 hours?

Upper 20s and snowing at 84 is nice

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS as of 145pm

So... Winter Storm Watches by tomorrow afternoon for Thursday into Friday?

12z EPS out yet? lol

O/U DCA 20 tonight? I'm going with the over... 22 degrees for the low. Cause you know DCA has to mess something up lol

Latest PNS from LWX https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=lwx&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS

I saw some 6"+ reports... trying to confirm ETA -- Culpepper itself had 8"

looks like 6-10

FCPS is CLOSED tomorrow -- no virtual learning either https://www.fcps.edu/

It varies across the region a good amount. Per the latest reports: 1ENE Alexandria 7.5" at 12pm 1WSW Annandale 10.5" at 12pm Both reports are from trained spotters

yes please... would be a nice 3-6... maybe 4-8

Starting to see a lot of reports of trees and power lines down in Stafford/Spotsy counties

We don't even have to wait that long lol... just a few days

10:45am PNS still has the 7am totals from all 3 major airports

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1039 AM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will continue to track northeastward along a cold front this afternoon. High pressure returns for Tuesday before a weak cold front crosses the area on Wednesday. Another low pressure system is slated to cross the region late in the week. Drier weather returns over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A surface low pressure system currently over the Carolinas will track northeastward. The heaviest of snowfall is between Orange County in Virginia to Anne Arundel County in Maryland and about 20 miles on both sides of this line. Snow amounts have reached the 10-inch mark in parts of Stafford, VA within the past couple minutes. This tops the list so far with this winter storm event. The back edge of the snowfall is from northwest Albemarle County in Virginia to central Loudoun County in Virginia to northern Harford County in Maryland. Temperatures are in the lower to middle 30s across the region. Some low 40s closer to the metro areas and southern MD. We have increased snow amounts for central and eastern Virginia, and for parts of Maryland near and southeast of Washington D.C. In contrast, we have decreased snow amounts along the Mason- Dixon region and parts of eastern West Virginia since most of these locations have received very little to zero snowfall. Snow rates will be 1 to as much as 3 inches per hour where it is snowing heavily at this time and areas due east of there through mid afternoon. Snow will taper off then end from SW to NE through the afternoon hours as the low departs the area. Do expect the entire system to be offshore by early this evening. Cold air will remain in place overnight lows dropping down into the teens to low 20s for most.

Wonder who this is... right by me lol 0950 AM SNOW 2 WSW WEST SPRINGFIELD 38.76N 77.25W 01/03/2022 M6.3 INCH FAIRFAX VA TRAINED SPOTTER