Morning AFD from LWX
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Saturday will be the "calm before the storm" during the long
term period across our region. A strong 1040+ mb artic high will
be building to our north, setting the stage for much colder
air. Highs will likely not make it above freezing for most on
Saturday, but we should be dry during this period.
Elsewhere on Saturday, a winter storm will be brewing over the
central Plains and into the southeast. The first key feature
will be a very strong Alberta Clipper system that dives out of
Canada through the central Plains and into the southeast by
Saturday night. The upper low looks to cut off over the
southeast Saturday night.
Meanwhile, probably the most important piece of the puzzle will
be another upper low diving out of central Canada into the
Great Lakes region Sunday through Monday morning.
For our area, this sets the stage for a potentially high impact
winter storm across the region. Surface low pressure will slide
across the southeast before transferring energy off the east
coast into Sunday night. As is so often the case with these
storms, the track, as well as warm air aloft, are going to be
key in who gets an all snow event versus who gets a wintry mix
and who may even just get a plain cold rain. Guidance is
starting to come into at least some agreement that areas west of
the I-95 corridor could be in for a high impact winter storm,
while the I-95 corridor and areas east still hold some
uncertainty. Virtually all guidance at this point is at least
agreeing on a strong low moving up the eastern seaboard, it is
just a matter of how close it tracks to the coast. Again, as is
often the case, 20 miles can make all the difference. Those
details will have to be ironed out as we continue to move closer
to the event. For now, just be prepared for a potentially high
impact winter storm across the area, and check
weather.gov/lwx/winter for more updates on the forecast as we
get closer to the event.
One minor change on this cycle is that the guidance seems to be
speeding up in terms of when the low departs. By Monday morning
most of the precipitation should be off to our northeast. High
pressure then briefly returns through Tuesday, with highs
expected to be near seasonal averages.
