yoda

The snow map on the 00z GFS is lulz

Thats about 25% which get the 2" line near or into DC... not bad

18z GEFS is definitely better for those in EZF/RIC area and S MD

18z GEFS I'm going to guess will have a few snowy members, as in like 4". Haven't seen it, just surmising

Quite the tight snowfall gradient on the 18z RGEM... worse than 12z definitely... but goes from nothing for Ji to like 6 inches for me lol

FWIW, 12z EPS was quite tasty in the extended

That's because of the snowfall prior to that night

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Dec 31 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Widespread thunderstorms are expected from the ArkLaTex to the Western Appalachians on New Year's Day. All severe-weather hazards are possible including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper-level trough will be centered near the Great Basin to start the period. This trough will maintain its positive tilt as it shifts eastward across the Plains and into the Midwest by 12Z Sunday. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly from the southern High Plains across the Midwest and Ohio Valley Saturday to the Northeast by Sunday morning. A surface reflection of this mid-level shortwave trough is expected to travel along the front from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians... There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the destabilization and severe-weather threat based on the position of the position of the surface front and the strength of the surface low. The NAM is stronger with the surface low with a much farther north warm front bringing low 60s dewpoints north of the Ohio River into southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Southwest Ohio. However, the operational GFS is much weaker and southeast with the surface low and only brings low 60s dewpoints into south-central Kentucky. The ECMWF solution is between these two locations with the frontal position, which also closely resembles the GEFS mean. Therefore, the northern extent of the marginal and slight risk threat areas match the ECMWF and GEFS mean. A line of storms is expected to move through this region during the afternoon and early evening hours. Forecast soundings show more than 50 knots of flow only a few hundred meters above the surface. Therefore, mixing this strong flow to the surface should not be that difficult, even in a weak buoyancy environment. Low 60s dewpoints should yield MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg across southern Kentucky, which increases the confidence for severe winds as the squall line moves through. In addition, a QLCS tornado threat will exist given the strong low-level speed shear present ahead of this line of storms. However, the limited instability and veered surface flow will be limiting factors to a greater tornado threat along this portion of the line. ...Portions of the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley... A large area of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe, is expected to be ongoing from western Kentucky to northern Texas Saturday morning. As the surface low moves from the Plains into the Ozarks Saturday morning, this convection is expected to become better organized, likely into a squall line, and start to advance eastward. Dewpoints are forecast in the mid to upper 60s ahead of these storms, which should yield MLCAPE around 500 to 1500 J/kg from north to south. This should be more than sufficient to maintain a strong squall line through the afternoon and into the overnight hours across eastern Arkansas, most of Tennessee, and northern Mississippi and Alabama. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will result in strong low-level speed shear across the entire warm sector. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional flow in the lowest 1 km due to the veered surface flow across most of the warm sector as a result of the elongated nature of the surface pressure pattern. This should temper the tornado threat somewhat, but with the strong speed shear and the expectation of a well balanced squall line, the environment will still be supportive for QLCS tornadoes. Most guidance hints at the potential for some warm sector supercell development across portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee Saturday afternoon/evening. The ECMWF has been especially bullish with pre-frontal convection for the last several days, which continues through the latest 00Z run. Any strong supercells which can develop in the open warm sector will likely have the greatest threat for significant to potentially intense tornadoes. The most likely region for pre-frontal supercell development will be from eastern Arkansas to northern Alabama and possibly southern Tennessee where greater instability is forecast. Veered low-level flow will keep low-level directional shear limited during the first half of the day. However, at least slightly greater low-level turning is shown by forecast soundings during the late afternoon into the evening hours as surface flow remains south-southwest, while the low-level jet starts to veer more westerly as the main wave shifts east. This may result in a slightly higher tornado threat into the overnight hours from far eastern Mississippi into northern/central Alabama and northwest Georgia. ..Bentley.. 12/31/2021 Nothing says Happy New Year than a large 10% hatched tor prob

Nothing says Happy New Year than a large 10% hatched tor prob

where's snow88 aka metfan? lol 00z Euro looks good next weekend

00z EURO says hello next weekend

has DCA at 16/17 degrees 06z SAT lol (00z EURO)

Day 7 looks intriguing... tracks just too far north for most of us to get the real good snows and the HP in Quebec is weak sauce... but N VA/DC/MD/BWI crew get some fun and love of like 2-4/3-6

It is a lot better than the 12z run... but thats not saying much lol. Large area of around 1" of snow, mostly in VA into S MD

GFS won't be as good as the 18z run looking at h5 at 66

Um... 2" is mood flakes?

I'm not... just been checking in. I'm not expecting any snow for another 2 weeks IMO. If we get something Monday, cool.

SE VA deserves a snowstorm

Very sorry to hear this... you are in my thoughts and prayers

Southern Maryland into Eastern Shore snowstorm lol EZF to CHO gets to nearly 2"... RIC 4"

Another snowstorm on the 00z Euro at the Day 8/9 range... but mainly for northern third of LWX CWA

H/t @Sey-Mour Snow from the SNE thread for this

Ugly look on the GFS and Euro in extended

Also Friday and Saturday Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CST Tue Dec 28 2021 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day4/Friday - Arklatex to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from near the Baja Peninsula Friday morning to the southern Plains by late Friday night. This approaching shortwave and deepening lee cyclone across the southern High Plains will elicit a strong mass response across the Arklatex late Friday and into Friday night. As the low-level jet strengthens, storm coverage is expected to increase in a broad zone of isentropic ascent north of a warm front from southeast Oklahoma to the Tennessee Valley. In addition to this elevated storm activity, most guidance also shows surface-based storm development on the warm side of the boundary Friday evening into the early morning hours Saturday. A very moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of this storm activity with mid-60s dewpoints as far north as southern Kentucky at 06Z Saturday. Therefore, convection will form and propagate into an unstable environment which will allow thunderstorms to continue through the overnight hours and into the Day5 period with a severe threat throughout. Strong deep-layer and low-level shear will support all severe hazards. ...Day5/Saturday - Mid South and the Tennessee Valley to the Southern Appalachians... Severe weather will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period from the early morning thunderstorms across Arkansas and vicinity. There may be a slight lull in storm coverage/intensity during the diurnal minimum Saturday morning, as the lead wave continues northeastward and the primary trough approaches from the west. However, by midday, significant height falls will start to overspread the warm sector and widespread storm development is anticipated. The location of overnight convection will have a significant impact on the zones within the broader risk area where a higher severe weather threat will exist. However, all guidance shows a broad warm sector with a broad 50 knot low-level jet, which would foster an environment favorable for all severe weather types. The greatest uncertainties are related to the northward extent of the risk and the surface low track. Given the widespread convection expected north of the warm front, a convectively reinforced warm front could set up farther south than the surface low track may suggest. Also, global guidance still varies with the intensity and location of the surface-low as it tracks northeast. The track and intensity of this surface-low will have some impact on the storm evolution and intensity within the warm sector, especially as it relates to storm mode and the tornado threat. Maintained 15 percent probabilities from the previous Day 6 forecast with an expansion on the southern and eastern extent to account for the threat continuing late Saturday night.

Large SLGT risk from TN into the mid South for Day 2. Interesting re the bolded below Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Tue Dec 28 2021 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible for portions of the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough can be seen off the Oregon coast early Tuesday morning. This shortwave will round the base of the large-scale trough to near the Southern High Plains by 12Z Wednesday and into the northern Great Lakes by Thursday night. This will overspread weak height falls across the warm sector during the day Wednesday. Meanwhile, a lee cyclone is expected to develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle Wednesday morning and move quickly eastward along the surface front through the day. Guidance has come into better agreement showing a closed surface low developing along the front, but there still remains some uncertainty in the exact location and strength of this surface low. ...Portions of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley... A long-fetch Caribbean moisture feed will be in place across the Southeast on Wednesday morning with mid-60s dewpoints into southern Tennessee at 12Z. Low-level flow will strengthen in response to the developing surface low along the front Wednesday afternoon. This will advect higher theta-e air northward with mid 60s dewpoints into north central Tennessee and upper 60s dewpoints into portions of northern Mississippi and Alabama. Some breaks in the clouds are anticipated in this region as low-level cloud streaks advect northward across the warm sector, which may allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s. As a result, ample instability is anticipated across the warm sector, with MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg possible as far north as Columbus, Mississippi. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period near the Red River in southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas in response to increasing isentropic ascent as the low-level jet strengthens. This activity is expected to continue northeastward through the day and may eventually overspread the warm sector, and become surface based. The marginal and slight risk have been expanded northward to account for this possibility given the favorable severe parameter space across much of the warm sector Wednesday afternoon. The primary severe weather threat will be focused on thunderstorms east of this activity in a region of broad, weak isentropic ascent where a confluence band could set up off the Gulf of Mexico. Expect storms to develop out of cloud streaks which will be streaming north through the morning. 00Z CAM guidance appears to be subdued in reflectivity and updraft helicity depiction. Forecast soundings in proximity of this convection would suggest more intense storm development than is currently shown. CAM guidance has had similar issues in past cool-season Southeast severe events, and therefore it could be a false depiction of storm intensity based on the environment. However, there are times when lackluster CAM reflection of storm intensity is hinting at a greater problem with forcing. This is at least somewhat of a concern given the mostly neutral height tendency across the region for much of the event. Any storms which develop in this region will encounter favorable vertical shear for supercells with effective shear in excess of 50 knots. In addition, the weakly forced nature of the convection will likely favor a mostly discrete storm mode. These storms should have a tornado threat, given the strengthening low-level jet, with a broad region of 40 knots of southwesterly flow at 850mb depicted by most guidance. This will yield effective SRH around 250 m2/s2 which will be more than sufficient for a few tornadoes. An upgrade to enhanced (10%/sig) was considered across northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama, but ultimately settled on an expansion of the slight risk for this outlook. If guidance continues to trend toward a stronger surface low, and if CAM guidance starts to show more intense storm development, an upgrade to enhanced may be necessary. ..Bentley.. 12/28/2021