yoda

Weenie Law #2 I believe

If that SLP placement at 36 on the 18z NAM could be closer to the coast...

Basically 5-7 inches for everyone except extreme S MD on that map

I made the bad choice of looking at the 850mb temps

Yes please h/t @ORH_wxman

Bolded sounds tasty and fun URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-016-018-503>508-VAZ052>054-502- 506-060345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0200Z-220107T1000Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier- Eastern Loudoun- 233 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches. Isolated high amounts of around 5 inches are possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of northern and central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 9 PM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected between 10 PM and 2 AM when snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible.

Not official till I C and P all warnings and advisories in this thread lol

I know its unlikely, but would LWX go WSWatch for even for 3-5" considering the recent heavy snowfall in the SE zones (aka I95 corridor into EZF/S MD)? Even if LSR's are 12:1? 0.3" QPF (let's just say for DCA) would suggest near 4" (which is below the 5" WSWatch criteria)... but with powdery snow on top of wet cement snow/ice... wouldn't that create more hazards? Just a thought. I figure LWX takes that into account clearly... but wondering what others thought

I think 06z EURO was near 0.3" near DCA?

Sorry @mappy

Lol NBM is National Blend of Models... so I assume that this would be an excellent resource

12z NBM increases an inch or so over 06z run for most of the CWA

@ravensrule

12z WRF-ARW2 has some definite banding as the snow arrives

12z 3k NAM is 2 to 4 for most looking at Kuchera

Looks like 12z NAM is moving the s/w over New England north a bit, rising heights a tad through 26 Can see a slightly south movement of the QPF field and SLP placement comparing 12z 30 to 06z 24

Talking about SRs... wasn't there a website that showed that? Or forecasted? I remember seeing it before

Only if you accept being in a drought zone forever lol

43 of the 50 06z EPS individual members give KOKV 2"+

Per the latest zones... DCA is forecasted to reach highs around 30 on Tuesday. That would be the first time in a while of a subfreezing high at DCA, yes?

Re 6z EPS About 35 of the 50 individual members give DCA 2"+... around 13 or so give DCA warning criteria (around 5" or so)

Sorry had to clear space for the attachment... added now

6z EPS was a good increase for all