yoda

Nice morning for a long doggie walk

ENH risk now just in TX including DFW metro... SLGT risk in OK

Per 1300z OTLK from SPC: Mod risk added to N IA... 45% hatched hail added and 45% hatched wind added to W into N IA 15% tor probs added as well in IA

Maybe sneaky severe storm on Wednesday too? Morning AFD from LWX A warm front will return back north on Wednesday. Therefore, WAA will increase once again. If the warm front moves north of the region as indicated by most guidance, sun could aid in bringing temperatures towards the 80 degree mark east of I-81, with a few locations a degree or two higher. Rain chances on Wednesday are highest along the Mason-Dixon line closer to where a shortwave trough will pass through. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm across the far northwest given the forecast instability, though uncertainty remains if the instability will be surface based or elevated. Should greater instability be realized, some rotating updrafts aren`t out of the question given what appears to be supportive deep layer shear, but even then, am not sure that there would be enough CAPE for severe storms. Conditions should stabilize as diurnal heating is lost Wednesday evening into the overnight, with many locations drying out. Thursday will feature a potent cold front passing through the area into the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures Thursday will be highly sensitive to the timing of the cold front passage. Current guidance suggests a later cold front passage, resulting in warm southerly flow ahead of the cold front bringing temperatures to near 80 degrees again east of the mountains. The dynamics associated with the cold front will yield the next opportunity for rain showers and thunderstorms. This is another HSLC set up, with 50-60 kt bulk shear and mean CAPE less than 300 J/kg. A few ensemble members continue to bring CAPE values significantly higher near the metros late Thursday, but confidence is low at this time if the instability would be rooted within the boundary layer. Will maintain the potential for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening, some of which could be strong or even severe.

Thread soon?

MRGL for Thursday from SPC

Everyone gets a frost advisory tonight lol

Sounds like Thursday could be our next date to watch for possible severe per this morning AFD

Frosty! URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 128 AM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 MDZ003>006-008-507-508-WVZ051>053-111300- /O.CON.KLWX.FR.Y.0001.220411T0400Z-220411T1300Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Reisterstown, Cockeysville, Elkton, Jarrettsville, Aberdeen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 128 AM EDT Sun Apr 10 2022 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 will result in frost formation. * WHERE...In Maryland, Southeast Harford, Northwest Harford, Northern Baltimore, Carroll, Frederick MD, Washington and Cecil Counties. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Morgan and Jefferson Counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Frost could damage sensitive outdoor vegetation if left uncovered.

Stupid Capitals

If we have some good CAPE to go along with the strong wind fields, sure

Where's the thread from @weatherwiz about this threat?

Can we have some sun and like, low 70s for a few weeks please?

Large 30 percent added on days 4 and 5 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090900 SPC AC 090900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A substantial, multi-day severe thunderstorm event will continue on Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across much of the central CONUS. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should occur. ...Day 4/Tuesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest... Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement regarding the eastward progression of an upper trough across the western/central CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone is forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through the day, reaching the vicinity of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night. Low-level moisture will advect rapidly northward ahead of the surface low and east of a dryline across parts of the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley. Rather steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to be present over much of the warm sector, which should aid in the development of moderate to strong instability east of the dryline by Tuesday afternoon. As mid-level height falls and related ascent preceding the upper trough overspread the southern/central Plains, convection will likely initiate along the dryline from eastern KS to central TX. Even with deep-layer shear forecast to remain fairly modest through the day, the large reservoir of buoyancy will likely support robust severe thunderstorms. Large to very large hail should occur with initially discrete convection, and damaging winds will be a concern as convection grows upscale Tuesday night. Greater tornado potential may focus across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest/mid MS Valley, where better low-level shear should be present owing to a strengthening low-level jet. A 30% severe area has been included where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring Tuesday afternoon/evening. ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi Valley/Midwest and Southeast... Convection still posing some severe threat may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South in a strong low-level warm advection regime. As the large-scale upper trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS, low-level moisture should continue to stream northward across the lower/mid MS Valley into parts of the Midwest. There are some differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of this upper trough on Day 5/Wednesday. Still, it appears likely that scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will develop across the broad warm sector and to the east of a cold front/dryline through much of the day. Strong deep-layer shear should combine with adequate instability to support updraft organization. All severe hazards appear possible with this convection, and any supercells will pose a threat for tornadoes in addition to large hail and damaging winds. Even with lingering uncertainty regarding the possible effect of early-day convection and some model differences in the placement of the upper trough and related surface features, enough confidence exists to include a 30% severe area for parts of the ArkLaTex into the lower MS Valley and Mid-South. This region appears to have the best chance for substantial destabilization Wednesday afternoon and discrete supercells. An isolated severe threat will probably persist into Wednesday evening/night across parts of the Midwest into the lower OH Valley and Southeast. Even though low-level moisture and instability should gradually decrease with eastward extent across these regions, both low-level and deep-layer shear will likely remain strong. This may support a continued severe threat through much of the overnight hours.

https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/summaries_and_publications/extremes.html

Chance of a frost/freeze early next week before that though

Second TOR confirmed from March 31st

Hatched tor on day 2 1730 OTLK

10% tor added for N LA into W MS on 1630z OTLK

The 06z GFS is trying to say its 46 degrees at that time at DCA... so its showing -20 temp anomalies because its supposed to be in the upper 60s per climate

I'll take the under... always seem to have a river wind that denies us

Middle of the week threat maybe?

LWX says few more hours to go in updated AFD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make another brief return early next week before unsettled weather returns by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 PM Update: A cold front currently situated over far western portions of the forecast area will continue to sweep eastward over the next few hours. Behind the front, conditions will become stable, ending any threat for thunderstorms. Currently there is a cluster of thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor in northeast MD, and a scattering of thunderstorms trailing behind that through the center of the forecast area. Current SPC Mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to the east of the front, with effective shear values of 50+ knots. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms may continue to be possible over the next couple of hours. A strong low-level jet is present to the east of I-95 ahead of the northeast MD storms, but winds are much weaker at low levels farther west (despite the strong winds still present at mid- levels). As a result, any residual (low- end) tornado threat would be across northeastern MD. Damaging winds and large hail can`t be ruled out with the storms further to the west.

Looks like one more STW for you tonight lol

Instead of saying FILTERED sunshine... i typed FILETED sunshine through the clouds