yoda

Huh? The 06z Euro was 2-4 for just about everyone.

Possibly... but its going to pack a punch I hope lol https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0036.html

Slowly increasing

hmmm

The model jousting always makes think of this when we come down to the final hours before the storm

06z GFS says it's not backing down and goes all in again

Morning AFD from LWX... they thought of upgrading to warnings around DC metro This system will continue to carve out an upper-level trough upstream today, and that jetmax and the upper-level trough axis will pass through the region tonight. This will cause surface low pressure to strengthen on the boundary to our south. The jetmax will track far enough to the south to put is in a favorable region of upper-level divergence, and the upper-level trough axis will actually turn toward a negative tilt as it passes through our area. This will case the coastal low to strengthen. While this system will not phase until it is well to our northeast, it does appear that the negative tilt will have enough of a reflection in the lower levels and at the surface to produce an area of low-level frontogenetical forcing. Temperatures will remain plenty cold enough due to the high settling overhead today. Therefore, a band of moderate to perhaps even heavy snow is expected tonight. The one thing preventing higher snowfall amounts will be that this is fast moving. Snow is expected to overspread the Allegheny and Potomac Highlands later this afternoon, and then across the rest of the area from southwest to northeast this evening. This system will quickly move off to the east late tonight with snow dissipating from west to east. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the Blue Ridge Mountains, and portions of the Potomac Highlands and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for all other locations. The band of snow combined with higher SLR`s is why the warning was issued for those areas. Snowfall totals around 4 to 8 inches are most likely. Across the rest of the area, snowfall totals around 2 to 4 inches are most likely. However, there are signs that a localized band of heavier snow is possible. There is still some uncertainty as to exactly where this will setup and exactly how strong it will be. The more negative tilt to the trough, the stronger the low-level frontogenetical forcing will be. The 00z GFS is most bullish with this. As of now, the most likely area for it to setup would be somewhere near central Maryland (southern suburbs of Baltimore) to around Washington DC and the nearby suburbs. Confidence was not high enough to upgrade to a warning due to the uncertainty previously mentioned, but localized amounts around 5 to 6 inches are possible. Either way, with cold temperatures in place and accumulating snow, conditions will deteriorate once precipitation begins. Even though it is a short duration event, snowfall rates around 1 inch per hour (due to the banding snow) are likely, and this will cause snow covered and slippery roads to develop quickly for most areas. Snow may mix with a little sleet/rain at the beginning across our extreme southern zones in central VA and southern MD, but if there is a mix it will change to snow.

You can never be forced to watch the best team in hockey

Weenie Law #2 I believe

If that SLP placement at 36 on the 18z NAM could be closer to the coast...

Basically 5-7 inches for everyone except extreme S MD on that map

I made the bad choice of looking at the 850mb temps

Yes please h/t @ORH_wxman

Bolded sounds tasty and fun URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-016-018-503>508-VAZ052>054-502- 506-060345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0200Z-220107T1000Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier- Eastern Loudoun- 233 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches. Isolated high amounts of around 5 inches are possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of northern and central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 9 PM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected between 10 PM and 2 AM when snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible.

Not official till I C and P all warnings and advisories in this thread lol

I know its unlikely, but would LWX go WSWatch for even for 3-5" considering the recent heavy snowfall in the SE zones (aka I95 corridor into EZF/S MD)? Even if LSR's are 12:1? 0.3" QPF (let's just say for DCA) would suggest near 4" (which is below the 5" WSWatch criteria)... but with powdery snow on top of wet cement snow/ice... wouldn't that create more hazards? Just a thought. I figure LWX takes that into account clearly... but wondering what others thought

I think 06z EURO was near 0.3" near DCA?

Sorry @mappy

Lol NBM is National Blend of Models... so I assume that this would be an excellent resource

12z NBM increases an inch or so over 06z run for most of the CWA

@ravensrule

12z WRF-ARW2 has some definite banding as the snow arrives

12z 3k NAM is 2 to 4 for most looking at Kuchera