yoda

Yay? URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 MDZ003>005-503-505-VAZ025>031-038>040-050-051-501-502-505-507-508- WVZ051>053-270245- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.A.0003.220428T0500Z-220428T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan- Berkeley-Jefferson- Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek, Eldersburg, Westminster, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Staunton, Waynesboro, Stuarts Draft, Harrisonburg, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray, Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange, Gordonsville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw, Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown 233 PM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022 ...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 possible. * WHERE...Portions of north-central Maryland, the eastern panhandle of West Virginia, and the central and northern Virginia Blue Ridge, Shenandoah Valley and Piedmont. * WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing.

Looks like it had a really nice hail core too for a while

It looks like it probably is going to come down to tiebreaker between our teams... if we have same number of points it goes to regulation wins and then if still tied, regulation and overtime wins. As of this morning, both teams have 35 regulation wins, so tied there. 2nd tiebreaker Penguins have, 41 to 39 over the Capitals, which is ROW). WSH has vs TOR/vs NYI/@ NYI/@NYR left PIT has @ DET/@ PHI/vs EDM/vs CBJ left Don't forget about Boston either... they also have 99 points but have 1st WC position right now due to one less game played. They play the Rangers today at 3pm. Boston currently has 36 regulation wins... so if WSH and BOS tie at end of season on points, Boston would get #1 WC and WSH would be #2 WC. If WSH and BOS were to tie on points and regulation wins, Boston wins 2nd tiebreaker of ROW 45-39

Lol Sunday mid 80s and then Wednesday upper 50s for highs

Impressive amounts for mid-April Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 602 PM EDT Mon Apr 18 2022 The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 8 hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to cooperative and CoCoRaHS observers, Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available on our home page at weather.gov/baltimore ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL MEASURED (inches) MARYLAND ...Allegany County... Frostburg 6.0 220 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Frostburg 2 ESE 6.0 119 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Ridgeley 1 W 5.0 500 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Ridgeley 1 NW 4.8 235 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cumberland 1 SSE 4.4 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cresaptown SSW 3.6 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter La Vale W 3.0 100 PM 4/18 From MDOT at Lavalle ...Carroll County... Manchester 2 NW T 422 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Thurmont 3 N 3.5 500 PM 4/18 NWS Employee Middletown 1 SSW 0.2 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Garrett County... Warnocks 2 NNW 3.0 115 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Grantsville 5 W 2.0 300 PM 4/18 Dept of Highways Deer Park 6 NE 1.7 600 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Howard County... Marriottsville 2 SSW T 1100 AM 4/18 NWS Employee Scaggsville 1 ENE T 1112 AM 4/18 NWS Employee Columbia T 1055 AM 4/18 NWS Employee ...Montgomery County... Washington Grove 1 N T 1118 AM 4/18 Trained Spotter Laytonsville 2 WNW T 1038 AM 4/18 sleet Damascus 3 SSW T 410 PM 4/18 Co-Op Observer Gaithersburg 1 WNW T 1030 AM 4/18 sleet ...Washington County... Hancock 1 ESE 3.0 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Pecktonville 3 NNW 2.5 310 PM 4/18 NWS Employee Sabillasville 2 NNW 2.0 145 PM 4/18 CoCoRaHS Boonsboro 3 NNE 1.8 400 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Hagerstown 1 ENE 1.2 400 PM 4/18 CoCoRaHS VIRGINIA ...Albemarle County... Monticello 2 NNE T 115 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Augusta County... Fishersville 1 NE 0.5 125 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Fairfax County... Chantilly 2 ENE T 1100 AM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Frederick County... Hayfield 1 NE 3.5 445 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cross Junction 1 WSW 3.1 545 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Hayfield 1 N 2.4 130 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Winchester 4 E 1.0 150 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Stephens City 2 E 0.6 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Highland County... Hightown 3 NW 3.3 1252 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Hightown 3 WNW 2.5 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Monterey 2.5 342 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Loudoun County... Round Hill 1 WNW 2.9 430 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Purcellville 1.6 330 PM 4/18 NWS Employee Hillsboro 3 NW 1.5 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Dulles International T 200 PM 4/18 Airport ...Madison County... Big Meadows 1 SSE 6.0 340 PM 4/18 Park/Forest Srvc ...Page County... Ida 1 SW 4.0 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Honeyville 1 ESE 1.3 230 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Prince William County... Woolsey 1 SW T 1015 AM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Rappahannock County... Chester Gap 5.0 420 PM 4/18 Public Sperryville 2 SE 1.0 1152 AM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Rockingham County... Bridgewater 2 E 2.0 200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Dale Enterprise 1 ES 1.0 1200 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Warren County... Karo 1 WSW 1.9 320 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Riverton 1 WNW 1.8 410 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Linden 3 W 0.3 1220 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter WEST VIRGINIA ...Berkeley County... Bunker Hill SE 3.1 345 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Martinsburg 2 E 3.1 400 PM 4/18 NWS Employee Winebrenners Cross 4 2.5 340 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Grant County... Mount Storm 2 SSW 5.2 330 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Petersburg 1.0 1138 AM 4/18 Co-Op Observer ...Hardy County... Fisher 3.0 116 PM 4/18 Public ...Jefferson County... Bloomery 3 SSE 4.5 435 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Shepherdstown 2 N 1.5 245 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Millville 1 ESE 1.4 402 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Shepherdstown 1 NW 1.2 301 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Mineral County... New Creek 3 NW 3.6 300 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Burlington E 2.5 245 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Keyser 2.5 1230 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Keyser 2 SSW 2.0 1230 PM 4/18 Co-Op Observer ...Morgan County... Smith Crossroads 1 W 5.4 530 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cherry Run 3.0 300 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter ...Pendleton County... Deer Run 2 WSW 3.0 551 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter Cherry Grove 6 WSW 2.0 1231 PM 4/18 Trained Spotter

Hmmm... which will it be? Afternoon AFD from LWX... I know which one @nj2va is rooting for Thereafter, longwave ridging is expected to build overhead for Friday into the weekend, as troughing becomes established over the Rockies, as well as over the North Atlantic. This will lead to a prolonged stretch of dry conditions. There is some uncertainty however with respect to temperatures. Some deterministic models and ensemble members try to move a backdoor cold front into the area by later Friday into Saturday. As a result, various ensemble members of the GEFS/EPS show highs on Saturday ranging anywhere from around 50 to near 90. There is still some spread in the temperature forecast for Sunday too, but ensemble members favor warmer solutions as the upper level ridge axis progresses overhead.

Report of 1.8 inches in Round Hill

Yay snow lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 932 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 MDZ001-501-VAZ503-507-508-WVZ501-503-505-190000- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0025.220418T0900Z-220419T0000Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Western Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton- 932 AM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Garrett and extreme western Allegany counties in Maryland, western portions of Grant, Mineral and Pendleton counties in West Virginia, western Highland County and the northern and central Blue Ridge in Virginia. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning and evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most snow accumulation will be above 2000 feet and will be mostly confined to unpaved surfaces, though some slush on roads is likely.

The new MCD I think explains why -- at least down in MS and LA https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0482.html Mesoscale Discussion 0482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...portions of central/northern LA into southern/central MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 123... Valid 132036Z - 132200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 123 continues. SUMMARY...Convection is slowly increasing in coverage and intensity. Should semi-discrete cells ahead of the cold front become better organized, the tornado threat will increase over the next 1-3 hours. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to increase across northern/central LA this afternoon. An additional band of convection is also noted along a weak low-level confluence band from near HEZ in MS to BTR in LA. Moderate instability resides across the region where upper 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints are in place. Convection has still been struggling to organized, despite effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt and sufficient large-scale ascent. Of note in visible satellite loops is that while storm motion is toward the northeast, the anvils attached to stronger storms have been spreading east or even southeast. This is consistent with forecast hodographs showing backed midlevel winds, and as a result, some cooling within (from anvil shadow), and precipitation into storm inflow, may be occurring, ultimately causing issues for storm organization. With time, RAP forecast hodographs across parts of northern LA into central MS improve and would allow convection to become better organized and updrafts to remain sustained over a longer time period within the favorable thermodynamic environment. If this occurs, any discrete convection would see an increase in tornado potential, with perhaps a strong tornado or two occurring over the next 1-3 hours. Otherwise, convection further west should consolidate near the cold front into early evening with an attendant risk for damaging gusts and QLCS tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 04/13/2022

@nj2va is the most pleased

Afternoon extended AFD from LWX is... lovely Conditions may potentially turn active again on Monday as a complex storm system approaches the area. A weak disturbance in the southern stream, may potentially phase with a much more potent trough approaching within northwesterly flow in the northern stream and form a coastal low. There`s a fair amount of spread with with respect to how this interaction will occur, and what our ultimate forecast will look like, but at this point it`s safe to say that there will be at least some chance for rain across the area late Sunday night through Monday. Precipitation may even linger into Tuesday, depending on how things unfold. Temperatures should run well below normal, and some snow may even be able to mix in with the rain in the mountains. We`ll continue to monitor the forecast for this system as we move closer in time.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas The Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A broken band of storms in Arkansas will continue to spread eastward toward northern Mississippi and western Tennessee through the afternoon/evening, with isolated supercell development possible ahead of the ongoing Arkansas storms. A mix of clusters/line segments and supercells support all severe hazards, including the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes, corridors of damaging winds to 75 mph, and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Dyersburg TN to 50 miles southwest of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

5 to 6 foot drifts as well

I have that bookmarked Doesn't LWX though only count the 5 min obs? Or something like that... at least I thought that's how it went

Developing storm out towards W MD near the Cumberland area

Says it was 83 at 2pm per the hourly weather obs 87 at CHO though 85 at RIC

Slight taste of summer today... now if we could only get an evening storm to go with it

Tornado Watch coming shortly Mesoscale Discussion 0476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Ohio Valley and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 131732Z - 131930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Rapid destabilization is expected across portions of the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valley DISCUSSION...A stable airmass is currently in place across the lower Ohio Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley in the wake of a morning MCV. However, low-level moisture is expected to improve significantly over the next several hours. The leading edge of richer Gulf moisture can now be seen on visible satellite where the cu field is expanding north across Mississippi and western Alabama. Extrapolating northward movement of this better moisture and northeastward movement of ongoing thunderstorm activities, it appears better low-level moisture will arrive prior to the convective line east of the Mississippi River and possibly slightly west. Expect this better moisture to reach the Missouri bootheel around 19-20Z, southern Illinois 20-21Z and southern Indiana around 22Z. MLCAPE is expected to increase to the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range ahead of these storms which should be sufficiently unstable to not only support a significant severe weather threat with the squall line, but also potentially allow for some more discrete convection to develop ahead of the line. In addition, surface winds are expected to back across the warm sector as the upper-level trough advances northeastward. Therefore, significant elongation of the low-level hodographs is anticipated. Therefore, all severe weather hazards are expected this afternoon/evening including the potential for 75+ mph wind gusts and a couple of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Bentley/Thompson.. 04/13/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LZK...

BWI was 82 at 1pm obs

For a few severe wind gusts

Tornado Watch up for S IL into SE MO

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Wed Apr 13 2022 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR/MS/TN/MO/IL/IN/KY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Mid-South and lower/middle Mississippi Valley and Midwest. Tornadoes, some of which will be strong, widespread and potentially significant damaging thunderstorm winds, and large hail are likely especially within the Moderate and Enhanced Risk areas. A severe-storm outbreak is expected today into tonight. Widespread severe storms are likely across a very broad north-south region from the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South into the Midwest, with atmospheric ingredients favorable for all severe hazards, including potentially significant/intense severe storms. ...Mid-South/Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley/Midwest... An upper trough, with its axis centered over the High Plains early today, will eject northeastward toward the Midwest/Ohio Valley, with a pronounced strengthening of mid/high-level jet stream winds (80-110 kt) particularly over the Ozarks/Midwest/Ohio Valley. These strong winds and related height falls/forcing for ascent will overspread a semi-moist boundary layer (low to middle 60s F surface dewpoints) across the Midwest ahead of an eastward-moving cold front, with more consequential moisture availability (upper 60s F) expected across the ArkLaTex/Mid-South/Lower Mississippi Valley, where severe/supercell-conducive wind profiles will exist even well south of the stronger portions of the polar jet. Speaking to early morning airmass characteristics, pre-dawn surface analysis in conjunction with 00z and 06z (via PERiLS project) upper-air analysis/trends reflect some air mass impacts via a persistent MCS and resultant MCV across western Tennessee and nearby ArkLaMiss. Observed meso-high and MCS-aftermath dry air in vicinity of the ArkLaMiss are expected to decay relatively early today, although these factors cast some uncertainty for the spatial details of later-day availability of rich moisture. For these reasons, along with a considerable amount of upstream early day convection/cloud cover, an upward adjustment to the current Moderate Risk category does not appear prudent at this time /13z/. That said, regarding the early day MCV/lingering outflow, an ample moisture reservoir over east Texas (850 mb dewpoints 12+C) is expected to largely replenish the broad warm/moist sector into the afternoon (reference 12z Shreveport LA observed sounding etc.), which will be beneath a notable eastward-extending elevated mixed layer. For short-term details across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex, see Mesoscale Discussion 471. Regarding central/southern Missouri and western Illinois in the short-term, see Mesoscale Discussion 472. By midday/early afternoon, moderate to strong instability and steadily weakening CINH will be in place across Arkansas/Louisiana toward the Lower Mississippi Valley, where model forecasts have MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will be favorable for supercells, initially capable of large hail and tornadoes. Discrete supercells ahead of the organizing squall line will have the potential for strong/intense tornadoes including some that are potentially long-track, particularly as the low-level jet further strengthens across the region later this afternoon into early evening. This corridor of stronger/longer-duration tornado concern is focused across the Mid-South/ArkLaMiss vicinity. Otherwise, potentially widespread/locally significant damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also evolve as the squall line organizes, intensifies, and moves eastward with embedded bowing segments, although QLCS-related tornadoes can also be expected. The damaging wind/tornado risk may linger through the late-evening/overnight hours across portions of Mississippi/Alabama and southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. This would be via a persistence of moist and strong/confluent low-level flow, although 850 mb winds are forecast to gradually weaken overnight. For areas northward into/across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana, it appears likely that storms will increase and intensify initially across southern Missouri, as early as this morning in vicinity of the outflow-enhanced effective cold front. These storms will pose a damaging wind and some severe hail risk especially into the afternoon as they organize and race east-northeastward. The potential for tornadoes will exist as well, in dual scenarios including any pre-squall line supercellular development and within an evolving QLCS itself, especially as storms encounter a dramatically strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet (50-60 kt at 850 mb) across southeast Missouri and areas eastward across Illinois/Indiana/Kentucky. Tornadoes and potentially widespread/locally significant damaging winds are likely especially through the afternoon and early/mid-evening hours.

Sounds like SPC was tossing the HIGH risk around reading the 1300z SPC OTLK Guyer/Smith co-wrote the 1300z SPC OTLK FWIW