yoda

06z ICON looks good to me... those temps though are a bit lol... teens and 20s

Morning AFD from LWX .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Saturday will be the "calm before the storm" during the long term period across our region. A strong 1040+ mb artic high will be building to our north, setting the stage for much colder air. Highs will likely not make it above freezing for most on Saturday, but we should be dry during this period. Elsewhere on Saturday, a winter storm will be brewing over the central Plains and into the southeast. The first key feature will be a very strong Alberta Clipper system that dives out of Canada through the central Plains and into the southeast by Saturday night. The upper low looks to cut off over the southeast Saturday night. Meanwhile, probably the most important piece of the puzzle will be another upper low diving out of central Canada into the Great Lakes region Sunday through Monday morning. For our area, this sets the stage for a potentially high impact winter storm across the region. Surface low pressure will slide across the southeast before transferring energy off the east coast into Sunday night. As is so often the case with these storms, the track, as well as warm air aloft, are going to be key in who gets an all snow event versus who gets a wintry mix and who may even just get a plain cold rain. Guidance is starting to come into at least some agreement that areas west of the I-95 corridor could be in for a high impact winter storm, while the I-95 corridor and areas east still hold some uncertainty. Virtually all guidance at this point is at least agreeing on a strong low moving up the eastern seaboard, it is just a matter of how close it tracks to the coast. Again, as is often the case, 20 miles can make all the difference. Those details will have to be ironed out as we continue to move closer to the event. For now, just be prepared for a potentially high impact winter storm across the area, and check weather.gov/lwx/winter for more updates on the forecast as we get closer to the event. One minor change on this cycle is that the guidance seems to be speeding up in terms of when the low departs. By Monday morning most of the precipitation should be off to our northeast. High pressure then briefly returns through Tuesday, with highs expected to be near seasonal averages.

50 mile east shift on the Euro and EPS and we all rejoice... or we just take the UKIE lol

Looks like the 06z EPS took a nice step toward the GFS

We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either. We should have that already.

Morning AFD from LWX (4am update) .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will move into the region Friday, with cooler air and a gustier wind as low pressure strengthens off the coast. Highs will drop 5-10 degrees below Thursday`s readings. From then, all attention is on the potential weekend snowstorm. A great deal of uncertainty with this system remains, given the long-wave trough over the region which could support intense cyclogenesis (as depicted by the 0Z GFS). However, the trajectory of the shortwave energy will make a huge amount of difference as it dives south across the Plains later this week and then rounds the base of the trough. If it ends up too shallow, it could move off the coast before strengthening significantly, as suggested by various model runs over the last few days. If it ends up diving too deep, it could potentially end up digging well to our south and remain there, as depicted by the 0Z ECMWF and GGEM. 0Z GFS is near a golden sweet spot, but this situation will likely evolve significantly over the next few days as guidance gets a better handle on the disturbances involved. In particular, the main shortwave energy remains over the north Pacific south of the Aelutians, a fairly data sparse area, which means guidance could change significantly in any direction as better observational information on the shortwave is included. The one thing we are relatively confident in is that it will be cold. With the trough in place and a fresh high pressure building in behind the front later this week, temps likely struggle to reach freezing over the weekend, particularly Saturday.

lol the 3hr snow maps are porn at 147-153 as the deform band goes by... they are just silly

oh hello there

h5 is digging a bit more SW at 06z 90 than at 00z 84... Can def see the W shift comparing the 06z 96 and 00z 90 on the GFS with the energy out west

Taken verbatim re 06z ICON snow amounts: 2" just SW of BWI out towards HGR... 4" line is near DCA out towards MRB... 6" by EZF and Warrenton and Luray and probably just south of Winchester. Take as you wish ETA: Still snowing in a lot of areas at 120... so there would be some accumulations after 120. 06z ICON ends at 120

Just a tiny difference between the 06z ICON and the 00z ICON 06z ICON has snow moving into DCA at 111 (21z SAT). Snows for rest of the run at DCA. Sharp northern edge however (of course)... which is up by the M/D line as the run ends at 120

16 of the 50 (32%) 00z individual EPS members have 6"+ DCA through hour 192... so some EPS members are liking the weekend

Would the 06z ICON be good for us if it went out another 24 hours? I would think so... with a 1040 HP sliding eastward into Quebec and a 1039 in ND... but the SLP on the OK/TX border at 1003mb is giving me slight pause with the h5 energy/shortwave being a bit far behind -- or is that the kicker? Also, I'd think that huge ocean low would help with the HP getting blocked up in Quebec, yes?

*shudders violently* I was in HS at the time and had really gotten into weather few years prior. Wasn't on weather boards yet. I remember hearing the forecast as pazzo said. I was telling my classmates and teachers we were going to get crushed with snow and don't worry about doing your homework. Woke up, green grass and yeah. Remember trying to get out of going to school because I didn't want to deal with everyone lol

Why no?

Guess this is @EastCoast NPZ lol or nearby him At 3:10 AM EST, 2 E Stephens City [Frederick Co, VA] TRAINED SPOTTER reports SNOW of 5.30 INCH

At 3:13 AM EST, Dulles International AI [Loudoun Co, VA] OFFICIAL NWS OBS reports SNOW of 3.70 INCH

At 3:07 AM EST, 3 SSW Damascus [Montgomery Co, MD] CO-OP OBSERVER reports SNOW of 5.00 INCH At 3:12 AM EST, 3 N Chantilly [Fairfax Co, VA] NWS EMPLOYEE reports SNOW of 4.50 INCH

Hmmm... I'm around 2.5 to 3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 152 AM EST FRI JAN 07 2022 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0145 AM SNOW 1 NNE HERNDON 38.98N 77.38W 01/07/2022 M1.7 INCH FAIRFAX VA NWS EMPLOYEE

oh hai there