yoda

The coastal that will affect SE VA and NE NC during that time period

Did the King order you there?

Tuesday looked like crap on the 06z GFS

lol Day 10-11 on 06z GFS... now thats some crazy snowstorm development that misses DC... but smokes NC/Eastern Shore on up to PHL and into SNE

Thats some weird look from 132 to 144 on 06z GFS for next Tuesday ETA -- looks like part of it is due to the h5 washing out/weakening

Even had some 60s and 70s at the end of its run for DC south

The end of the 18z GFS was super lulz... banana highs... strong s/w getting ready to phase at h5 I believe at 384... and a developing SLP in E MS

that was a very boring 18z GFS run

Oddly enough became a bunch of nothing... lets see what goes on now at 204

Probably so... but WB shows 3-4 as well for total snowfall

18z GFS tries for 5" at DCA Including DC metro into BALT metro as well

20z HRRR continues to look good... still another hour or two of snowfall to come for i95 corridor and metros at the end of the run... 2-3" across most of N VA into DC metro into C MD

Also... both the 12z WRF-ARW and WRF-ARW2 suggest 3-4 for DC/BALT metro regions and i95 corridor

Good luck SE VA! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 301 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ084-086>090-092-093-095>100-523>525- 200415- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0003.220121T0600Z-220122T1500Z/ Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Gloucester-Mathews- Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Isle of Wight- Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach-Accomack- York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson- Including the cities of Margarettsville, Ahoskie, Corapeake, Elizabeth City, Horseshoe, Lilly, Sharon, Knotts Island, Quitsna, Edenhouse, Merry Hill, Midway, Windsor, Cape Colony, Edenton, Hancock, Macedonia, Mavaton, Saint Johns, Valhalla, Jacocks, Woodville, Corolla, Achilles, Glass, Gloucester Point, Maryus, Naxera, Ordinary, Severn, Bavon, New Point, New Point Comfort, Peary, Emporia, Wakefield, Barham, Gwaltney Corner, Bacons Castle, Chippokes State Park, Hog Island Game Reserve, Poolesville, Booth Fork, Williamsburg, Franklin, Carrsville, Lees Mill, Benns Church, Bethel Church, Carrollton, Lawson, Longview, Downtown Norfolk, Ghent, Norfolk International Arpt, Norfolk NAS, Norview, Ocean View, Wards Corner, Chuckatuck, Cleopus, Crittenden, Deanes, Downtown Suffolk, Driver, Elwood, Mount Pleasant, Bowers Hill, Chesapeake Airport, Deep Creek, Fentress, Great Bridge, Greenbrier, Back Bay, Bayside, Cape Henry, Dam Neck, Gallups Corner, Kempsville, London Bridge, Chincoteague, Wallops Island, Melfa, Exmore, Cape Charles, Cheapside, Fishermans Island, Kiptopeke, Kiptopeke State Park, Plantation, Grafton, Tabb, Beaconsdale, Denbigh, Fort Eustis, Hilton Village, Lee Hall, Menchville, Newport News, Buckroe Beach, Fort Monroe, Fox Hill, Grand View, Hallwood, Hampton, and Langley AFB 301 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of eastern and southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Thursday night through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

RAH is holding URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Raleigh NC 313 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>077-083-200930- /O.CON.KRAH.WS.A.0002.220121T0000Z-220122T1200Z/ Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance- Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham- Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson- Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Roanoke Rapids, Enfield, Scotland Neck, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, Rougemont, Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Tarboro, Princeville, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Archdale, Siler City, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Wake Forest, Knightdale, Smithfield, Selma, Clayton, Wilson, Albemarle, Troy, Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage, Sanford, Lillington, Angier, Buies Creek, Erwin, Dunn, Wadesboro, and Polkton 313 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. In addition, ice accumulations of a light glaze possible. * WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina. * WHEN...From Thursday evening through Saturday morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

18z NAM shifted SE a smidge with its heaviest totals

FWIW, 18z RAP is pretty nice too lol... region wide 2-4" and still snowing at 15z for parts of the region

Maybe so... but that ridge out west is out in the Eastern Pacific Ocean which is causing a trough out west, which usually isn't good news for us

Developing into a cutter in KS

Then the EURO just lets us have bitter cold and dry the rest of the run Tries for below zero lows Day 9 night

But check h5. Its a strong s/w in the South at 138-144... then it washes out as it goes along

lol 12z EURO completely fell apart 144-168

Cold rain at 156 and 162... boom indeed