yoda

06z ICON would be a nightmare for DC... starts out in low/mid 20s for snow around 21z. Stays below freezing until around 04z or so. Quick spike to mid 30s or so for a few hours of light rain... then back to below freezing by 07z/08z. Precip is still around till just after 12z, so would precip would change back to either light snow or light freezing rain on top of what has melted. 32 degree line briefly gets to around BR for about 3 hours max... then rushes back eastward. BR and west would stay all frozen... BR to I95 would be a mess of snow to ice to light rain then back to some light ice/snow as the system occludes/pulls away

LWX morning AFD .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A dry night with some clearing as high pressure builds a bit more strongly to the south Saturday night will help allow temps to drop into the single digits in the cold spots and the teens for most everyone else, with many locales likely to see their coldest night for nearly 3 years. Rapidly moving and strengthening low pressure then becomes the main focus. The system will be moving at a fairly good clip, but the intense forcing as the warm advection is forced quickly over the departing cold air mass will mean business. The track of the low will ultimately be key as far as how far west the mixing and rain gets, and there remains some model uncertainty between the various suites, but are confident enough that our western half will see warning level snow such that, after collaboration with neighbors and WPC, it was decided to issue winter storm watches. This does not rule out winter storm warning criteria conditions further east, but confidence just isn't there especially given the long lead. However, at this time the most likely scenario is a heavy burst of snow on the front end for most as the storm moves into the region Sunday afternoon, following by a mix to ice during the evening and plain rain possibly for areas near and east of I-95. At this time icing is not expected to reach our far western zones, where the heaviest snow of a foot or more is possible. Where the snow and ice do change to rain, heavy rain will possibly result in minor flooding. Winds may also be quite gusty in those locations east of the low as it passes, and for all areas right after the low passes, with gusts possibly approaching 50 mph. Will be watching forecast trends for potential wind advisories. It must be noted that even areas which don't see warning level snow have the potential for a brief burst of very heavy snow before the changeover occurs, with rates possibly approaching those seen on January 3rd south of DC for a time. This could make travel very difficult during that time, most likely occurring late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The low looks likely to move fast enough such that heavier precip is moving out by late Sunday night, but some wraparound rain/snow is possible. Additional accumulations on the back side look minor, however. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A powerful low pressure system over southeast Pennsylvania will move quickly northeastward across New England Monday and then into the eastern Canadian Maritimes Monday night. Residual snow showers will be expected across our mountains in the west and along the Mason- Dixon region to as far south as northern suburbs of Washington D.C. Strong northwest winds will become westerly during the day as well before the low departs. Light additional snow accumulations possible Monday. Colder temperatures will set up shop as well. There remains the possibility that additional headlines may be needed for upslope snow showers on the back side of the departing low.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 MDZ003-004-VAZ031-036>040-050-051-501-505-WVZ052-053-142345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Clarke-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison- Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Berkeley-Jefferson- 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of around two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, central, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hours late Sunday into Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 MDZ001-501-502-VAZ025>030-503-504-507-508-WVZ050-051-055-501>506- 142345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0003.220116T1800Z-220117T1200Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hampshire-Morgan-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 333 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. * WHERE...Portions of western Maryland, central, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at 1 to 3 inches per hours late Sunday into Sunday evening, resulting in nearly impassable roads.

Yeah yeah... but 06z NAM is lights out for the I95 to I81 corridor... bad ice storm including EZF and DCA and IAD and BWI... into most of C VA into N VA and a majority of MD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Springfield MO 214 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY... .A storm system will approach the region from the north, causing rain to change over to snow during the Saturday morning hours. Minor snow accumulations ranging from a dusting to four inches are possible. KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150300- /O.NEW.KSGF.WW.Y.0003.220115T0900Z-220116T0300Z/ Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 214 AM CST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between a dusting and 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas. portions of central, east central, south central, southwest, and west central Missouri. The highest amounts are expected to occur over central Missouri. * WHEN...From 3 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions, particularly if wet or slushy roads tend to freeze Saturday evening as temperatures drop well below freezing.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Raleigh NC 307 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 NCZ007-008-021>024-038-039-141700- /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/ Person-Granville-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Davidson- Randolph- Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor, Winston-Salem, Greensboro, High Point, Burlington, Graham, Mebane, Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, and Archdale 307 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will initially begin as snow before changing to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Raleigh NC 307 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 NCZ009-010-025-026-040-041-073>077-083>086-088-141700- /O.NEW.KRAH.WS.A.0001.220116T0500Z-220117T0500Z/ Vance-Warren-Durham-Franklin-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore- Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland- Including the cities of Henderson, Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Durham, Rougemont, Louisburg, Franklinton, Siler City, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Apex, Wake Forest, Knightdale, Albemarle, Troy, Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage, Sanford, Lillington, Angier, Buies Creek, Erwin, Dunn, Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Ellerbe, Laurinburg, Camp Mackall, Wagram, Raeford, Fayetteville, Spring Lake, and Hope Mills 307 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of up to three tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday evening. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is forecast, although locations southeast of US 1 will likely change over to rain Sunday afternoon.

PW snow map has 4" at DCA... fine with me. 6" line is just east of the BR

Looks like 2-4... maybe 3-5 DC metro and westward

GFS/UKIE combo would be nice here... 3-5"

6" line is basically i66 south... then curves toward i95 corridor but probably 20 miles west Once you get out towards NW VA (Clarke and Frederick counties) 6 to 10 out there

Pretty much isothermal but look at that DGZ zone... tasty

Dumping snow at 72 in DC metro

I'll take my 4 to 6 on there lol

00z ICON has a bit more wintry precipitation for i95 corridor compared to 18z

2 to 3 for DCA on 00z RGEM

True, but what was nice was there was a SE shift with the low a bit... and no rain for DC compared to 18z

Snow to sleet to ice to dry slot for DC this run. No rain

998 over ILM at 69.... snow on DC doorstep

Lol 00z NAM has SLP south of FL panhandle at 51

Seems like 00z NAM is going to be a bit faster again... do we want a faster system or no?