yoda

Hmmm... LWX AFD from this afternoon: The pattern for Saturday remains uncertain at this time as it will be heavily dependent on a coastal low off the Carolina coast. Models have differing solution with the GFS keeping a strong high pressure / upper ridge over the NE US which prevents the coastal low from moving northward toward our region. On the other hand, the Euro is weaker with the high and allows the low to bring areas of 1 to 2 inches of precipitation to parts of our region. General trends have pushed precipitation to the late Saturday and into Sunday period with areas around and below DC experiencing the heaviest precipitation. The threat for flooding has increased especially if the coastal low shifts closer to the coast with flooding most likely to occur if the heaviest rain occurs over our metro areas. There is the possibility that our region remains mostly dry this weekend especially if the GFS solution comes true. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler in the 70s with overnight lows in upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Come Sunday, guidance continues to diverge on how it handles an upper level trough across the Eastern Seaboard. Guidance varies in developing an upper level low and a coastal low along a surface trough. The potential surface low is being monitored by the NHC for potential tropical development off the SE US coast (see nhc.noaa.gov for the latest). Regardless if this system officially becomes named a tropical system, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible Sunday mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Impacts are highly dependent on the track of the surface low, and considerable uncertainty remains. Regardless, if the low moves nearby, it should be out of the area by Sunday night with dry weather returning early next week as upper level ridging builds across the region.

DCA: 11/20 IAD: 10/26 BWI: 11/05 RIC: 11/17 TB: 2.04"

Saints next week... oh boy Then KC, GB, Denver, and then Tampa after bye week first week of November... good luck defense

A win is a win... I love some Heinicke... but geez our defense sucks

lolololololololol

This is what I think about the WFT

Did you try a heating pad?

Lol this team is garbage ETA: yeah that was pure luck for a TD

Nah, I'm thinking of becoming a Jets fan... or maybe a Lions fan

Even the 00z Euro suggests a +10 to +15 surface temp anomaly at Day 10... yuck

06z GFS was atrocious past Day 10

LWX has 60 to 70 POPS each day... plus from LWX AFD .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main story in the extended will be potential for heavy rainfall sometime mid to late week. The latest 12Z deterministic guidance tends to support earlier 00/06Z ensemble trends of above normal moisture/precipitable water across the Mid-Atlantic. On Tuesday...a stalled frontal boundary across central Virginia into the Delmarva will keep a moist easterly flow into the area. Periods of rain especially east of the Blue Ridge are expected Tuesday into Wednesday. As upper low pressure drifts over the lower/middle Mississippi Valley Wednesday and Thursday, moisture continue to stream over the region...as surface high pressure over New England causes decent lower level moisture confluence into our region. This could lead to decent rainfall amounts.

Monday to Friday of next week looks terrible... rainy all week

Maryland being shown the door by Iowa tonight so far lol

Thank you

Thank you!

Thank you

Thanks

Thank you @mappy

With showers too

Saw this on FB and yeah... @WxWatcher007

Tropical Storm Victor Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 Victor is gradually getting better organized. AMSR2 microwave data from 0300 UTC showed that the low-level circulation has become more defined, with most convective banding features located west and southwest of the center. Victor's intensity is now estimated to be 40 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 and T2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMSS around 40 kt. Victor's vector is toward the west-northwest (290 degrees) at 11 kt, and this heading should continue for the next 36 hours while the storm is located to the south a deep-layer ridge located over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic. In about 2 days, a mid- to upper-level low is forecast to develop over the central Atlantic, causing Victor to curve around the western periphery of the ridge, which gets shunted eastward between the Azores and the Canary Islands. The track models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, and most of them are clustered tightly among each other. Two notable exceptions, which are discounted at this time, are the HWRF and ECMWF models. The HWRF, which is stronger than the other models, is way off to the east, while the ECMWF lies off to the south and west, a tendency that we've observed recently with other storms in the deep tropics. The NHC track forecast is not changed much from the previous iteration and lies close to the GFS, HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and TVCA solutions. If the low-level circulation is in fact becoming better defined as shown by microwave imagery, Victor should be able to continue strengthening for the next couple of days in an environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters of roughly 28 degrees Celsius. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance during this period and continues to show Victor reaching hurricane strength in about 36 hours. Once the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low forms, strong southerly to southwesterly deep-layer shear is expected to develop over Victor and induce a weakening trend in about 3 days. The intensity forecast has been lowered a bit during the latter part of the forecast period given the trends in the intensity models, but it is not as low as the HCCA and IVCN aids. Interestingly, many of the global models suggest that the shear could be so strong that Victor might weaken to a depression or even degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 8.7N 27.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 9.4N 28.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 10.2N 30.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 11.2N 32.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 12.6N 33.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 14.4N 35.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 16.6N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 22.0N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 27.3N 41.9W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 800 AM CVT Thu Sep 30 2021 ...VICTOR A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.7N 27.3W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 8.7 North, longitude 27.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical Atlantic is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Victor could become a hurricane on Friday. A weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 Sam is a very impressive hurricane in infrared satellite imagery this morning. The 25-nm-wide eye remains very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of convection with cloud tops around -65C. The outflow is also well established in all quadrants. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that performed three eyewall penetrations overnight has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 139 kt in the northeastern, southeastern, and eastern eyewall, and peak SFMR surface winds of 119 kt. These data still support an initial wind speed of 125 kt. Sam's minimum pressure has fallen a few millibars since the NOAA aircraft mission last evening. The latest estimated pressure from dropsonde data gathered by the Air Force is 937 mb. NOAA buoy 41044 has recently reported a peak one-minute wind of 68 kt with a gust to 86 kt in the northeastern eyewall of Sam. The buoy has also reported peak seas of 40 ft. Sam could still strengthen a little today as it continues to move over a warm ocean eddy and remains in low vertical wind shear conditions. After that time, difficult-to-predict eyewall cycles however, could cause some fluctuations in intensity. After 48 hours, gradually decreasing SSTs and ocean heat content are likely to cause a more definitive weakening trend, with a faster rate of weakening likely after day 3. Sam is forecast to complete its extratropical transition by day 5, and it is predicted by the global model guidance to become a large and powerful extratropical low over the north Atlantic. Sam is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. The track forecast reasoning is again unchanged from the previous advisory. Sam will move northwestward, and then northward around the western portion of a subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. After that time, Sam is predicted to turn northeastward between the ridge and a large mid-latitude trough over the northeastern United States. As that trough lifts northeastward by day 3, Sam is forecast to continue on a northeastward heading, but it is not likely to accelerate as much as a typical recurving tropical cyclone over the north-central Atlantic. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent agreement through 72 hours, but there is increasing spread after that time. The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models have come into somewhat better agreement at days 3 through 5, and the NHC track forecast is near the consensus of those typically reliable models. Although the core of Sam is forecast to pass east of Bermuda early Saturday, the tropical-storm-force wind field is forecast to expand and could pass very close to the island beginning late Friday night or early Saturday. Therefore, the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for that island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 21.5N 59.1W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 23.0N 60.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.6N 61.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 28.4N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 31.1N 61.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 33.5N 59.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 35.5N 58.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 38.7N 52.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 44.3N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown

BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Thu Sep 30 2021 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE SAM CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 59.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 825 MI...1325 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 59.1 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north is anticipated by late Friday, and a northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Sam will continue to pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands this morning, and pass to the east of Bermuda early Saturday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next couple of days, but Sam is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, with more significant weakening anticipated later in the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). NOAA buoy 41044 has recently measured a peak one-minute sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust to 98 mph (158 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the Northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next few days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas by Friday, and then spread to the United States east coast by this weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.