yoda

Yes please h/t @ORH_wxman

Bolded sounds tasty and fun URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 233 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 DCZ001-MDZ005-006-008-011-013-014-016-018-503>508-VAZ052>054-502- 506-060345- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.220107T0200Z-220107T1000Z/ District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil- Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-Calvert- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier- Eastern Loudoun- 233 PM EST Wed Jan 5 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Total snow accumulations 2 to 4 inches. Isolated high amounts of around 5 inches are possible. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of northern and central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 9 PM Thursday to 5 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow is expected between 10 PM and 2 AM when snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour are possible.

Not official till I C and P all warnings and advisories in this thread lol

I know its unlikely, but would LWX go WSWatch for even for 3-5" considering the recent heavy snowfall in the SE zones (aka I95 corridor into EZF/S MD)? Even if LSR's are 12:1? 0.3" QPF (let's just say for DCA) would suggest near 4" (which is below the 5" WSWatch criteria)... but with powdery snow on top of wet cement snow/ice... wouldn't that create more hazards? Just a thought. I figure LWX takes that into account clearly... but wondering what others thought

I think 06z EURO was near 0.3" near DCA?

Sorry @mappy

Lol NBM is National Blend of Models... so I assume that this would be an excellent resource

12z NBM increases an inch or so over 06z run for most of the CWA

@ravensrule

12z WRF-ARW2 has some definite banding as the snow arrives

12z 3k NAM is 2 to 4 for most looking at Kuchera

Looks like 12z NAM is moving the s/w over New England north a bit, rising heights a tad through 26 Can see a slightly south movement of the QPF field and SLP placement comparing 12z 30 to 06z 24

Talking about SRs... wasn't there a website that showed that? Or forecasted? I remember seeing it before

Only if you accept being in a drought zone forever lol

43 of the 50 06z EPS individual members give KOKV 2"+

Per the latest zones... DCA is forecasted to reach highs around 30 on Tuesday. That would be the first time in a while of a subfreezing high at DCA, yes?

Re 6z EPS About 35 of the 50 individual members give DCA 2"+... around 13 or so give DCA warning criteria (around 5" or so)

Sorry had to clear space for the attachment... added now

6z EPS was a good increase for all

Super LR 06z GFS - about Day 12 on - sends us to the freezer... highs in the 20s for the rest of the run with lows single digits for most with some teens in metros... looks like some below zero nights Day 14 to Day 16 in the region as well

06z GFS says most of us are below freezing for highs on Monday... may stay in the 10s in the mountains and mid 20s for most on Tuesday

Looks like 2-4 sounds like a good bet for most ETA: after looking at the 06z NAMs/GFS/RGEM/ICON

Good morning AFD from LWX SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Chillier air will filter in behind a cold front Thursday as weak surface high pressure builds overhead. However, the next system will be fast on its heels. A potent jetmax and shortwave in the northern stream of the jet will will dig southeast through the central CONUS and Midwest Thursday. This will carve out an upper-level trough over the Midwest by the end of the day. Surface low pressure will develop well to our south over the southeastern CONUS by the end of the day as well. The shortwave and jetmax will pass through our area Thursday night while the surface low strengthens and tracks northeast through North Carolina Thursday evening and off the North Carolina coast Thursday night. This signal appears to be like a Miller B type low. The track of the shortwave will be far enough to the south to put our area in the favorable region of the mid and upper-level jet for precipitation to develop. Also, there may be added lift from the coastal low, or at least some low-level frontogenetical forcing around 850mb (which can be seen in some of the guidance). There should be enough cold and dry air for the main precipitation type to be snow, and snow is likely to accumulate for most of the CWA. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the Potomac Highlands, central Shenandoah Valley, and the Blue Ridge Mountains. As of now, it appears that the best lift associated with this system will set up over these areas, and that will also combine with higher SLR`s (especially over the higher elevations) to enhance snowfall totals. There was consideration for issuing a watch farther northeast toward central VA/southern MD and the Washington DC metro areas. However, lower SLR`s combined with the fact that this is a fast moving system kept confidence below 50 percent for warning criteria to be met. This will be re-assessed later today. However, 2 to 4 inches are most likely across these areas, and that will impact travel, especially overnight Thursday. Farther north across northern MD, eastern WV, and northern VA, accumulating snow is likely across these areas. However, with the better synoptic lift most likely setting up to the south, that kept confidence too low for a watch in those areas at this time. This system will move out of the area by Friday morning, with just some upslope snow showers possible along/west of the Allegheny Front. However, with temperatures below freezing there will be issues with snow covered surfaces that are untreated. Canadian high pressure will approach, and the gradient between the high and the departing low will cause blustery and cold conditions. The high will build overhead Friday night, and winds will diminish but it will be cold.