yoda

So you have chosen... suppression

This upcoming Thursday morning looks very nice on the 06z GFS... widespread upper 40s to low 50s

Ugh, pouring rain again I wish this was winter

Huge outflow boundary extending from Montgomery County in MD to near Fauquier County in VA on Radarscope

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Flash Flood Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 PM EDT Thu Sep 16 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... Southwestern District of Columbia... Arlington County in northern Virginia... East Central Fairfax County in northern Virginia... The City of Alexandria in northern Virginia... The City of Falls Church in northern Virginia... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing flash flooding. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Arlington... Alexandria... Annandale... Springfield... Falls Church... Rosslyn... Crystal City... Reagan National Airport... Lincolnia... Lake Barcroft... Ballston... Seven Corners... Barcroft... Baileys Crossroads... Westover... Cherrydale... Rock Creek... Bolling Air Force...

Almost looks like the storms merger into a hook near Springfield lol

00z EURO says maybe some real fall weather by Day 10... below 0C 850s in the N Plains as a nice trough comes in 06z GFS says lulz nice try for any real fall weather till the very end of the run

Trying to. Been on hold with the IRS for the past hour. I paid my taxes late (it was like $200 -- I hadn't gotten one of my stimulus payments when I did my taxes way back in February when you could first start doing them, and I got a refund of like 300 dollars... 2 months later and the IRS was like nope, nice try, here's what you really owe -- I had finally gotten my last stimulus check by then.) Anyway, I forgot to pay... so I did last month online and took screenshots and all. Got a letter today saying I hadn't paid yet and I owed money still. I am like hol' up no sir... so waiting with all my info to talk to an actual person.

@weatherwiz You chasing today? 5% tor up

0z EPS was yucky. 594 DM heights over the region days 7-10

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 945 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain anchored offshore through much of the week. A backdoor cold front will approach from Pennsylvania tonight, then retreat northward as a warm front Tuesday. Low pressure may develop near the Carolina coast Thursday into Friday as a weakening cold front approaches from the Great Lakes. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Moderately to heavy dense smoke aloft will obscure skies today per latest HRRR vertically integrated smoke output. This will continue to impact sfc temperatures today and have undercut guidance for high temperatures today. Used the 10th percentile from the NBM. A strong elevated mixed layer with 700 mb temps near 13C was seen on the 13/12Z and 13/00Z IAD upper air launches, as well as on the 0555Z NUCAPS pass just offshore. Nearly 9 C/km in the elevated mixed layer is not a very common observation over the eastern U.S. However, the warmer low-levels will inhibit surface-based convection with 107 degrees temperatures necessary to achieve this.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Radar data from Brownsville shows that the center of Nicholas is on the southwestern side of a large area of deep convection over the western Gulf of Mexico. While southwesterly shear continues to affect the storm, the radar presentation has recently improved, with what could be the start of a partial eyewall forming in the northern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on earlier aircraft flight-level winds of 59 kt, believable SFMR values up to 50 kt, along with radar winds at 5000 ft near 60 kt. The storm is moving north-northwestward at about 12 kt. Nicholas is forecast to turn northward soon into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The track prediction is only nudged slightly westward from the previous one through landfall, consistent with recent model guidance. Thereafter, there isn't good agreement among the models on how quickly the tropical cyclone will move northeastward out of Texas. Generally the models are faster this cycle, which seems believable given the large northward re-formation earlier likely exposing Nicholas to stronger mid-latitude flow. Thus the new NHC forecast is trended faster as well, but remains behind the model consensus. Obviously the forward speed is important to the heavy rainfall forecast, and this trend will be one to watch. Nicholas should continue to strengthen up until landfall due primarily to the very warm Gulf waters and the recent inner-core improvements. Moderate southwesterly shear and some dry air are the main inhibiting factors and will hopefully keep the strengthening in check. However, it is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane before landfall, and that's the reason for the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should weaken after landfall, diminish into a tropical depression within a couple of days, and degenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC wind speed prediction. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm today, and could be near hurricane intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning by this afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport this afternoon and tonight. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 27.3N 96.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 29.2N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z 30.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0600Z 31.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1800Z 32.1N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 32.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 ...NICHOLAS FORECAST TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND GUSTY WINDS LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 96.6W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Freeport Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Aransas Texas * San Luis Pass Texas to Rutherford Beach Louisiana, including Galveston Bay * Baffin Bay and Corpus Christi Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of High Island Texas to Sabine Pass

Still 60mph and 1001mb at 5am

Lol Fitz to undergo an MRI for his hip... watch him be out for Luke 6 to 8 weeks... Cam Watch in effect

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Visible satellite imagery, scatterometer wind data, and earlier reconnaissance aircraft observations indicate that the circulation of Nicholas is elongated from northwest to southeast. In fact, visible satellite imagery and the aircraft data has shown that there have been several low-level swirls rotating about a mean center. This is not surprising since the tropical cyclone is still in its formative stage. The Air Force plane did not find winds any stronger than they did this morning and the ASCAT data revealed peaks winds of around 30 kt. Given the typical undersampling of the scatterometer instrument, the earlier aircraft data, and peak one-minute wind observations of 31 kt from NOAA buoy 42055 earlier today, the intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. Nicholas will be moving over the warm waters of the western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, and this combined with a moist, unstable atmosphere favors strengthening. The primarily inhibiting factor appears to be moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear caused by an upper-level trough over northern Mexico. The trough is forecast to move westward and weaken during the next day or so, which could allow for a more favorable upper-level wind pattern later tonight and Monday. The NHC intensity forecast again calls for strengthening while the system moves toward the northwest Gulf coast, but the main uncertainty regarding the intensity forecast is how much time the cyclone will spend over the Gulf waters. The GFS and HWRF models, which depict a track farther east, show significantly more strengthening than the UKMET and ECMWF models which show a weaker tropical cyclone moving inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas much sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, but indicates a faster rate of strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Although not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, Nicholas could approach hurricane strength when it nears the northwest Gulf coast, especially if it moves to the right of the NHC forecast track and spends more time over water. Due to this uncertainty a Hurricane Watch has been issued a for a portion of the Texas coast. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS and HFIP corrected consensus model, but is not as high as the latest HWRF. The center of Nicholas appears to have re-formed farther north since this morning and the initial motion estimate is again a somewhat uncertain 340/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning has not changed from this morning. Nicholas should move north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is located near the southeast U.S. coast. The latest runs of the various dynamical models have shown typical variability, but the overall guidance envelope has not changed too much through the first 36 hours. The GFS has been the most consistent model and its 12Z run was fairly close to the previous NHC track forecast. Therefore, the NHC track leans along the right side of the guidance envelope between the HWRF and GFS, which are a little to the right of the consensus aids. Due to the acute angle of approach of Nicholas to the coast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track as small changes in the heading of the cyclone could result in differences in both the location and timing of landfall. Regardless of where Nicholas makes landfall, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts are likely over a large portion of northeastern Mexico and Texas coastal areas. After landfall, a slower north-northeastward motion is forecast, and by 72 hours the cyclone is forecast to be located between a couple of mid-level ridges, which will likely result in weaker steering currents and an even slower northeastward motion. By day 5, the global model guidance suggest that the low-level circulation will become an open trough so dissipation is indicated at that time. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Sargent late Monday and Monday night. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning Monday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 22.8N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 24.4N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.7N 96.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/1800Z 30.4N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/0600Z 31.2N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/1800Z 31.7N 95.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1800Z 31.9N 94.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended eastward to Freeport, Texas. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass, including Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sargent. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas * Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Port Aransas to Sargent Texas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to Freeport Texas * Barra el Mezquital to the U.S./Mexico border A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Port Aransas to High Island Texas

Ugh... looks like warm and humid temps for the next 7-10 days... 85-90 and DPs in the 60s are just ugly in mid September

That fumble right after the interception sealed it... and giving up the 1st down on 3rd and 16... i mean, they had their chances.

And Fitz is injured... yay

Your outlook should be interesting then

Ah yes, the usual start to the season