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Tropical Depression Twenty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 The area of low pressure located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic that NHC has been monitoring has now become a tropical depression, the twentieth tropical cyclone of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. Satellite images indicate that the system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that have become fairly well organized around the center. An ASCAT-A pass from a few hours ago indicated that the system now has a well-defined circulation and that the radius of maximum wind is 30-40 n mi north of the center. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and the T2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The minimum pressure of 1007 mb is partially based on data from a ship report that passed near the depression. Based on satellite fixes, the depression appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. The system is currently located on the south side of a deep-layer ridge, and that feature should keep the cyclone on a west-northwest track during the next couple of days. After that time, the models show a mid- to upper-level low developing over the central tropical Atlantic, which erodes the western portion of the ridge. This change in the steering flow should cause the system to turn northwestward on Friday and then northward toward the end of the forecast period. Although the models generally agree on the evolution of the large-scale pattern, there are notable differences in the details, which leads to a fair amount of spread concerning when and where the turn to the north occurs. The GFS is farthest east while the ECMWF shows the westernmost solution. The NHC track forecast lies between those models and is near the TVCA multi-model consensus. The depression is expected to remain in conducive environmental conditions for strengthening during the next 2 or 3 days. During that time period, the storm is forecast to move over 28-29 deg C waters while embedded within an airmass of high mid-level moisture and very low wind shear (less than 10 kt). Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely, and the NHC forecast brings the system to a tropical storm by tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond a few days, however, the models show a pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and a notably drier atmosphere. These unfavorable conditions should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a near a blend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 8.3N 24.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 8.8N 25.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 9.5N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 10.3N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 11.2N 31.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 12.4N 33.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 14.0N 35.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.4N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 24.3N 40.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 29 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...8.3N 24.6W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 8.3 North, longitude 24.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Very intense and distinct hail cores on radar as well

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 549 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAC047-137-282215- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0532.000000T0000Z-210928T2215Z/ Orange VA-Culpeper VA- 549 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR NORTHEASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER COUNTIES... At 549 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast of Culpeper, moving southeast at 15 mph. HAZARD...Two inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Gold Dale, Raccoon Ford, Mine Run, Lake Of The Woods, Burr Hill, Locust Grove and Flat Run. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3837 7809 3838 7798 3840 7787 3838 7768 3824 7782 TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 301DEG 15KT 3832 7791 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 548 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAC003-079-137-282215- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0531.000000T0000Z-210928T2215Z/ Orange VA-Albemarle VA-Greene VA- 548 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE...NORTHEASTERN ALBEMARLE AND SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTIES... At 547 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm with a history of producing large hail covering the ground was located near Free Union, or 11 miles north of Charlottesville, moving southeast at 20 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Hail accumulating on roadways may result in very slippery travel conditions. Locations impacted include... Hollymead, Ruckersville, Boonesville, Eheart, Barboursville, Stony Point, Advance Mills, Saint George, Earlysville, Amicus and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3825 7863 3827 7855 3820 7822 3809 7835 3815 7851 TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 293DEG 16KT 3820 7846 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

Doesn't usually happen around here Short Term Forecast National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 529 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAZ038-039-050-282200- Greene-Madison-Orange- 529 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 .NOW... At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Stanardsville, or 7 miles southwest of Madison, moving southeast at 15 mph. Gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph and small hail are possible with this storm. These storms have a history of producing hail that covers the ground. Be alert for slippery travel conditions. Locations impacted include... Orange, Stanardsville, Montpelier Station, Madison Run, Pratts, Rochelle, Newtown, Aroda, Madison Mills, Montford, Old Somerset, Shelby, Dawsonville, Twymans Mill, Wolftown, Somerset, Hood, Locust Dale, Burtonville and Rapidan.

Hmmm... related?

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 VAC079-165-282130- /O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0530.000000T0000Z-210928T2130Z/ Rockingham VA-Greene VA- 451 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROCKINGHAM AND GREENE COUNTIES... At 451 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Massanutten, or 11 miles southeast of Harrisonburg, moving southeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible. Locations impacted include... Massanutten, Stanardsville, Elkton, Ruckersville, Mcmullen, Rocky Bar, Quinque, Lydia, Haneytown, Mission Home, Swift Run, Amicus, Mcgaheysville, Saint George and Shady Grove. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 3825 7859 3827 7865 3827 7866 3837 7876 3844 7872 3837 7843 3832 7838 3832 7837 3831 7836 3820 7841 TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 297DEG 21KT 3837 7868 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 Sam's weakening trend ended earlier today, with the intensity likely bottoming out between the issuance of the previous advisory and now. Over the past few hours, microwave data and satellite imagery indicate that the inner core and eyewall of the hurricane are making a comeback. There is now a clear eye in visible imagery, convective cloud tops colder than -65 degrees C wrap completely around the center, and the convective mass is becoming more circular once again. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Sam indicates the central pressure has dropped to 957 mb, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 106 kt, SFMR values of 100 kt, and dropsonde surface winds of 102 kt. Given possible minor undersampling and the recent dropping of the hurricane's pressure, the initial advisory intensity is set at 105 kt. Sam continues to move northwest, or 315/8 kt. The hurricane is expected to continue this northwestward motion around a subtropical ridge over the next few days. By late Thursday or early Friday a turn toward the north is anticipated as Sam rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The cyclone should begin to gradually accelerate during that time in the increasing flow ahead of a mid- to upper-level trough emerging off the U.S. east coast later this week. Model guidance remains in very good agreement on this scenario and the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one, and lies near tightly clustered consensus track guidance. The southwesterly winds that brought in some dry air and disrupted Sam's impressive satellite appearance last night appear to have abated. As long as environmental winds surrounding the hurricane remain light, then the dry air surrounding the cyclone should not have as much of an impact on the hurricane's strength over the next few days. Based on the improving inner-core structure appearance of Sam, re-strengthening is forecast over the next 12 h. Thereafter, mainly minor fluctuations in intensity are indicated through 72 h. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind shear and decreasing sea-surface temperatures should cause Sam to weaken. The latest NHC intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward through 36 h and is on the high end of the guidance. Thereafter, no changes were made, and that portion of the forecast is close to the various multimodel consensus solutions. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.3N 52.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.0N 53.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 17.8N 54.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 18.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 19.8N 57.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 21.2N 59.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 22.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 27.8N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 02/1800Z 34.7N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...SAM BEGINNING TO REGROUP AFTER WEAKENING... ...SOME REINTENSIFICATION EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 52.7W ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 52.7 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. A turn to the north is expected by Friday. On the forecast track, Sam will pass well to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Wednesday and Thursday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that the maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected through tonight. Thereafter, fluctuations in intensity are possible through Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure measured by the aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).

LWX seems a bit interested in tomorrow's severe risk with its afternoon AFD As the shortwave pulls out by early afternoon, a cold front associated with a deep upper level trough will start to migrate through the area. With peak daytime heating in place, this disturbance may become a bit more organized in nature. MUCAPE values continue to look fairly strong with 2000+ j/kg possible east of I-81 during the afternoon and evening hours. Bulk shear values continue to moderately impress with 30 to 35 knots. Guidance continues to favor the strongest storms along and east of I-95 by the evening hours. Some strong to severe storms are possible east of I-81 but especially along and east of the I-95 corridor. Main threats for these storms will be for damaging winds and large hail. Peak strength looks to be anywhere from 6 to 10 pm before peak heating diminishes. With a lack of strong upper level forcing, coverage looks to remain scattered in nature but will continue to monitor the latest guidance.

No one has done the tiebreaker lol ETA: @nw baltimore wx just did

Still MRGL at 1730z... interesting

Wouldn't be surprised to see SLGT risk appear on 1730z OTLK from SPC

I know it was only one pass... but 943mb to 966mb in 12 hours... wow Dry air really did a number on Sam until recently

12z NAM at KDCA for both 18z and 21z TUES shows quite a large amount of SARS loose matches for severe hail... and even supercells

Looking at the 12z NAM soundings... I'd think 2500 SBCAPE with LI in the -7 to -9 range is a bit overdone... but hmmm ConvT is in the low 80s... should breach that in the afternoon

AFD was discussing 1000 CAPE with potential of over 2000

MRGL for Tuesday... 0/5/5

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 The satellite presentation of Sam deteriorated overnight, as GOES-16 infrared imagery showed periodic disruptions to Sam's inner core convection. The eye has not been readily apparent in conventional satellite imagery for much of the night, although very recent imagery suggests an eye could be re-emerging. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft last night indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) was underway, and some dry mid-level air impinging on the western side of the circulation could also be negatively impacting Sam. No recent high-resolution microwave data is available, but an earlier scatterometer pass revealed that the tropical-storm-force wind radii had expanded just a bit in the eastern semicircle of the hurricane. The initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt for this advisory based on a blend of the objective and subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam later this morning, which will provide crucial data to assess changes in Sam's structure and intensity. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/7 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam will remain the primary steering mechanism over the next several days, and Sam is expected to maintain a northwestward heading through midweek. Then, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to dig southward over the western Atlantic late this week. The deep-layer southerly flow ahead of this feature should cause Sam to move faster toward the north-northwest by 96 h, followed by a northward acceleration thereafter. The NHC forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous one through the first 48-60 h of the forecast period, which accounts for the more northwestward initial motion observed during the past 12 h. Otherwise, the NHC track is virtually unchanged as the guidance has remained fairly consistent. Sam's intensity has likely peaked now that an ERC has commenced, but environmental conditions should allow Sam to persist as a major hurricane for the next several days. Sea-surface temperatures are expected to be 28 deg C or greater along Sam's track through 120 h, and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain weak (< 10 kt) through at least midweek. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening during the next several days, generally following the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Given the lower initial intensity of Sam, the latest NHC forecast is once again lower than the previous one. By 120 h, southerly shear associated with the deep-layer trough is forecast to increase over Sam, which should induce more weakening by this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 15.2N 51.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.9N 52.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 16.8N 53.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 17.7N 54.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 18.6N 55.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 19.6N 57.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 58.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 24.9N 61.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 30.5N 62.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 27 2021 ...SAM EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT TO INVESTIGATE SAM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 51.4W ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 51.4 West. Sam is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next several days, with an increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast through midweek, although Sam should remain a major hurricane. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Sam will reach the Lesser Antilles today and impact these islands for the next several days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 Sam remains a small but intense hurricane this morning, with a well-defined 10 n mi-wide eye. A 0500 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass reveals Sam has a compact inner core of deep convection surrounding its eye, with curved convective bands primarily extending around the northern and eastern portions of the circulation. Infrared cloud top temperatures briefly warmed overnight in portions of Sam's central dense overcast, perhaps due to some intrusions of drier mid-level air. The 06z objective and subjective satellite estimates ranged from 113-127 kt, but Sam's satellite presentation has improved in recent infrared imagery as cloud top temperatures are cooling around the eye. Thus, the initial intensity is held at 125 kt for this advisory. NOAA aircraft are scheduled to investigate Sam later this afternoon, which should provide helpful information about the structure and intensity of the hurricane. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/7 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of Sam should generally steer the hurricane west-northwestward to northwestward for the next several days. By midweek, an amplifying upper-level trough will move off the east coast of the U.S. and dig southward over the western Atlantic, which will erode the western extent of the steering ridge. The deep-layer southerly flow ahead of the trough should cause Sam to begin recurving, with a somewhat faster north-northwestward motion forecast by day 5. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and generally lies between the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCA aids. At days 4-5, there is more spread in the track guidance, with the ECMWF on the far left side of the guidance envelope and the GFS on the far right. The NHC forecast track has been nudged just slightly to the left at 96 and 120 h, but it still lies to the right of HCCA. The hurricane will likely experience some fluctuations in intensity during the next day or two. On the one hand, Sam remains over warm sea-surface temperatures of around 28.5 deg C, with vertical wind shear less than 10 kt as diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance. However, GOES-16 water vapor imagery shows some drier mid-level air in the surrounding environment that may periodically entrain into the inner core of Sam. Additionally, the onset of an eyewall replacement cycle remains a distinct possibility at this stage of Sam's life cycle, although the latest microwave data does not suggest one is imminent. The official NHC intensity forecast lies on the high end of the guidance for the first 36-48 h of the forecast period. Thereafter, the NHC forecast trends closer to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Some gradual weakening is forecast later in the period as the southwesterly vertical wind shear begins to increase, but Sam is still forecast to remain a major hurricane through the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 13.8N 49.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 14.3N 50.6W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 15.0N 51.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 15.8N 52.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.6N 53.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 17.5N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 18.4N 56.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.8N 59.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 24.5N 62.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart

BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sun Sep 26 2021 ...SAM REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 49.7W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 49.7 West. Sam is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. Then, a northwestward motion is forecast to continue through midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, some slow weakening is forecast. Sam is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

00z Euro is a recurve out by Bermuda