Roger Smith

Table of forecasts for September 2025 FORECASTER _______________ DCA _NYC _BOS _ORD _ATL _IAH __DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning _____________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+0.5 Roger Smith _________________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.0 _ +1.5 _+1.5 _+1.5 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 hudsonvalley21 ______________ +0.3 _-0.2 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.5 _+0.2 __+0.5 _+1.0 _+1.5 yoda _________________________ +0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _+0.4_+0.9 _+1.0 __+1.3 _+1.4 _+2.7 DonSutherland1 ______________+0.2 _ -0.1 _ 0.0 _ +0.4 _+0.3 _+0.8__+1.8 _+1.7 _+3.2 RJay _________________________+0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.1 _ +0.5 _ 0.0 _ +1.1 __+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 ___ Normal ____________________0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxallannj ____________________ -0.2 _-0.4 _-0.3 _-0.8 _+0.2 _+0.5 __+1.0 _+1.5 _+2.5 ___ Consensus ______________-0.2_-0.3 _-0.3 _-0.6 _ 0.0 _ +0.9 __+1.0_+1.4_+1.9 so_whats_happening ________-0.3 __0.0 _ +0.2 _+0.3 _-0.5 _ -0.5 __+1.2 _+1.4 _+1.3 Tom _________________________ -0.9 _-1.2 _ -1.1 __ -1.5 _ -0.8 _ +1.1 __ +1.5 _+0.6 _+1.8 BKViking _____________________-1.9 _ -2.1 _ -1.8 _ -2.3 _-0.5 _-0.4 __+1.0 _+1.8 _ +0.4 RodneyS _____________________-2.3 _ -0.9 _-0.8 _ -2.2 _-2.3 _+0.9 __+0.3 _+0.5 _+1.8 wxdude64 ___________________-2.5 _ -1.6 _ -0.9 _ -2.6 _-0.8 _ +0.5 __-0.6 _+0.7 _+1.9 StormchaserChuck1 _________ -2.6 _ -2.0 _-1.6 _ -3.5 _-0.8 _ -0.1 __ +0.5 _+0.4 _+3.0 ============ ___ Persistence _______________ -3.6 _-2.3 _-2.1 __-0.5 _-2.0 _+1.7 __+0.9 _+3.8 _+1.4 ________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts (not including Persistence) are color coded. Normal is also coldest for PHX and SEA. Persistence is colder than all forecasts for NYC and BOS, and warmer for IAH and PHX. (by small margins except for PHX)

So, all scoring is updated, you can find both the August and the annual scoring back before the September forecast posts (which began with Scotty Lightning) ... what was the intro to September post, if you even saw that, is now seasonal max scoring, and what used to be that is now the annual update appearing after the August scores. I will add a four seasons update to the annual update in a day or two. In general the scoring was a bit down from the July point-fest, and RodneyS had a bit of an edge on the field, moving up two spots as a result. There are a few other minor changes but Tom remains comfortably in front, with 2nd and 3rd being exchanged by a few points differential (so_whats_happening edged past hudsonvalley21). Also moving up, no big surprise, a certain Don Sutherland. Meanwhile, bottoming out, well let's not get hung up on details here.

I sort of expect a mid-month reversal from west/warm east/cool to the opposite, but perhaps the west will hold on to warmth anyway, going to go with 1.0 _ 1.0 _ 1.0 _ 1.5 _ 1.5 _ 1.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 2.0

Willing to bet there will be a notable warm spell in the northeast US in late September lasting into early October. It will take a while for the western ridge to deflate but it won't be there longer than 2-3 weeks.

And we have a sure winner here: 1. Don't know 2. Don't know 3. Don't know But I will be a sport and make some entirely uneducated guesses. ... Karen to become a cat-4 in early October after forming in late September. ... also nagging you to keep your social distance (too soon?)

Current scoring for Seasonal Max contest 2025 TABLE of ERRORS to date _ _ _ _ errors in italics can only increase (forecasts lower than actual or equal) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS _ ORD_ATL_IAH _ DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL Scotty Lightning ________ 04 _ 01 _ 04 ____ 06 _ 03 _ 05 ___ 00 _ 03 _ 02 _____ 28 Roger Smith _____________03 _ 01 _ 02 ____ 06 _ 02 _ 06 ____07 _ 02 _ 05 _____ 34 Tom _____________________02 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 07 _ 03 _ 04 ___ 01 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 23 hudsonvalley21 __________02 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 00 ___ 00 _ 05 _ 03 _____ 22 so_whats_happening ____02 _ 02 _ 05 ____ 05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 01 _____ 24 ___ Consensus __________02 _ 01 _ 04 ____05 _ 01 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 21 wxdude64 _______________01 _ 00 _ 04 ____ 04 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 04 _ 00 _ 02 _____ 21 DonSutherland1 _________ 01 _ 01 _ 05 ____ 03 _ 02 _ 03 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 ______ 19 RJay _____________________01 _ 02 _ 03 ____ 03 _ 00 _ 04 ___ 02 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 17 wxallannj ________________ 01 _ 03 _ 07 ____ 00 _ 02 _ 00 ___ 04 _ 01 _ 01 _____ 19 ... will be adjusted whenever seasonal max change at locations ... ... BOS can no longer affect contest standings (all forecasts already passed) (forecasts) Table of forecasts for Seasonal Max 2025 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning ________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 101 _ 103 _ 106 ___ 100 _ 121 __ 92 Roger Smith _____________ 102 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 101 _ 102 _ 107 ____107 _ 120 __ 99 Tom _____________________ 101 __ 99 __ 98 ___ 102 _ 103 _ 105 ___ 101 _ 118 __ 96 hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 101 ____ 100 _ 123 __ 97 so_whats_happening ____ 101 __ 97 __ 97 ____ 100 __ 99 _ 105 ___104 _ 118 __ 93 ___ Consensus __________101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 100 _ 101 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxdude64 ______________ 100 __ 99 __ 98 _____99 _ 101 _ 106 ___ 104 _ 118 __ 96 DonSutherland1 _________ 100 __ 98 __ 97 ____ 98 __ 98 _ 104 ___ 102 _ 117 __ 95 RJay _____________________100 __ 97 __ 99 _____ 98 _ 100 _ 105 ___ 102 _ 119 __ 95 wxallannj _________________98 __ 96 __ 95 _____ 95 __ 98 _ 101 ___ 104 _ 119 __ 93

Last 90 F (or higher) reading at NYC in the period 1970 to 2024 Aug 10 or earlier __ 1975 (Aug 5th), 1981 (Aug 10th), 1982 (07-27), 1986 (07-26)^ 1999 (Aug 5th), 2000 (Aug 9th), 2001 (10th), 2006 (3rd), 2007 (8th), 2011 (8th), Aug 11-15 _________ 1988 (15th), 1994 (14th) Aug 16-20 ________ 1984 (16th), 1987 (18th), 1997 (17th), 2009 (19th), Aug 21-25 ________ 1974 (24th), 1976 (23rd), 1978 (24th), 1996 (23rd), 2003 (22nd), Aug 26-31 ________ 1990 (27th), 1992 (26th), 2004 (28th), 2020 (27th), 2021 (27th), 2024 (28th) Sep 1-5 ___________ 1973 (4th), 1977 (3rd), 1979 (4th), 2008 (4th), 2012 (1st), 2022 (4th) Sep 6-10 __________ 1971 (9th), 1985 (6th), 1998 (6th), 2002 (10th), 2010 (8th), 2014 (6th), 2015 (9th), 2016 (10th), 2018 (6th), 2023 (8th), Sep 11-15 __________ 1989 (11th), 1993 (15th), 1995 (14th), 2005 (13th), 2013 (11th), Sep 16 or later _____1970 (26th), 1972 (17th), 1980 (22nd), 1983 (20th), 1991 (17th), 2017 (24th), 2019 (Oct 2nd) _____________ ^ 1986 had 89F on Sep 30. Median is Sep 1, average of 55 days is Aug 30. (for 1991-2024 median is Sep 2.5 and the average is Sep 2) There is a 50-50 chance of last 90 being before or after Labor Day weekend in the recent data and even way back, 47 of the 101 years not in the above list had a 90 in Sep or Oct, including every year 1936 to 1946, three of which were in October (1938, 1939, 1941). 1947 had a very warm autumn too but its September max was 89F. Despite that, the average high from Aug 31 to Sep 19 was 84F and October 1947 was warmest on record. I believe it was a bad season for forest fires in the eastern U.S.

For NYC it was September 4th. I think you wanted to know for JFK, I don't have the data but would bet it works out close to that.

_________Table of current forecast errors (over and above current count 13 5 4) ____________ ... ... ...alternate set is for addition of 14th named storm and counts of 14 5 4, 14 6 4, or 14 6 5 _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ errors to date __ points deducted _ TOTAL SCORE FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________TS _ H _ M _ errors (scoring) _ 13 5 4 (alt 14 5 4, 14 6 4, 14 6 5) matty40s (NW-3) __________________________ 9 __ 6 _ 2 __-22.5_-21_-3__ 53.5 _ (58, 64, 66) Metwatch (NW-1, 13) _______________________ 8 __ 5 _ 0 __-18 _-15 _ 0 ___ 67 _ (71, 76, 75) Roger Smith (27) ___________________________ 7 __ 6 _ 1___-14 _-21 _ -1 ___64 _ (67.5, 73.5, 71.5) CHSVol (13) ________________________________ 7 __ 5 _ 0___-14 _-15_ 0 ___ 71 _ (74.5, 79.5, 78.5) The Tall Weatherman (NW-5) _______________7 __ 4 _ 1___-14 _-10 _-1 ___ 75 _ (78.5, 82.5, 83.5) NeffsvilleWx (10) ____________________________6 __ 3 _ 1___-10.5_-6_-1 __ 82.5_ (85.5, 88.5, 89.5) marsman (14) _______________________________6 __ 0 _ 1___-10.5 _ 0 _-1 __ 88.5 _ (91.5, 90.5, 88.5) ldub23 (5) __________________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___-7.5_-15_-1 ___ 76.5 _ (79, 84, 85) Rhino16 (24) ________________________________ 5 __ 5 _ 0___-7.5_-15_ 0 ___ 77.5 _ (80, 85, 84) Midlands Ice Age (NW-2, 14) _______________ 5 __ 5 _ 1___-7.5_-15_ -1 ___ 76.5 _ (79, 84, 82) hudsonvalley21 (34) ________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 1___-7.5_-10_-1 ___ 81.5 _ (84, 88, 89) Yanksfan (8) ________________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 0___-7.5_-10_ 0 ___ 82.5 _ (85, 89, 88) nvck (32) ___________________________________ 5 __ 4 _ 0___ -7.5_-10_ 0 ___ 82.5 _ (85, 89, 88) WYorksWeather (NW-4) ____________________4 __ 7 _ 2___ -5_-28 _-3 ___ 64 _ (66, 73, 75) Tallis Rockwell (18) _________________________ 4 __ 6 _ 1___ -5_-21 _-1 ____ 73 _ (75, 81, 82) Torch Tiger (17) _____________________________4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) yoda (22) ___________________________________ 4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) ___ consensus __ (median) ___________________4 __ 4 _ 0___ -5_-10_ 0 ____ 85 _ (87, 91, 90) Normandy Ho (30) __________________________ 4 __ 3 _ 1___-5_ -6_ -1 ____ 88 _ (90, 93, 94) BarryStantonGBP (1) _________________________4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5_-6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) wxallannj (21) ________________________________ 4 __ 3 _ 0___-5_-6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) jmearroz (31) _________________________________4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5_-6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) George BM (35) ______________________________4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5_-6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) Kaari (NW-7) _________________________________4 __ 3 _ 0___ -5_-6_ 0 ____ 89 _ (91, 94, 93) cnimbus (6) __________________________________4 __ 2 _ 0___ -5_-3_ 0 _____92 _ (94, 96, 95) FPizz (9) _____________________________________4 __ 2 _ 0___ -5_-3_ 0 _____92 _ (94, 96, 95) wxdude64 (28) ______________________________4 __ 2 _ 1___ -5_-3_ -1 _____91 _ (93, 95, 93) jconsor (3) ___________________________________3 __ 4 _ 1___ -3_-10_-1 ____ 86 _ (87.5, 91.5, 92.5) BKViking (29) ________________________________3 __ 4 _ 0___ -3_-10_ 0 ____ 87 _ (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) ___ UKMO ____________________________________3 __ 4 _ 0___ -3_-10_ 0 ____ 87 _ (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) LakeNormanStormin (7) ______________________3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_-6_ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) Floydbuster (12) ______________________________3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_-6_ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) WxWatcher007 (25) __________________________3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_-6_ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) ___ NOAA _____________________________________3 __ 3 _ 0___ -3_-6_ 0 ____ 91 _ (92.5, 95.5, 94.5) Newman (15) _________________________________ 3 __ 2 _ 1___ -3 _-3 _-1____ 93 _ (94.5, 96.5, 94.5) vpbob21 (19) __________________________________2 __ 2 _ 0___-1.5_-3_ 0____ 95.5 _ (96.5, 98.5, 97.5) ineedsnow (2) ________________________________ 2 __ 2 _ 1___-1.5_-3 _-1____ 94.5 _ (95.5, 97.5, 95.5) cardinalland (14) ______________________________ 2 __ 1 _ 1 ___-1.5_-1 _-1 ___ 96.5 _ (97.5, 98.5, 96.5) NC USGS^ (33) ________________________________ 1 __ 5 _ 2 ___-0.5_-15_-3 __81.5 _ (82, 87, 84) Ga Wx (20) ____________________________________ 1 __ 4 _ 1___-0.5_-10 _-1 ___88.5 _ (89, 93, 91) LongBeachSurfFreak (4) _______________________1 __ 3 _ 0 ___ -0.5_ -6 _0 ___93.5 _ (94, 97, 96) Retrobuc (11) ___________________________________1 __ 1 _ 1 ___ -0.5_ -1 _ -1 ____97.5 (98, 99, 97) StormchaserChuck (23) _______________________ 0 __ 2 _ 0 ___ 0 __-3 _ 0 ____ 97 _ (96.5, 98.5, 97.5) Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-6) _____________________ 1 __ 4 _ 0 ___-0.5_-10_ 0 ___ 89.5 (88.5, 92.5, 91.5) Hotair (26) _____________________________________ 2 __ 1 _ 2 __ -1.5 _ -1 _ -3 ___ 94.5 (93, 91, 88) ================= mean now required (excl expert fcsts) is 3.8 _ 2.3 _ 0.0 = 100 -4.5 -3.8 -0 = 91.7 (93.6, 96.1, 95.1) ^ ... NC US Geological Survice is full user i.d. For NW entries, an equivalent order of entry to Am-Wx entries is provided for first and second entries ________________________________ Above represents storms still required. Because these are residues of initial forecasts, some are now inconsistent with possible reality, meaning more hurricanes than storms (nobody is yet stuck with more majors than hurricanes required). The scores based on this being end of season are shown. These scores can still improve going forward (except where errors are now zero or +1 or +2 shown in red type for two forecasts of 2 majors and now also one forecast of 11 storms and one of 12 (count has reached 13) -- these are the first forecasts to fall below the current count). Scores will be shown in rank order as we get closer to end of contest season. (Scoring is based on a formula where errors (E) are scored by (E+E^2)/2 in each category, with storms then divided again by 2. An error of 3 _ 2 _ 1 is scored 100 - (0.5) * ((3+9)/2) - ((2+4)/2) - ((1+1)/2) 100 - (0.5) * 6 - 3.0 - 1.0 100 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 1.0 = 93.0 ___________________________________________- To derive a potential score if none of the alternatives in table are correct, and both Melissa and potential named storm 14 are hurricanes, take the last score and add your number of hurricanes minus one (because your error will drop by one more improvement on H than the table value, as an example, a forecaster now shown with error 4 under H is already hypothetically at error 3 for the second and the last columns, so would improve from 3 to 2 in a double hurricane outcome and improve by another 3 points over and above the 4 shown in the table alternatives -- the exception would be if your remaining error goes from 0 to -1, or from -1 to -2; then you would need to take off points for the double hurricane) ... to derive a potential score for one of the two going major, add the number of your error under M (third column), as all reductions improve by that number. For example if your current M error is 2, it will still be 2 in any of the alternative scoring ... obviously don't apply to columns one or three as these do not add hurricanes, only tropical storms. Add your M error number to the values in columns 2 and 4 and you'll have a potential score for one or two hurricanes with one going major. ... Finally to estimate score if a 15th named storm appears after all of the above, take the differential in your favor from scoring errors under column S ... take the differential two ahead of your current position ... for example if you are currently losing 14 for error 7, then in columns three and four you are losing 10.5 for error 6 ... so what you then need to do is add three points as your new S error will be 7.5 for 5. Scoring table will be reposted in November in order of then current scoring.

If we eliminate any correction for urban heat island, the top ten summer averages run closer to Don's top ten. The top contenders would be 01_ 2010 _ 25.44 C __ 01 Don's list 02_ 1966 _ 25.18 C __ 02 Don 03_ 2005 _ 25.04 C __ 04_ 1993 _ 24.94 C __ 03 Don 05t_ 1983 _ 24.93 C __ 05t_ 2020 _ 24.93 C __ 07_ 1949 _ 24.92 C __ 08 Don 08t_ 2016 _ 24.85 C __ 08t_ 2022 _ 24.85 C __ 10t_ 1999 _ 24.83 C __ 05 Don 10t_ 1980 _ 24.80 C __ 06 Don 10t_ 1988 _ 24.80 C __ 07 Don 13_ 2024 _ 24.78 C __ 14_ 1995 _ 24.74 C __ 04 Don 15_ 1944 _ 24.72 C __ 16t_1943 _ 24.63 C __ 16t_2015 _ 24.63 C __ 18_ 1991 _ 24.61 C __ 19_ 1952 _ 24.59 C __ 20_ 1908 _ 24.56 C __ 21_ 1994 _ 24.55 C __ 10 Don 22_ 1973 _ 24.52 C __ 23_ 1876 _ 24.46 C __ 24t_1955 _ 24.43 C __ 24t_2002 _ 24.43 C __ 26_ 1971 _ 24.42 C __ 27t_1906 _ 24.41 C __ 27t_2011 _ 24.41 C __ 09 Don 27t_ 2021 _ 24.41 C __ 30_ 1939 _ 24.39 C __ 31_ 1981 _ 24.35 C __ 32_ 2018 _ 24.33 C __ 33_ 1953 _ 24.29 C __ 34_ 2013 _ 24.28 C __ 35t_1961 _ 24.22 C __ 35t_2019 _ 24.22 C __ 37_ 2012 _ 24.17 C __ 38_ 2008 _ 24.11 C __ This summer will finish somewhere near 30th. 1953 would move up several spots if we took June 4 to Sep 3. As I understand how Don constructed his index, this list basically tells you how well various summers converted their temperature regime to noteworthy hot days. More recent years all fail because their average warmth is based largely on overnight low performance combined with a steady unspectacular heat. If Don has a few minutes to spare, perhaps he could fill in the ranks of the other years above in his index.

NYC high of 70F was not quite a record low max (68F 1990, 2000). Today (21st) won't break the record low max either, since it was 59F in 2007 (tied with Aug 31, 1911 as lowest of all maxima in August). Record low minima for 21st to 23rd are 53 (1922), 52 (1895) and 51 (1923). Highs associated with them are in the low 70s F and not record low maxima. This indicates they were all intrusions of fall-like cooler air from the northwest and not like 21st-22nd 2007 held down by cloud and northeast winds. (max on 22nd 2007 was also a record low 65F).

1991 28th and 2002 33rd in my list; bearing in mind there really isn't much differential from about 20th to 40th, and the older years get a boost of 2 F compared to anything recent. Without that boost, about six fall out of the top 20 and all these 20-30 ranked years move up that many ranks at least. I am somewhat conflicted about applying any urban heat correction, the positive is that it allows a better assessment of climate change from other sources, the negative is that people alive in those earlier years experienced actual temperatures shown in my tables and people nowadays 2 F warmer than shown. In between, like around the 1930s, the differential was closer to 1 F. Perhaps the annual average is 2 F but seasonal differences are not all exactly the same, and I should retool the comparisons based on seasonal ranges. Summer is probably the season I would reduce the boost, and winter I might increase it, leaving it as is for spring and autumn. That would likely move 1876 down a few rungs, as well as 1906, 1908 and 1870. Oddly, while urban heat island increase is supposed to give a larger increase in overnight minima, the years making it into the top ten are known mainly for warm nights back in the early phase of NYC's urbanization. These years may have resembled 2025 more than the really hot summers of recent decades (a steady dull warmth).

Don's top ten summers 2010 1966 1993 1995 1999 1980 1988 1949 2011 1994 Their ranks in my table __ 2 __ 3 __ 11 ___ 24 __ 21 __ 14 __ 22 __ 06 __ 36 __ 30 LB favorites 1944 and 1983 finished 8 and 12. I'm not sure whether Don considered summers before 1949 in his top ten listing, or where in time his list begins, would be interesting to find out where some of my top ten (1876, 1906, 1908) finished in his list. But in general I think cool starts to June are the main determining factor in placing a given summer lower on my list, that part of summer rarely produces much of the heat content that Don's method was measuring; also, if September heat was included, none of that would affect my rankings. Even without Sep 1-3, 1953 ranked 29th. The four worst modern summers were 2009, 2000, 1992 and 1996.

In my Toronto-NYC climate study (in climate change forum) this is how I ranked the seasons after making adjustments for urban heat island. I rated the heat island at 0.2 F or 0.1 C deg every decade, until 1980, after which I held it steady ... so data from 1981 to 2025 is reduced by 2 F or 1.1 C, 1971-80 by 1.0 C, 1961-70 by 0.9 C, etc, until one reaches 1869-80 which is not reduced at all. I am going to check this against Don's list for summers. <<< Ranked seasonal means for NYC (adjusted for urban heat island) >>> 156 years are ranked. The median position is average of 78th warmest and coldest. Warmest seasons are at the top of these ranked tables; coldest are at the bottom. Ties are not directly indicated and are listed in chronological order. __ Winter 2024-25 will enter table 74th warmest 0.47 C . 2025 median is 79th warmest and coldest. __ Spring 2025 will enter the table 14th warmest 11.58 C. __ Summer 2025 is headed for a finish near 23.30 C which would be 38th warmest, but many years are jammed into a narrow range between 30th and 50th. warmest ................................................................................................ coldest RANK ___ winter _________ spring _______ summer _____ autumn ______ RANK _01 __ 2001-2002 4.20 __ 2010 12.86 __ 1876 24.46 __ 1931 15.98 ___ 156 _02 __ 2022-2023 3.92 __ 2012 12.75 __ 2010 24.34 __ 1900 15.52 ___ 155 _03 __ 1931-1932 3.90 __ 1991 12.42 __ 1966 24.28 __ 2015 15.44 ___ 154 _04 __ 2015-2016 3.90 __ 1921 12.41 __ 2005 23.94 __ 1961 15.30 ___ 153 _05 __ 2023-2024 3.66 __ 2024 12.34 __1908 24.26 __ 1946 15.23 ___ 152 _06 __ 2011-2012 3.62 __ 1945 12.24 __ 1949 24.22 __ 1941 14.98 ___ 151 _07 __ 1889-1890 3.51 __ 1903 12.03 __ 1906 24.11 __ 1881 14.97 ___ 150 _08 __ 1879-1880 3.28 __ 1985 11.98 __ 1944 24.02 __ 1953 14.90 ___ 149 _09 __ 1997-1998 3.14 __ 1977 11.87 __ 1943 23.93 __ 1948 14.74 ___ 148 _10 __ 2016-2017 2.95 __ 1986 11.79 __ 1870 23.85 __ 2017 14.68 ___ 147 _11 __ 1948-1949 2.91 __ 1979 11.74 __ 1993 23.84 __ 2024 14.66 ___ 146 _12 __ 1990-1991 2.88 __ 2016 11.68 __ 1983 23.83 __ 1902 14.61 ___ 145 _13 __ 2019-2020 2.88 __ 2023 11.66 __ 2020 23.83 __ 1979 14.61 ___ 144 _14 __ 1936-1937 2.66 __ 1942 11.54 __ 1980 23.80 __ 2005 14.60 ___ 143 _15 __ 1932-1933 2.64 __ 1946 11.54 __ 1939 23.79 __ 1908 14.55 ___ 142 _16 __ 1952-1953 2.61 __ 1998 11.43 __ 1952 23.79 __ 2016 14.53 ___ 141 _17 __ 1998-1999 2.60 __ 1910 11.38 __ 1899 23.78 __ 1898 14.51 ___ 140 _18 __ 1912-1913 2.45 __ 2021 11.37 __ 1872 23.76 __ 1971 14.45 ___ 139 _19 __ 1949-1950 2.34 __ 1981 11.36 __ 2016 23.75 __ 1985 14.46 ___ 138 _20 __ 1905-1906 2.31 __ 1878 11.26 __ 2022 23.75 __ 1927 14.44 ___ 137 _21 __ 1908-1909 2.29 __ 1871 11.22 __ 1999 23.73 __ 1990 14.42 ___ 136 _22 __ 1897-1898 2.28 __ 1969 11.19 __ 1988 23.70 __ 2020 14.40 ___ 135 _23 __ 1953-1954 2.20 __ 2004 11.18 __ 2024 23.68 __ 1959 14.37 ___ 134 _24 __ 1982-1983 2.18 __ 1955 11.16 __ 1995 23.64 __ 1884 14.34 ___ 133 _25 __ 1918-1919 2.17 __ 1987 11.16 __ 1955 23.63 __ 2007 14.33 ___ 132 _26 __ 1996-1997 2.14 __ 2022 11.14 __ 2015 23.53 __ 1970 14.32 ___ 131 _27 __ 1974-1975 2.05 __ 1949 11.12 __ 1973 23.52 __ 1968 14.28 ___ 130 _28 __ 1951-1952 1.98 __ 1962 11.12 __ 1991 23.51 __ 2011 14.27 ___ 129 _29 __ 1891-1892 1.87 __ 1959 11.11 __ 1953 23.49 __ 2001 14.25 ___ 128 _30 __ 2005-2006 1.84 __ 2006 11.11 __1994 23.45 __ 1983 14.20 ___ 127 _31 __ 1991-1992 1.81 __ 1918 11.10 __ 1971 23.42 __ 1947 14.19 ___ 126 _32 __ 2021-2022 1.75 __ 1980 11.09 __ 1900 23.34 __ 1973 14.19 ___ 125 _33 __ 1994-1995 1.74 __ 1913 11.08 __ 2002 23.33 __ 2021 14.18 ___ 124 _34 __ 2012-2013 1.59 __ 2000 11.07 __ 1961 23.32 __ 1920 14.05 ___ 123 _35 __ 1868-1869 1.54 __ 1938 11.01 __ 1938 23.31 __ 1915 14.04 ___ 122 _36 __ 1959-1960 1.54 __ 1908 10.99 __ 2011 23.31 __ 1949 14.04 ___ 121 _37 __ 1950-1951 1.40 __ 2011 10.96 __ 2021 23.31 __ 1994 14.01 ___ 120 _38 __ 1869-1870 1.39 __ 1929 10.95 __ 1937 23.29 __ 1905 13.98 ___ 119 _39 __ 1929-1930 1.37 __ 2002 10.92 __ 1901 23.27 __ 1906 13.98 ___ 118 _40 __ 2006-2007 1.36 __ 2015 10.92 __ 1892 23.26 __ 1960 13.98 ___ 117 _41 __ 1984-1985 1.35 __ 1953 10.88 __ 1896 23.26 __ 1912 13.97 ___ 116 _42 __ 2007-2008 1.35 __ 1880 10.81 __ 1898 23.25 __ 2022 13.95 ___ 115 _43 __ 1938-1939 1.29 __ 1922 10.81 __ 1981 23.25 __ 1982 13.94 ___ 114 _44 __ 1965-1966 1.28 __ 1936 10.79 __ 2018 23.23 __ 1954 13.92 ___ 113 _45 __ 1881-1882 1.27 __ 1976 10.78 __ 1885 23.21 __ 2010 13.92 ___ 112 _46 __ 2018-2019 1.27 __ 1889 10.72 __ 1957 23.20 __ 1957 13.88 ___ 111 _47 __ 1999-2000 1.23 __ 1957 10.72 __ 2013 23.18 __ 1938 13.86 ___ 110 _48 __ 1956-1957 1.18 __ 1973 10.72 __ 2019 23.12 __ 1878 13.85 ___ 109 _49 __ 1875-1876 1.17 __ 1941 10.71 __ 1930 23.11 __ 2023 13.83 ___ 108 _50 __ 2020-2021 1.16 __ 1963 10.68 __ 1970 23.10 __ 1963 13.79 ___ 107 _51 __ 1920-1921 1.14 __ 1951 10.65 __ 1880 23.09 __ 1921 13.78 ___ 106 _52 __ 1873-1874 1.11 ___ 2009 10.64 __ 1959 23.09 __ 1930 13.78 ___ 105 _53 __ 1971-1972 1.09 __ 2019 10.64 __ 1877 23.07 __ 1942 13.76 ___ 104 _54 __ 1988-1989 1.09 __ 1964 10.62 __ 2012 23.07 __ 1945 13.76 ___ 103 _55 __ 1928-1929 1.00 __ 1919 10.58 __ 1882 23.05 __ 1975 13.76 ___ 102 _56 __ 2017-2018 0.96 __ 1999 10.58 __ 1969 23.04 __ 1870 13.73 ___ 101 _57 __ 1989-1990 0.95 __ 1968 10.56 __ 1917 23.01 __ 1895 13.73 ___ 100 _58 __ 1972-1973 0.94 __ 1925 10.54 __ 1934 23.01 __ 1896 13.71 ____ 99 _59 __ 1927-1928 0.93 __ 1974 10.54 __ 2008 23.01 __1998 13.69 ____ 98 _60 __ 1923-1924 0.91 __ 1990 10.53 __ 1931 22.99 __ 1952 13.68 ____ 97 _61 __ 1979-1980 0.89 __ 1996 10.53 __ 1895 22.97 __ 1919 13.67 ____ 96 _62 __ 1946-1947 0.86 __ 1993 10.51 __ 1932 22.97 __ 1999 13.66 ____ 95 _63 __ 1973-1974 0.85 __ 2020 10.51 __ 1894 22.95 __ 1899 13.63 ____ 94 _64 __ 2004-2005 0.79 __ 1902 10.42 __1933 22.93 __ 1891 13.61 ____ 93 _65 __ 1877-1878 0.72 __ 1994 10.40 __ 1905 22.91 __ 1944 13.60 ____ 92 _66 __ 1914-1915 0.71 __ 1965 10.39 __ 1878 22.90 __ 1950 13.60 ____ 91 _67 __ 1983-1984 0.70 __ 1894 10.34 __ 1977 22.87 __ 1922 13.59 ____ 90 _68 __ 1937-1938 0.68 __ 2007 10.33 __ 1987 22.79 __ 1934 13.58 ____ 89 _69 __ 1890-1891 0.61 __ 1897 10.32 __ 2001 22.75 __1909 13.55 ____ 88 _70 __ 1899-1900 0.60 __ 1879 10.31 __ 1935 22.73 __ 1984 13.53 ____ 87 _71 __ 1992-1993 0.57 __ 2001 10.31 __ 2006 22.73 __ 1910 13.50 ____ 86 _72 __ 1895-1896 0.50 __ 2008 10.31 __ 1925 22.68 __ 2006 13.47 ____ 85 _73 __ 1986-1987 0.48 __ 1952 10.29 __ 1883 22.66 __ 1914 13.45 ____ 84 _74 __ 1930-1931 0.41 __ 1988 10.29 __ 1990 22.64 __ 1932 13.45 ____ 83 _75 __ 1907-1908 0.40 __ 2017 10.29 __ 1891 22.63 __ 2014 13.45 ____ 82 _76 __ 1987-1988 0.38 __ 1982 10.25 __ 1936 22.62 __ 1897 13.43 ____ 81 _77 __ 1975-1976 0.33 __ 1954 10.16 __ 1968 22.62 __ 1916 13.42 ____ 80 _78 __ 1888-1889 0.31 __ 1896 10.15 __ 1911 22.60 __ 1928 13.39 ____ 79 median (avg) _79 __ 1924-1925 0.30 __ 1989 10.14 __ 1948 22.60 __ 1913 13.40 ____ 78 median (avg) _80 __ 1954-1955 0.29 __ 1898 10.12 __ 1941 22.58 __ 1969 13.38 ___ 77 _81 __ 1966-1967 0.27 __ 1983 10.11 __ 1913 22.56 __ 1991 13.38 ___ 76 _82 __ 1896-1897 0.21 __ 2018 10.10 __ 1907 22.55 __ 2019 13.38 ___ 75 _83 __ 2008-2009 0.14 __ 1886 10.03 __ 1929 22.55 __ 1935 13.36 ___ 74 _84 __ 1943-1944 0.06 __ 1905 10.03 __ 1873 22.54 __ 1955 13.25 ___ 73 _85 __ 1893-1894 -0.07 __ 1933 9.99 __ 1979 22.50 __ 1995 13.25 ___ 72 _86 __ 1910-1911 -0.07 __ 1970 9.99 __ 1921 22.48 __ 2004 13.25 ___ 71 _87 __ 2009-2010 -0.08 __ 2013 9.99 __ 1887 22.46 __ 1929 13.24 ___ 70 _88 __ 1940-1941 -0.13 __ 1935 9.97 __ 1974 22.45 __ 2013 13.23 ___ 69 _89 __ 1915-1916 -0.14 __ 1944 9.95 __ 1879 22.44 __ 1918 13.21 ___ 68 _90 __ 1957-1958 -0.15 __ 1930 9.94 __ 1967 22.44 __ 1877 13.18 ___ 67 _91 __ 1964-1965 -0.16 __ 1931 9.94 __ 2014 22.44 __ 2003 13.16 ___ 66 _92 __ 1961-1962 -0.18 __ 1948 9.91 __ 1923 22.43 __ 1879 13.15 ___ 65 _93 __ 1963-1964 -0.19 __ 1939 9.85 __ 1942 22.43 __ 2018 13.12 ___ 64 _94 __ 1941-1942 -0.20 __ 1966 9.84 __ 2023 22.42 __ 1923 13.11 ___ 63 _95 __ 2000-2001 -0.25 __ 1906 9.76 __ 1960 22.40 __ 1964 13.10 ___ 62 _96 __ 1902-1903 -0.28 __ 1899 9.74 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1965 13.10 ___ 61 _97 __ 1901-1902 -0.30 __ 1975 9.72 __ 2017 22.38 __ 1966 13.10 ___ 60 _98 __ 1985-1986 -0.30 __ 1912 9.65 __ 1951 22.37 __ 1958 13.09 ___ 59 _99 __ 1955-1956 -0.37 __ 1915 9.64 __ 1954 22.37 __ 2009 13.07 ___ 58 100 __ 1968-1969 -0.40 __ 1934 9.64 __ 1918 22.36 __ 1939 13.03 ___ 57 101 __ 1900-1901 -0.44 __ 2014 9.64 __ 1998 22.31 __ 1993 12.99 ___ 56 102 __ 1926-1927 -0.46 __ 1958 9.63 __ 1884 22.29 __ 1989 12.98 ___ 55 103 __ 1913-1914 -0.48 __ 1927 9.61 __ 1978 22.28 __ 1951 12.96 ___ 54 104 __ 1906-1907 -0.49 __ 1972 9.59 __ 1910 22.27 __ 1986 12.90 ___ 53 105 __ 1925-1926 -0.50 __ 2005 9.53 __ 1904 22.26 __ 1903 12.88 ___ 52 106 __ 1916-1917 -0.55 __ 1937 9.46 __ 1909 22.26 __ 1874 12.87 ___ 51 107 __ 1945-1946 -0.55 __ 1997 9.45 __ 1875 22.24 __ 2002 12.86 ___ 50 108 __ 1898-1899 -0.59 __ 1895 9.43 __ 1947 22.24 __ 1956 12.83 ___ 49 109 __ 2013-2014 -0.60 __ 1971 9.42 __ 1928 22.22 __ 1936 12.82 ___ 48 110 __ 1942-1943 -0.61 __ 1914 9.40 __ 1897 22.13 __ 1980 12.82 ___ 47 111 __ 1870-1871 -0.63 __ 1978 9.39 __ 1890 22.10 __ 2012 12.82 ___ 46 112 __ 1978-1979 -0.63 __ 1996 9.31 __ 1972 22.09 __ 1977 12.78 ___ 45 113 __ 2010-2011 -0.64 __ 1870 9.21 __ 1975 22.09 __ 1890 12.77 ___ 44 114 __ 1980-1981 -0.68 __ 1960 9.20 __ 1922 22.07 __ 1911 12.73 ___ 43 115 __ 1981-1982 -0.75 __ 2003 9.20 __ 1920 22.06 __ 1943 12.73 ___ 42 116 __ 1909-1910 -0.76 __ 1909 9.18 __ 1945 22.06 __ 1937 12.70 ___ 41 117 __ 1921-1922 -0.81 __ 1992 9.18 __ 1989 22.05 __ 1894 12.69 ___ 40 118 __ 1939-1940 -0.82 __ 1961 9.17 __ 1964 22.04 __ 1886 12.64 ___ 39 119 __ 1970-1971 -0.88 __ 1943 9.10 __ 1912 22.03 __ 1907 12.64 ___ 38 120 __ 2003-2004 -0.86 __ 1884 9.08 __ 1894 22.02 __ 1933 12.64 ___ 37 121 __ 1995-1996 -0.95 __ 1932 9.08 __ 1919 22.02 __ 1981 12.55 ___ 36 122 __ 1960-1961 -1.00 __ 1881 9.03 __ 2003 22.01 __ 2008 12.55 ___ 35 123 __ 1934-1935 -1.06 __ 1904 9.03 __ 1940 21.99 __ 1988 12.53 ___ 34 124 __ 1883-1884 -1.08 __ 1920 9.01 __ 1986 21.99 __ 1974 12.52 ___ 33 125 __ 1886-1887 -1.08 __ 1890 8.97 __ 1950 21.97 __ 1987 12.49 ___ 32 126 __ 1911-1912 -1.16 __ 1911 8.97 __ 1963 21.95 __ 1926 12.41 ___ 31 127 __ 1876-1877 -1.18 __ 1923 8.97 __ 2007 21.94 __ 1924 12.39 ___ 30 128 __ 1894-1895 -1.18 __ 1947 8.97 __ 1874 21.91 __ 1882 12.38 ___ 29 129 __ 1885-1886 -1.21 __ 1984 8.94 __ 1985 21.90 __ 1885 12.38 ___ 28 130 __ 1967-1968 -1.31 __ 1882 8.90 __ 1958 21.89 __ 1940 12.31 ___ 27 131 __ 2014-2015 -1.42 __ 1928 8.87 __ 1893 21.88 __ 1997 12.29 ___ 26 132 __ 1958-1959 -1.43 __ 1907 8.85 __ 1956 21.88 __ 2000 12.29 ___ 25 133 __ 1871-1872 -1.50 __ 1877 8.72 __ 1871 21.87 __ 1978 12.28 ___ 24 134 __ 1878-1879 -1.54 __ 1924 8.69 __ 1962 21.86 __ 1992 12.27 ___ 23 135 __ 1944-1945 -1.55 __ 1891 8.56 __ 1997 21.86 __ 1901 12.26 ___ 22 136 __ 2002-2003 -1.55 __ 1901 8.52 __ 2004 21.84 __ 1972 12.22 ___ 21 137 __ 1993-1994 -1.57 __ 1900 8.50 __ 1869 21.83 __ 1967 12.14 ___ 20 138 __ 1922-1923 -1.65 __ 1887 8.49 __ 1889 21.81 __ 1996 12.12 ___ 19 139 __ 1969-1970 -1.73 __ 1869 8.47 __ 1982 21.81 __ 1904 12.11 ___ 18 140 __ 1947-1948 -1.79 __ 1876 8.44 __ 1916 21.80 __ 1893 12.10 ___ 17 141 __ 1887-1888 -1.93 __ 1872 8.41 __ 1888 21.79 __ 1962 11.97 ___ 16 142 __ 1977-1978 -1.94 __ 1873 8.37 __ 1924 21.76 __ 1872 11.96 ___ 15 143 __ 1882-1883 -1.95 __ 1892 8.35 __ 1914 21.75 __ 1925 11.96 ___ 14 144 __ 1884-1885 -2.01 __ 1883 8.22 __ 1996 21.73 __ 1892 11.86 ___ 13 145 __ 1962-1963 -2.03 __ 1926 8.22 __ 1926 21.70 __ 1876 11.76 ___ 12 146 __ 1872-1873 -2.07 __ 1916 8.15 __ 1965 21.62 __ 1880 11.74 ___ 11 147 __ 1892-1893 -2.18 __ 1956 8.14 __ 1886 21.57 __ 1889 11.68 ___ 10 148 __ 1933-1934 -2.21 __ 1950 8.13 __ 1946 21.52 __ 1873 11.52 ___ 09 149 __ 1874-1875 -2.45 __ 1917 8.12 __ 1881 21,51 __ 1883 11.47 ___ 08 150 __ 1904-1905 -2.45 __ 1885 8.03 __ 1992 21.40 __ 1875 11.28 ___ 07 151 __ 1935-1936 -2.64 __ 1940 8.03 __ 1915 21.36 __ 1869 11.26 ___ 06 152 __ 1903-1904 -2.86 __ 1893 7.97 __ 2000 21.18 __ 1888 11.18 ___ 05 153 __ 1880-1881 -2.92 __ 1967 7.69 __ 2009 21.10 __ 1917 11.12 ___ 04 154 __ 1976-1977 -2.95 __ 1875 7.65 __ 1902 21.09 __ 1976 11.07 ___ 03 155 __ 1919-1920 -2.97 __ 1874 7.59 __ 1927 20.57 __ 1871 10.96 ___ 02 156 __ 1917-1918 -3.90 __ 1888 6.94 __ 1903 20.42 __ 1887 10.90 ___ 01 _________________________________________

I would go for 1.0 to 1.5 inch rainfalls on Wednesday into early Thursday, looks to me like Erin will pull in the frontal band rather than reinforcing it in place, so higher potential totals may not be in play. There will be some bracing weather by later Thursday into Friday, mid 70s with a strong northeast breeze, nights 45-50 outside the urban areas and 55-60 inside. A steady 68-70 F during the rainfall, but Wed max achieved before that, 73 F.

=== ::: [] <<<<<<< Annual Scoring for Jan-Aug 2025 >>>>>>> [] ::: === FORECASTER _____DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH _ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__ west __ TOTALS Tom __________________ 519 _582 _616 __1717 __540 _518 _560__1618 _3335 __618 _566 _590__1774___5109 ___ Consensus ______ 489 _560 _574__1623__ 516 _572 _550__1638 _3261 __545 _572_650__1767 ___5028 so_whats_happening __525 _590 _542 __1657 __504 _586 _509__1599__3256 __532 _490 _630__1652___4908 hudsonvalley21 ______ 465 _554 _598 __1617 __466 _522 _567 __ 1555 __3172 __552 _534 _638__1724___4896 Scotty Lightning ______532 _564 _520 __1616 __427 _446 _570 __1443 _ 3059 __519 _612 _618 __1749___4808 DonSutherland1 ______ 437 _508 _542 __1487 __512 _540 _490__1542 _3029 __583 _530 _624__1737___4766 RJay _________________ 446 _567 _ 575__1588 __538 _598 _540__1676 _3264 __471 _471 _545__1487___4751 wxallannj _____________ 415 _490 _516 __1421 __490 _500 _532__1522 _ 2943 __546 _564 _599 __1709___4652 StormchaserChuck ___507 _550 _550 __1607 __414 _580 _ 447__1441 _ 3048 __ 517 _524 _527__1568___4616 RodneyS _____________ 494 _506 _562 __1562 __394 _468 _482__1344 _2906 __469 _502 _728__1699___4605 wxdude64 ____________442 _502 _500 __1444 __430_ 508 _494__1432 _2876__ 563 _552 _592__1707___4583 Roger Smith __________422 _492 _496 __1410 __492 _490 _494__1476 _2886 __390 _524 _583__ 1497___4383 ___ Normal ____________432 _504 _504 __1440 __418 _336 _329__1083__2523__550 _466 _596__ 1612___4135 BKViking (6/8) _______ 300 _373 _393 __1066 __378 _446 _356__1180 _ 2246 __398 _396 _419__1213___3459 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __4612 maxim (2/8) __________ 180 _ 152 _164 __ 496 ___ 96_ 120 _ 082 __298__ 794 __92 _ 90 _ 135__ 317 ____ 1111 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - prorated total __4444 Yoda _(1/8) ____________004 _044 _040 __ 088 __ 76 _ 42 _ 92 __ 210 ___ 298 __ 96 _ 56 _ 92 ___ 244 ___ 542 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- prorated total __4336 Persistence ___________288 _404 _520 __1212 ___256 _334 _476 _1066 _2278__390 _418 _538 __1346 ____3624 ____________________________ ________________________________ __ Best scores __ ^ incl tied for best score * incl 3 - 5 tied for best score _______________________ DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent__c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west__ TOTALS Tom ___________________2 *__ 1^ _ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2^ __1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 2 ___ 2^___ 2 ____2 __ Mar,Jun ___ Consensus _______ 1 *__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 so_whats_happening __ 1 *__ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2^__ 1^ __ 1 ___ 2 ____0 hudsonvalley21 ________ 1 *__ 2^__2 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 2^ ___0 __ 0 ___2^^__ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 Scotty Lightning _______ 3^*__0 __0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 3 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 3*___1 ___ 1 ____0 Don Sutherland 1 _______1 *__ 1^__ 1*____0 ___ 0 __ 1 ___0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1^ __ 0 ___ 0 ____0 RJay ___________________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2^__ 1^__ 1^ __ 3 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 1*__ 1^ ___0 ____0 wxallannj _______________0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1^ __ 1^__ 0 ___ 0____0 StormchaserChuck _____1 __ 1^__ 1 ____ 2 ___ 1^__ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___0 __ 1^___ 1 ____ 0 _Apr wxdude64 ______________1 __ 2^__ 1*___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ____1 _ Jan RodneyS _______________ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 __ 2^ __ 1^ __ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 __ 1 ___ 4^___1 _____2 _ May,Aug Roger Smith ____________ 1^ __ 2^__1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___2^__ 2^^__ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 __ 1^__ 0 ___1 ____2 _ Feb,Jul BKViking _______________ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 1 __ 0 ___ 2 __ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1*__ 0 ___0 ____0 ___ Normal ______________ 1 __ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 1 __ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 maxim __________________ 1 __ 0 __ 1* ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 __ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 __ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ============================== Extreme forecasts So far, 40 of 72 ... 18 for warmest and 22 for coldest ... Jan 1-4, Feb 1-4, Mar 5-0, Apr 6-0, May 2-6, Jun 1-1, Jul 1-1 and Aug 1-6. Forecaster ______________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_Jul _Aug __ Total___adj for ties (*2 tied, ^3 tied) Rodney S ________________ 2-1 _1*-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _3*0 _0-1_0-0 _4-0 __10-2 ___ 9.0 - 2.0 Roger Smith _____________ 0-0 _3-1 _ 0-1 _ 1*0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _1*-0_1*-0 _ 7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0 ___ Normal _______________ 1-0 _0-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 2-0 _0-1 _1-0 __2-0 __6-2 ___ 6.0 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 1-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0_0-0_ 0-1 __ 5-1 ____ 5.0 - 1.0 hudsonvalley21 __________1*-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0_ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4-1 ___ 3.5 - 0.0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-0 _0-0 _0-1 _ 4*-2 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __4-3 ___ 3.5 - 3.0 maxim ____________________1^-0_0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.33-0.0 Tom ______________________0-0 _0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*0 _ 0-0_0-0 _0-0 __ 3-0 ___ 2.5 - 0.0 wxdude64 ________________1^-0_ 0-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0_0-0 __1-0 __ 3-0 ____2.33-0.0 RJay ______________________0-0 _0-0 _0-0 _2**-0_0-0 _ 0-0_1 *-0_0-0 _ 3-0 ___ 1.5-0.0 so_whats_happening ____ 1*-0 _1*-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 __0-0_1-0 __0-0 __3-0 ___ 2.0 - 0.0 Don Sutherland __________ 1^-0_ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0_0-0 _ 0-0 __2-0 ____1.33-0.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _0-0 __1-0 ____1.0 - 0.0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _1*-0 __1-0 ___ 0.5 - 0.0 =========================================================

Final Scoring for August 2025 Scoring is based on latest posted anomalies in previous post. These scores are updated whenever the anomalies are updated. Scores with a symboi ^ are based on max 60 after all raw scores fell below 60. Due to different sets of large and small gaps in forecast values, fairest method is to add same amount to each score after high score becomes 60. For DCA, highest raw score was 56. For NYC, high raw score was 48, so twelve points were added to all raw scores. High score for BOS, ORD and ATL were above 60 so all scores for these are raw scores. All scores are now final as IAH updated. FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTALS RodneyS _________________60^_ 60^_ 70 __ 190 __ 72 _ 90 _68 __ 230 _ 420 __ 82 _ 54 _ 94 __ 230 ____ 650 Tom ______________________20^_ 56^_ 50 __ 126 __ 86 _ 42 _ 88 __ 216 _ 342 __ 94 _ 50 _100 __ 244 ____ 586 DonSutherland1 __________26^_ 56^_ 46 __ 128 __ 82 _ 56 _ 70 __ 208 _ 336 __ 86 _ 66 _ 84 __ 236 ____ 572 StormchaserChuck1 _____ 28^_ 58^_ 42 __ 128 __ 82 _ 58 _ 70 __ 210 _ 338 __ 78 _ 70 _ 82 __ 230 ____ 568 ____ Normal ______________32^_ 66^_ 58 __ 156 __ 90 _ 60 _ 66 __ 216 _ 372 __ 82 _ 24 _ 72 __ 178 ____ 550 Yoda _____________________04^_ 44^_ 40 __ 088 __ 76 _ 42 _ 92 __210 _ 298 __ 96 _ 56 _ 92 __ 244 ____ 542 so_whats_happening ____ 12^_ 50^_ 38 __ 100 __ 72 _ 48 _ 76 __ 196 _ 296 __ 88 _ 60 _ 96 __ 244 ____ 540 ____ Consensus _________10^_ 44^_ 38 __ 092 __ 72 _ 42 _ 88 __ 202 _ 294 __ 90 _ 62 _ 94 __ 246 ____540 Scotty Lightning _________ 12^_ 46^_ 48 __ 106 __ 70 _ 30 _ 94 __ 194 _ 300 __ 92 _ 54 _ 82 __ 228 ____ 528 wxdude64 _______________08^_ 34^_ 22 __ 064 __ 68 _ 48 _ 74 __ 190 _ 254 __100 _ 66 _ 90 __ 256 ____ 510 RJay _____________________02^_ 32^_ 24 __ 058 __ 54 _ 40 _ 86 __ 180 _ 238 __ 78 _ 64 _ 88 __ 230 ____ 468 hudsonvalley21 __________ 00^_ 24^_ 20 __ 044 __ 64 _ 16 _ 96 __ 176 _ 220 __ 92 _ 48 _ 92 __ 232 ____ 452 wxallannj ________________ 00^_ 28^_ 18 __ 046 __ 46 _ 36 _ 94 __ 176 _ 222 __ 62 _ 80 _ 82 __ 224 ____ 446 Roger Smith _____________ 02^_ 36^_ 22 __ 060 __ 50 _ 10 _ 78 __ 138 _ 198 __ 52 _ 80 _ 64 __ 196 ____ 394 =============== ____ Persistence __________ 04^_ 26^_ 20 __ 050 __ 48 _ 00 _ 90 __ 138 _ 188 __ 82 _ 52 _ 88 __ 222 ____ 410 ______________ EXTREME FORECAST REPORT DCA (-3.6), NYC (-2.3), BOS (-2.1), ATL (-2.0) __ All are wins for RodneyS with lowest forecasts, Normal also wins for NYC. ORD (+0.5) is a win for Tom with lowest forecast (+0.2) and also a win for Normal. DEN (+0.9) is a win for wxdude64 (+0.9) with second lowest forecast, and a loss for Scotty Lightning (+0.5). PHX (+3.8) is a win for tied highest forecasts of wxallannj and Roger Smith (+2.8). IAH and SEA are not extreme forecast qualifiers. IAH would have been a win-loss if it had been 0.1 warmer (fourth highest forecast had high score from +1.7). SEA missed qualifying by a wider margin. ======================================== NOTE: Annual scoring update follows. It will be in the post which currently contains the seasonal max scoring data, and that has moved further down the page to the former intro to September forecast post (which no longer exists). IAH scoring was finalized in an edited version of this post. It resulted in three scores going up 4 points and the rest all went down by 4 points -- the anomaly was +1.8 to 30th, 31st was a -4 day but it only dropped the anomaly to +1.7. These minor changes were also edited into annual scoring. ----------------------------- (actual forecasts) FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________

Erin is not a fish storm, it's a whale storm.

I just updated our contest stats and noted PHX at +6.3 for August so far. August 7 at 118, 94 was the warmest day (+11). No day so far this month has been cooler than +3. Up here the heat wave ended yesterday and today we have light rain and just 68 F at last look. A few days ago it was close to 100 F here. Not a lot of fires in the region this summer thankfully, the focus is further south and northeast into central Canada, but BC has done fairly well except for a couple of recent outbreaks on Vancouver Island. Heavy rain there now will be putting an end to that problem.

A report on anomalies in August 2025 ... _______________________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA ______ (anom 1-14) ____________ -3.6 _ -1.1 _ -1.2 ___ +2.0 _-3.5 _+1.6 __ +1.8 _+6.3 _+0.5 15 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________ -1.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 ___+2.0 _ -1.5 _+0.5 __ +2.0 _+4.0 _+1.5 27 _ (p anom 1-31 Aug) ________-2.5 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 ____ 0.0 _ -1.5 _ +1.5 __ +2.0 _ +4.0 _+2.0 ___ final anomalies ____________-3.6 _ -2.3 _ -2.1 ____-0.5 _ -2.0 _ +1.7 __ +0.9 _ +3.8 _+1.4 (15th) _ After quite a cool start to August in the east, recent warmth has begun to erode large negative anomalies. The central and western states have been quite warm, especially the desert southwest. This pattern looks set to continue with oscillating near average conditions in the east, sustained warmth out west although shifting more to the north later. (27th) _ Adjusted projected end of month anomalies. Scoring will also be adjusted. (31st-1st) _ Final anomalies are now all confirmed and scoring is adjusted. SEASONAL MAX to date ________ 99 _ 99 _102 ____ 95 _ 100 _ 101 ___ 100 _ 118 __ 94

Yes, hoping tomorrow evening still has good viewing because moon will rise a bit later (it's 10:00 pm here, already cooled down nicely to 72 F, and a big old moon looking like God's ear above the horizon now in east-south-east). Except for moon we have very dark skies outside of town here, good for viewing auroral displays and meteor showers and night sky etc.

LB would be in heaven here, 100/55 outside, not a cloud to be seen on satellite imagery over the entire region (just snow capped mountains). It has not been a particularly hot summer here so far but we're roasting now.

The BC forest fire situation has been relatively dormant all summer and these fires on Vancouver Island are relatively small and should be easier to fight than the massive blazes in remote areas of northern SK. Fire fighting in near-population parts of Canada is conducted in the same way as in the western U.S. and with the same success rates. There is no political foundation for any strategy of ending the forest fire risk by levelling our forests, in particular the progressives who control politics in Canada would go ballistic if anyone seriously suggested this. We've had bad forest fire seasons in the past too, this is not some new phenomenon. A large portion of northern Ontario was burned out in the summer of 1916. I can recall bad forest fire seasons in 1977 and 1980 in central Canada. Back in the day a thick forest fire haze was quite normal in the west, in an era before fire suppression began, and that is as recently as the 1920s and early 1930s. People only started to organize fire suppression in recent decades.

Table of forecasts for August 2025 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA hudsonvalley21 __________ +1.8 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ___+1.3 _ +2.2 _ +1.5 ___+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________ +1.8 _ +1.9 _ +2.0 __ +2.2 _ +1.2 _ +2.0 __ +2.8 _+2.8 _ +0.5 RJay ____________________ +1.5 _ +1.7 _ +1.7 ___ +1.8 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 Roger Smith _____________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.8 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +2.8 __ +3.3 _ +2.8 _+3.2 Yoda _____________________+1.4 __+1.1 __+0.9 __ +0.7 _+0.9 _+1.3 ___ +1.1 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 wxdude64 _______________+1.2 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 ___+1.1 __+0.6 _ +0.4 __ +0.9 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 ____ Consensus _________ +1.1 __+1.1 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _+0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +1.4 _ +1.9 _ +1.7 Scotty Lightning _________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +1.0 _ +1.5 _ +2.0 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 so_whats_happening ____ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.0 __ +0.9 _ +0.6 _+0.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.8 _ +1.6 Tom ______________________+0.6 _+0.5 _ +0.4 __ +0.2 _ +0.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _ +1.3 _+1.4 DonSutherland1 __________+0.3 _ +0.5 _ +0.6 __ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.2 __ +1.6 _+2.1 _ +2.2 StormchaserChuck1 _____ +0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 __ +0.4 _+0.1 _ +0.2 __ +2.0 _+2.3 _+2.3 ____ Normal _______________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS _________________ -1.4 _ +0.3 _ -0.6 __ +0.9 _ -1.5 _ +0.1 ___ +1.8 _ +1.5 _ +1.1 =============== ____ Persistence __________ +1.4 _+2.0 _+1.9 __ +2.1 _ +3.4 _ +1.2 ____ 0.0 _ +1.4 _ +0.8 ______________________________________________________ Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded (Persistence is not included) ... Normal is coldest for six locations, NYC, ORD, IAH, DEN, PHX and SEA.

LB, the heat wave in 1933 ran from July 30 to Aug 2, 98 _ 102 _ 100 _ 98. June 8 and 9 of 1933 also set record highs (95, 97). In 1955 there were also two very hot days in July, 100F on 22nd and 99F on 23rd. Those were records at the time broken later (1957, then 2011). The max on Aug 20, 1983 at NYC was 96F, one below the 1955 date record. 1944 and 1948 were getting quite warm by late July but there were no additional 100F readings to add to those set in August.