Roger Smith

01-26-1978 (further west of course) 11-09-1913 (also west) _ Lake huron shipping disaster 10-12-1962 west coast _ large-scale forest blowdown A very intense low near Long Island 03-01-1914 was near 950. NYC's lowest SLP. Blizzard of 1888, 1899 (Feb) also in ballpark possibly? Extreme cold and blizzards of Jan 19-22 1857. Oct 1987 in Britain All very high impact situations. ... and also full moon, tidal surge potential.

New Year's greetings to all ... forecast contest will continue but in one annual mega-thread for all of 2025, same location ... I note 3/5 NYC regulars have already posted, hoping to see everyone and even a few new participants ... I was actually in the NYC metro for the record warm NYE-NYD 1965-66, I had relatives living in Clark Township (Rahway) NJ and recall standing outside in pouring rain and occasional thunder near midnight and it was close to 65 F. Even "back home" in Ontario I learned on return it was near 60F at midnight setting two daily records (58, 57) at Toronto that are still in existence also. As some will recall, a good stretch of cold and snow followed in late Jan 1966 and it became very mild again around Feb 10 setting more records. We had 17" of snow on Jan 23rd and there was a blizzard on the east coast a few days later. We also saw 17" of snow on Feb 25, 1965 (previous winter), I believe it was a wind-rain event in NYC. I was a high school student with a home weather station, and no way to connect with other weather enthusiasts pre-internet. I don't know how any there were, probably a few from what I gather reading this forum. If I knew then what I know now, I would know now what I knew then.

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Dec 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> ... final contest results for 2024 ... FORECASTER ______________DCA_ NYC_ BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL_ IAH_____cent __ c/e ______ DEN_ PHX_ SEA __ west __ TOTALS wxallannj _______________901 _880 _914 __2695 __ 671 _904 _727 __2302 _ 4997 __687 _736 _916 _2339 ___7336 DonSutherland1 ________ 893 _916 _938 __2747 __ 747 _812 _673 __2232 _ 4957 __708 _751 _708 _2167 ___ 7119 ___ Consensus ________ 871 _868 _938 __2677 __ 687 _844 _709 __2240 _4917 __609 _704_864 _2177 ___7094 RJay ___________________ 879 _799 _806 __ 2484 __ 765 _865 _713 __2343 _4827 __633 _684 _757 _2074 ___6901 so_whats_happening ___837 _860 _928 __2625 __ 712 _ 804 _628 __2144 _4769 __601 _ 626 _ 824 _2051 ___6820 Scotty Lightning ________826 _741 _821 __2388 __ 539 _ 895 _777 __2211 _ 4599 __549 _603 _909 _2061 ___6660 Tom ____________________837 _780 _866 __2483 __ 562 _786 _677 __2025 _4508 __538 _628 _944 _2110 ___6618 hudsonvalley21 _________789 _730 _802 __2321 __ 691 _846 _740 __2277 _ 4598 __596 _590 _828 _2014 ___6612 Roger Smith ____________769 _772 _710 __2251 __ 643 _843 _623 __2109 _ 4360 __625 _820 _790 _2235 ___6595 RodneyS _______________ 593 _798 _826 __2217 __ 496 _534 _645 __1675 _ 3892 __752 _566 _928 _2246 ___6138 ___ Persistence ________ 777 _760 _774 __2311 __ 555 _780 _735 __2070 _ 4381 __ 260 _609 _800 __1669 ___6050 wxdude64 _____________ 568 _665 _795 __2028 __ 530 _553 _561 __ 1644 _ 3672 __555 _583 _877 _2015 ___5687 rainsucks (9/12) ________733 _689 _617 __2039 __ 542 _651 _593 __ 1786 _ 3825 __467 _559 _558 _1584 ___5409 (7212) BKViking (10/12) ________726 _684 _720 __2130 __ 496 _681 _599 __ 1776 _ 3906 __501 _ 596 _695 _1792 ___5698 (6838) ___ Normal ______________618 _598 _722 __ 1938 __ 512 _598 _464 __1574 _3512 __474 _468 _972 _ 1914 ___5426 Stormchaser Chuck (8/12)_512_504_556__1572 __489 _478 _408 __1375 __2947 __382 _501 _494 _ 1377 ___4324 (6486) Rhino16 (4/12) __________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ___ 2154 (6462) George BM (1/12) ________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 __ 70 __ 42 __ 160 ___ 442 ____ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ___ 590 (7080) pro-rated scores for entrants above (in brackets) can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and advanced into lower portion of forecaster group despite poor score in Dec. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 2*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ____1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 ___ 0 DonSutherland1 _________ 2 ___ 1^ ___ 3 ____ 5 *___ 2*____1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____4 ___ 3* ___1 ___ 2^____ 1 ____ 1 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 2^ ____2 *___2 _ Mar, Sep so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 0 ____1 *___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ___ 0 Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3* ___1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1*___ 3^____ 0 ___ 0 Tom _____________________ 1 ___ 2**__0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 2 *____0 _____0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____0 ____ 2**__1* ___ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1*____0 _____0 Roger Smith _____________0 ___ 3^ __ 1 ____ 1 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 4^ ___ 1* ____4 ___ 4 _Apr,Jul,Aug,Nov RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 2*___ 0 ____ 1 _____ 1 _ Jan rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1^ ___0 ____ 1 *____1 _ Feb wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*____0 ____ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2*^__ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 Normal __________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____ 0 ______0 Stormchaser Chuck _____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 2**__0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 2* ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Oct, Dec Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______1 _ Jun George BM ______________ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT A total of 74 qualified (54 for warmest, 20 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4, Sep 4-1, Oct 8-1, Nov 4-4, Dec 5-0 * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER _________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct_ Nov_ Dec __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks _____________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __ 9-3 ___ 9.0 - 2.5 Scotty Lightning ______ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 _0-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 9-0 ___ 8.0 - 0 Roger Smith ___________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2-1 __ 0-0 __ 9-3 ___ 7.5 - 3.0 DonSutherland1 _______0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0_3*-0 _ 0-0 __ 8-0 ___ 7.0 - 0 RodneyS ______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1* _ 0-1 __ 0-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 1.5 ___ Normal ____________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 __ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 __ 0-0 __ 7-2 ___ 7.0 - 2.0 Stormchaser Chuck ___ 0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 4*-1 _0-0 __ 1-1 __ 7-4 ___ 6.0- 4.0 hudsonvalley21 _______ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ 0-0 __ 6-1 ___ 4.0 - 1.0 wxallannj _______________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 __ 6-1 ___ 4.5 - 1.0 RJay __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __2*-0__ 6-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 Rhino16 ________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 __0-0 __ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 wxdude64 _____________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 __ 1-0 _ 0-1 * _ 1*-0 _0-0 __ 5-1 ___ 4.5 - 0.5 Tom ____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 __ 2-0 __ 1.5 _ 0.0 BKViking _______________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __ 2*-0 _ 2-1 __ 1.5 _ 1.0 so_whats_happening ___0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 __0-0 _ 1*-0__ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ 0.5 _ 0.0

A lot can happen in 12-15 days and the pattern looks to me like it could easily tick towards a very big storm on the east coast around mid-January, without any large changes day to day in the model runs, just a gradual evolution that you can already see is quite feasible on GFS with that slow-moving low near some odd-looking clusters of very low heights, no particular reason why that cannot all phase into one well organized stacked low drifting east through PA and NJ and that can only end up as bombogenesis given the thermal gradients. And I know from research that there's a 2-3 times random chance of a big storm developing near the January full moon, it's not a perfect fit but it's sort of like saying, would Bruins win with Bobby Orr on the ice or in the dressing room?

Continuing to see good indications around days 14-16 even if development at this long time range is weak, I can sense that any amplification of the very cold trough will quickly change the look on surface development and provide fuel for a coastal low around then. GFS for the first threat (as on other guidance and in the new thread) has so far refused to bite but in the current setup with so much mild air around, weak disturbances working with moderate cold outbreaks can fool the models quite easily before 48h. I would not be surprised if there's a 7-10 inch event around Jan 7-8, then deeper cold and a setup for a bigger storm to follow much below normal days. I can't see BN or MBN regimes staying dry next to a warm Atlantic and it's not like there's a raging northwest flow pumping in cold, dry air, it's a seep of cool, moist air from a northerly source. Hard to keep that sort of air mass stable for two weeks.

I think the big storm will come mid-January (14 to 16 time frame) and models will begin to respond to it slowly at first, you can see today at end of GFS run there's a bit of a vortmax trying to gather energy around the base of the eastern trof, but the shaping isn't conducive yet. If that feature amplifies and catches the energy peak on Jan 13-14, boom.

Thanks, my health has improved considerably since November when I was beginning to wonder if I would make it to New Years. In fact it has improved back to how it was before I felt sick. So I should be fine to continue on as usual, hoping we find a full renewal of the glorious twelve (I think) of 2024. I feel pretty confident about going earlier than I usually do with -3.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.0 _ -3.5 _ -4.0 _ +1.0 _ +6.0 _ +6.0 _ +3.5 looks like western ridge eastern trof will lock in for most of month to me, perhaps a bit less pronounced in second half, or I could see even larger departures being possible.

Day 8 on Euro is good -- already posted elsewhere -NYC- (it's only at day 6 on site I look at). Can see on day 6 it's primed for a storm to develop.

Where do they get Euro guidance so fast? .. where I usually look 00z is only out to day four (as of 0615z)

I posted anomalies around 14th and can't see them here today ?? I must have clicked on "submit" and it timed out after I went off to do something else. The post is not in any other thread or in my post history. But I certainly had it ready to post. Anyway, as of now near end of month, large positive anomalies in west, small and rapidly eroding negatives in east. Projection for final anoms and preliminary (to final) scoring ... anomalies will be edited into final values and scoring adjusted as needed. __________________________________ +0.2 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 ___ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +5.7 ___ +8.2 _ +6.5 _ +2.0^ ^ SEA report +2.1 with 31st given as missing, but daily climate report is available and reads zero anomaly, so estimate of +2.0 will be used and adjusted if missing data are adjusted. _ Final Scoring for December 2024 _ ^ IAH and DEN scored by max-60 system of minimum progression, PHX did not require it. In max-60, you get the higher of your progression score (equal steps adjusted by 2-4 for spacing fairness), or your raw score. For these large positive anomalies, any positive forecast will score at least n points where you predicted 0.n ... equal spacing used was 6 points since negative forecasts would score zero. FORECASTER _______________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH_cent_c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___TOTAL StormchaserChuck __________ 88 _ 66 _ 84 __ 238 __ 92 _ 90 _ 56^__ 238 _ 476 __ 60^_ 61 _ 78 __ 199 ___ 675 BKViking _____________________ 86 _ 96 _ 68 __ 250 __ 74 _ 80 _ 60^__ 214 _ 464 __ 54^_ 65 _76 __ 195 ___ 659 Don Sutherland1 ______________96 _ 92 _ 98 __ 286 __ 94 _ 74 _ 50^__ 228 _ 496 __ 42^_ 57 _52 __ 146 ___ 642 wxallannj _____________________ 82 _ 98 _ 84 __ 264 __ 58 _ 98 _ 52^__ 208 _ 472 __ 30^_ 21 _ 92 __ 143 ___ 615 RJay _________________________74 _ 52 _ 62 __ 188 __100 _ 90 _ 56^__ 246 _ 434 __ 54^_ 65 _ 60 __ 179 ___ 613 so_whats_happening _________ 80 _ 94 _ 88 __ 262 __ 90 _ 86 _ 38^__ 214 _ 476 __ 18^_ 29 _ 76 __ 123 ___ 599 ___ Consensus ______________ 84 _ 82 _ 92 __ 258 __ 74 _ 78 _ 42^ __ 194 _ 452 __ 33^_ 33 _80 __ 146 ___ 598 Scotty Lightning _____________ 84 _ 62 _ 82 __ 228 __ 80 _ 90 _ 44^__ 214 _ 442 __ 05 _ 10 _ 70 __ 085 ___ 527 hudsonvalley21 ______________ 92 _ 72 _ 88 __ 252 __ 74 _ 84 _ 36^ __ 194 _ 446 __ 02 _ 09 _ 62 __ 073 ___519 Tom __________________________72 _ 88 _ 78 __ 238 __ 48 _ 54 _ 30^__ 132 _ 370 __ 24^_ 23 _ 98 __ 145 ___ 515 wxdude64 ___________________ 74 _ 88 _ 94 __ 256 __ 62 _ 64 _ 32^__ 158 _ 414 __ 06 _ 14 _ 52 __ 072 ___ 486 ___ Normal __________________ 96 _ 82 _ 92 __270 __ 70 _ 70 _ 00 ___ 140 _ 410 __ 00 _ 00 _ 60 __ 060 ___470 Roger Smith ___________________52 _ 70 _ 78 __ 200 __ 10 _ 70 _ 44^__ 124 _ 324 ___ 15 _ 55 _ 76 __ 146 ___ 470 RodneyS ______________________ 22 _ 54 _ 44 __ 120 __ 20 _ 00 _ 00^__ 020 _ 140 __ 36^_ 37 _ 82 __ 155 ___ 295 ___________________________ Persistence (Nov 2024) _______ 00 _ 14 _ 00 __ 014 __ 32 _ 22 _ 84 __ 138 _ 152 __ 00 _ 00 _ 50 __ 050 ____ 202 ... It was not a good outing for Persistence. ================== Extreme forecast report ORD is a win for RJay (+1.5, high forecast) ATL is a win for wxallannj (+1.4) and a loss for StormchaserChuck (high forecast +2.0) IAH will be a win for BKViking (high forecast) DEN will be a win for StormchaserChuck (high forecast) PHX will be a shared win for RJay and BKViking (high forecasts) The rest of the forecasts did not qualify.

Even so, mild Jan 1890 had zero snowfall and Jan 1933 (Tr) is t-2nd lowest with 2008 and 2023. Jan 1934 is 5th lowest at 0.1" (it was between epic cold Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So it probably always needed cold air nearby to snow at NYC. 68 of 156 Decembers have had less snow than 2024 at 2.8" so far. The 69th lowest Jan snowfall is 4.7" and for Feb it is 5.4", mar 2.5", Apr trace, so those would be "persistence" forecasts of winter snow, adding to a total of 15.4" (69th lowest winter total is 24.5" in 1976-77, 15.4" would rank 37th lowest and close to 15.3" in 1912-13 and 15.5" in 1970-71).

Feb 1981 was 15th warmest (of 156) at NYC and 13th warmest (of same 156 and 14th of 184 total, 1842 was lone addition not in NYC data) at Toronto, records were set in second half as first half was transitional from the cold January (ranked 19th coldest NYC and 18th coldest Toronto, even better cold ranks if urban heat island correction applied). For comparison, Jan 1994 ranked 17th NYC and t4th at Toronto. I believe there was also a potent cold shot in early Jan 2010 to Florida, followed by a mild spell mid-Jan and the epic storminess from Jan 30 to late Feb (best for mid-Atl).

Probably coastal mixing Dec 31-Jan 1 4-7" snow inland ... I like Jan 13-14 for a big coastal event. A clipper to near-coast scenario in between (Jan 7-8?) Large energy peak in theory for Jan 13-14, as long as resultant storm stays off coast it could be a blizzard scenario. (if it picks up too much warm air over TN-WV it could also become an inland snowstorm and coastal mixer). First faint signs of this one at 384h on GFS. Energy cycle is 8-10 days so I won't expect to see great progs for Jan 13-14 before Jan 4-5 and it will likely show as being for Jan 11-12 for a while then get slowed down as models pick up stronger forcing.

Be optimistic for NYE-NYD potential and watch Jan 13-15 for "big one" as there is a very large energy peak around Jan 14. One medium event possibly in between. I believe there is 20-30 per cent more forcing potential than models are capable of picking up on 5-15 days ahead.

I will go on with contests in 2025, let's keep one annual contest thread ... I will always post on 25th of preceding month any news about additional contests (summer max, snowfall) and scoring will be same format. Readers who might prefer to discuss in general terms can post ideas without being entered in contest, I will only score forecasts in format of departures from 1991-2020 averages at ______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ... deadlines will be 06z of 1st of each month, and late penalties 1% per half day to 18z 4th, then 1% an hour. (7% + hrs, expiry 8th 15z) Contest will continue regardless of participation rates even if it turns into a smaller group, as we strive for the elusive new record of 810/900. A history of this contest (2013-2024) is posted in Dec 2023 contest and will migrate to Dec 2024 at end of contest year. Don't forget, no contest threads in 2025, all months will be contained and scored in this one thread. Good luck everyone, and welcome to any new participants. (scroll thru Dec 2024 contest to get an idea of what we do).

In 1981, the warmest Dec was 1891 It is now 11th warmest! 1982 began the parade of warmer Dec averages. Data in C deg and a comparison of Toronto averages and ranks (basically same story, 1923 was warmest, and is now t-6th; it's 13th for NYC) ... the older cases fare a bit better if we assume a gradually increasing urban heat island stabilizing at 2F (1.1 C) deg after 1980. ... 2015 was also warmer in Britain (by 1.6 C) than any other Dec. (9.7 C vs 8.1 in 1934). It would have been the second warmest Nov in the CET series! (It would also have been 15th warmest Nov at NYC, t42nd at Toronto). Rank _ Year _Avg __Tor rank_ avg (C) ___01 __ 2015 __ 10.44 ____ 01 ___ 5.2 ___02 __ 2023 ___7.00 ____ 02 ___ 3.6 ___03 __ 2001 ____6.72 ___ 03 ___ 3.2 ___04t__ 1984 ___ 6.56 ___ 11 ____ 1.7 ___04t__ 2021 ___ 6.56 ___ 05 ___ 2.5 ___06 __ 2006 __ 6.44 ___ 04 ___ 2.9 ___07 __ 2011 ___ 6.28 ___ 10 ___ 2.0 ___08 __ 1998 ___ 6.22 __t06 ___ 2.3 ___09 __ 1982 ___ 6.00 _ t06 ___ 2.3 ___10 __ 1990 ___ 5.89 __ 34 ___ 0.7 ___ 11 __ 1891 ___ 5.72 __ t28 ___ 0.8 ___ 12 __ 1994 ___ 5.67 __ 12 ___ 1.6 ___ 13 __ 1923 ___ 5.56 __ t06 ___ 2.3 ___ 14 __ 2012 ___ 5.28 __ 09 ___ 2.1 ___ 15t __1953 ___ 5.17 __ t20 ___ 1.1 ___ 15t __1996 ___ 5.17 __ t15 ___ 1.2 ___ 17 __ 1979 ___ 5.06 __ 41 ___ 0.3 ___ 18 __ 1931 ___ 5.00 __t28 ___ 0.8 ___ 19 __ 1956 ___ 4.94 __ 44 ___ 0.1 ___ 20 __ 1971 ___ 4.89 __t28 ___ 0.8 ___ 21t __ 1965 ___ 4.72 __t13 ___ 1.3 ___ 21t __ 2014 ___ 4.72 __t26 ___ 0.9 ___ 23 __ 1957 ___ 4.56 __t15 ___ 1.2 ___ 24 __ 2018 ___ 4.50 __t26 ___ 0.9 ___25t __1889 ___ 4.44 __t15 ___ 1.2 ___25t __1999 ___ 4.44 __t22 ___ 1.0 ___ 27 __ 1991 ___ 4.22 __ 55 ___ -0.5 ___ 28 __ 1987 ___ 4.17 __t15 ___ 1.2 ___29t __ 1881 ___ 4.11 __t22 ___ 1.0 ___29t __ 1911 ___ 4.11 __t20 ___ 1.1 ___29t __ 1918 ___ 4.11 __t50 ___-0.4 ___29t __ 1949 ___ 4.11 __t42 ___ 0.2 ___29t __ 1974 ___ 4.11 __t13 ___ 1.3 ___34t __ 1912 ___ 4.06 __t38 ___ 0.4 ___34t __ 1928 ___ 4.06 __t36 ___0.5 ___36 __ 2020 ___ 4.00 __t28 ___ 0.8 ___37 __ 1932 ___ 3.94 __t60 ___-0.9 ___38t __1973 ___ 3.89 __t82 ___-1.9 ___38t __1986 ___ 3.89 __t38 ___ 0.4 ___40t __1905 ___ 3.83 __t50 ___ -0.4 ___40t __1978 ___ 3.83 __t60 ___-0.9_ Also in top 50, recent 2013 and 2022 (t46); 2004 (t49)

I wonder how well the 1947 storm was predicted? I was active in forecasting in 1970s and generally I recall standards were almost equal to present day (if that's a good thing), but in 1947 they were going by hand-drawn prog maps and no NWP, satellite or radar. If somebody can get hold of a newspaper forecast for that storm it would be interesting. (the blizzard of 1888 had a reasonably good forecast for NYC issued from DC, problem being, it never arrived, as the storm destroyed telegraph lines that would have placed a snowstorm warning in the newspaper a few hours before it began ... in 1888 the forecast in the newspaper was basically tonight and tomorrow, sometimes an outlook for next day also. I looked this up a few years ago, DC forecaster knew it was going to change from rain to snow at midnite but nobody in NYC got that warning so people (may have) had no idea what was coming. At forecast time snow had already begun in DC). I recall a 16" snowstorm in Toronto in Jan 1966 that was well predicted, and also a 17" fall west of Toronto in Feb 1965 that we knew was going to occur. But by then satellite imagery was available and very rudimentary models were being tested. I don't think the Chicago Blizzard of Jan 1967 was any big surprise either, we knew in Toronto it was going to go rain-sleet-snow and temp would drop 30F from our record setter on Jan 25th (61F). I was following weather as a high school student then, and as a home wx-stn observer during those tremendous weather events (winter 1963-64 was a bit of a dud but all the others to about 1971-72 were good ones). I observed at various locations to about 1980. Off topic but I have 24" snow pack and 8" of it fell yesterday. It is mild but we're above rain-snow line (barely, Columbia valley has only patchy snow and bare ground in places, at 1500' below my elevation of 3300').

Sunday's max of 21F at NYC is tied third coldest for the date (Dec 22) 1871 and 1888 also had 21F, records that lasted to 1921 with 20F. That record was broken in 1989 (18F). ... tied 6th coldest were 1924 and 1955 (22F). Lowest minima for Dec 23 are -1 F 1883 6 F 1989 8 F 1872, 2022 9 F 1959,60 10F 1945 11F 1943 (will edit in how NYC did this year relative to that group)

I was interested in this too so I looked it up ... only five years had an earlier sub-20F reading after 1905 hit 20F on Nov 14 and 1967 on Nov 15 (and 16). You could say only seven years if you counted those two, no other years hit 20F and no colder before 2018 joined the slowly expanding list. 1880 joined the club on the same date as 2018 but with lower (and still record) readings so that would add one more beating 2018 if the colder reading counts. These years below 20F in order of earliest dates are 1933 _ 17F on Nov 16, 19F on Nov 17 1924 _ 19F on Nov 17 (tied by 1933) 1936 _ 18F on Nov 18, 1924 another 19F (1936 repeated 18F on 19th; Nov 20th has never been below record of 21F set in 1873) 1879 _ 16F on Nov 21, this was the earliest before 1924 despite the much less developed urban heat island 1987 _ 18F on Nov 21, first year to join sub-20F group not to set a daily record when doing so. 1880 _ 13F on Nov 22, prevented 2018 from setting a record with its 17F (also 1987 had 19F) 1880 _ 14F on Nov 23 also prevented 2018 from setting a record with 15F (also 1888 had 19F) From Nov 24 to 30, the following years joined the sub-20F list: Nov 24_ no new members, 1880 hit 14F again Nov 25_ 1938 became 9th year (19F) Nov 26_ 1932 joined, 19F was not a record as 16F in 1880 later tied by 1938. Nov 27_ 1903 and 1917 (tied 19F) joined, their record was broken by 12F in 1932. Nov 28_ 1871 (16F), 1890 (19F), 1901 (19F), 1930 (15F) eventual record low, were years 13 to 16 joining sub-20 list. Nov 29_ 1875 (14F) after 1871,72 at 15F, 1891 at 17F, 1929 and 1930 at 18F, 1955 (15F) (five of seven new to list for total of 21 so far) Nov 30_ 1875 (5F) is Nov record low, 1871 another 15F and 1872t91 (14F), new were 1887 (14F), 1958 (18F) and 1976 (17F) making it 24 years sub-20F by end of November. ... 1929 had 12F and 1936 17F (were already in list). Not only was 2018 a standout, 2017 and 2019 set early marks of 24F (11th 2017 tied 9th 1976 as second coldest so early), and 23F (13th 2019 was colder at that date than any previous year except for 23F on Nov 6, 1879).

It's quite a productive low at present, seeing 1-2" an hour in past few hours (n of Spokane at border). Perhaps models will pick up some new data as the low tracks towards n plains states.

At this point, GFS is essentially a dry transition to very cold, but other models give some support for 1-3" snowfalls Friday night into Saturday morning. The potential for 3-6" is weak but could be revived by any stronger phasing. For now I would predict 0.5 to 2.0 inches to limit error potential. (BTV could get a locally heavy lake effect snowfall too).

Decent snow potential for IA-WI around Dec 30-31, colder pattern to follow, and Jan 12-14 is a good estimate of when there could be a major winter storm in all of the midwest.

If this thing slows down, temps won't be a problem anyway, frigid air will be in place but so far it looks like 1-3" widespread (Fri-Sat, 15-20 F) and 3-6" in down east maine, to 6-12" in NB and parts of NS, PEI.

Looking at all data, NYC has seen a few cold Dec with little or no snow. In the colder half of all data, these Dec had 2.0" or less snowfall: Rank _ DEC _ Avg T _ Snow 77 _ 1900 _ 36.3 _0.1" 72t_ 1954 _ 35.9 _0.1" 72t_ 1988 _ 35.9 _0.3" 67t_ 1885 _ 35.7 _Tr 67t_ 1901 _ 35.7 _2.0" 67t_ 1977 _ 35.7 _0.4" 65 _ 1937 _ 35.4 _0.7" 63 _ 1983 _ 35.2 _1.6" 61 _ 1925 _ 34.8 _ 0.9" 59t_ 1888 _ 34.7 _ Tr 57t_ 1898 _ 34.6 _1.5" 51t_ 1906 _ 34.2 _0.3" 51t_ 1985 _ 34.2 _0.9" 48t_ 1924 _ 34.0 _0.9" 46t_ 1875 _ 33.9 _1.0" 38t_ 1934 _ 33.4 _1.0" 37 _ 1943 _ 33.0 _Tr 17 _ 1882 _ 30.6 _ 0.0" 03 _ 1989_ 25.9 _ 1.4" (note Dec 1875 was very cold first half and very mild second half)

There seems to be a lot of consensus for a snowstorm in NB, n Maine, and eastern Quebec, starting to need retrogression to shift capture closer to s NE or LI. It will definitely be quite cold for a couple of days, lake squalls and a coating of snow in NNW flow but for a big snowfall the current signal is down east. The energy peak for Dec 30-31 is starting to look like a cutter and a snowstorm for parts of the Midwest. I would keep Jan 12-14 open for consideration as timing for a really big east coast storm.