Roger Smith

Anomalies and projections after 19 days ... _____________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _______ anom 1-19 __________ -1.7 __ -1.2 __ +0.3 __ +2.5 __-0.7 _ +1.1 ___ +4.2 _ +4.1 _ +0.1 _______ p anom Sep ________ -1.0 __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 __-0.5 _ +0.5 __ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +0.5 will post preliminary scoring estimates next. Revised on Sep 24 _______ p anom Sep ________ -1.0 __ -0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 __+0.5 _ +1.5 __ +3.5 _ +4.0 _ +0.5 Final anomalies _____________+0.1 _ -0.4 _ +0.3 ___+4.3 _ +1.4 _ +2.2 ___ +5.2 _ +5.4 _ 0.0

I cannot imagine any of the four locations going above their current seasonal maxima, so I am ready to declare contest SETTLED ... Actual to date _______________________________ 104_101_104_101 Rank _ Departures ______________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ portion surpassed by maxima _01 ___ Jebman (20) _____________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 3 (1) _____ 1 _02 ___ yoda (28) ________________________ 2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 6 (2) _____5 _03 ___ Roger Ramjet (18) ________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 6 (3) _____6 _04 ___ WxDavis5784 (11) ________________5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 6 (4)_____ 6 _05 ___ wxdude64 (6) ____________________3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (5) _____ 6 _06 ___ Terpeast (10) _____________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 7 (6) _____ 6 _xx ___ ___ Consensus (median) __________4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (6.5)____7 _07 ___ katabatic (19) _____________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (7) _____ 6 _08 ___ North Balti Zen (4) _______________ 4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 8 (8) _____6 _09 ___ Weather53 (22) __________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 8 (9) _____ 8 _10 ___ LittleVillageWx (17) ________________5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (10)_____ 8 _ 11 ___ RickinBaltimore (2) _______________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _________ 9 (11)_____ 6 _12 ___ PrinceFrederickWx (5) ____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 9 (12) _____ 9 _13 ___ Gramax Refugee (15) _____________ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 9 (13) _____ 9 _14 ___ Paleocene (21) ___________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 ________ 10 (14)____ 10 _15 ___ Rhino16 (13) ______________________ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________11 (15) ____ 5 _16 ___ WxUSAF (9) ______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 _________ 11 (16)_____11 _17 ___ MN Transplant (25) _______________ 5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 11 (17) ____ 11 _18 ___ midAtlanticweather (24) __________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _________ 11 (18)_____ 10 _19 ___ TSG (7) ___________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 _________ 11 (19) _____11 _20 ___ biodhokie (8) _____________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 12 (20)_____12 _21 ___ LongRanger (27) __________________ 6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _________ 12 (21)_____ 12 _22 ___ nw baltimore wx (3) ______________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 13 (22)_____13 _23 ___ Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 _________ 13 (23) ____ 1 _24 ___ nmyers1204 (29) __________________7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 13 (24)____ 12 _25 ___ GATECH (26) ______________________5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 14 (25) ____14 _26 ___ Jenkins Jinkies (14) _______________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 __________14 (26) ____14 _27 ___ Eskimo Joe (16) ___________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________15 (27) ____ 15 _28 ___ tplbge (23) ________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _________16 (28) ____ 16 _29 ___ George BM (12) ____________________4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 ________ 29 (29) ____ 0 _xx ___ ___ mean (avg) ___________________ 3.9 _ 0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 _____ 7.0 _______ 6.8 Congrats to Jebman who had a clear victory over the field with only three error points; yoda was a solid second (six error points), and Roger Ramjet as well as WxDavis5784 also had six but their error patterns placed them 3rd and 4th. Three forecasters tied for most correct forecasts (two): Roger Ramjet, WxDavis5784 and TSG. All three nailed IAD and RIC (101). Our consensus was also accurate for them. A few others got one of these locations correct. Nobody was exactly correct for DCA or BWI (104), closest calls being 1F for DCA (Jebman 105, Roger S 103), and also 1F for BWI (Jebman and WxDavis5784 both at 103F). On to fall and winter contests ... good luck !!!

Count is 6/4/1. Will probably be 7/4/1 soon if TD Seven is a named storm (later edit, TS Gordon). For now, table of "storms needed to verify" is based on 6/4/1, will re-edit if we are at 7/4/1. (table is two posts back now) ... Gordon's fate is not clear, may eventually become a weak 'cane. Table is now edited for 7/4/1 for now.

Table of forecasts for Sept 2024 FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 __________________+2.5 _ +2.7 _ +2.6 __ +2.7 _ +2.1 _ +2.2 ___ +2.7 _ +2.1 _ +0.6 Scotty Lightning _________________ +2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +1.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.0 rainsucks ________________________+1.6 _ +2.0 _ +2.2 __ +3.3 _ +1.8 _ +2.4 ___ +3.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.0 RJay _____________________________+1.2 _ +1.3 _ +1.4 __ +3.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +4.0 _ +3.2 _ +2.7 BKViking _________________________ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ +0.5 _ +0.3 _ +1.0 ___ +1.9 _ +1.8 _ +1.8 so_whats_happening _____________+0.9 _ +0.5 _ +0.1 __ -0.2 _ +0.4 _ +0.8 ___ +1.0 _ +1.4 _ +2.5 ___ Consensus __________________+0.7 _ +0.6 _ +0.7 __+0.7 _ +0.4 _ +0.9 ___+2.0 _+2.1 _+1.2 wxallannj _________________________+0.5 _ +0.6 _ +0.7 __ +0.6 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ___ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +1.4 Tom ______________________________+0.4 _ +0.5 _+0.6 __ +0.8 _ -0.1 _ +0.6 ___ +0.7 __+1.1 __ +0.6 ___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 Don Sutherland 1 __________________ 0.0 _ -0.1 _ -0.1 __ +0.8 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +1.8 _ +2.5 _ +2.7 Roger Smith ______________________ -0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.4 __ -0.6 _ -1.0 __ -1.2 ___ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.5 RodneyS _________________________ -1.6 _ -0.7 _ -0.4 __ +0.3 _ -2.0 _ -0.3 ___ +2.0 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 wxdude64 ________________________-2.6 _ -1.8 __ -1.1 ____-1.3 _ -0.5 _ +0.4 ___ +0.5 _ +1.4 _ +0.3 ________________ Persistence (Aug 2024) ___________-0.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 ____ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4 ___ +2.7 _ +4.4 _ -0.6 =============================== Warmest and coldest forecasts are color coded; Normal is also colder than all forecasts for DEN, PHX and SEA.

Daily records for NYC ... info is partly available in daily climate reports, but this log adds features like low max, high min, and 2d rainfall totals. For 2d rainfall totals, note, records indicated are for that day and previous day. In a few cases, previous day has no rainfall (*) and in a few other cases, it had all the noted rainfall (**) (e.g. Sep 8 1934 had all rainfall noted as 2d record ending Sep 9 1934). Also, note a few daily low min records have daily max in brackets if value was not itself a record low max. In Sep, only six days actually set both on same day -- three were tied (for low max record). ^ indicates a note below calendar with additional information. ===<<< SEPTEmBER RECORDS >>>=== Date ____ high max __ high min ______ low max ____ low min _____ 1d rain ____ 2d rain ___ also 1d, 2d Sep 01 ___ 97 1953 ____ 76 1898^_______ 59 1869 _____51 1869 _______ 7.13 2021 ___ 7.13 2021*__ 3.84 1927 Sep 02 ___102 1953 ____79 1898 _______ 62 1869_____51 1886 ________2.12 1899 ___ 7.23 2021 __ 3.88 2d 1927^ Sep 03 ___ 99 1929 ____ 78 1898 _______ 62 1935 _____50 1885, 93 ___ 3.32 1969 __ 3.44^1974 (0.18+3.26) Sep 04 ___ 97 1929^____78 1898 _______ 66 1984 _____47 1872, 83 ___ 3.48 1913 ___ 6.28 1969 (3.32+2.96) _ 3.48 1913* Sep 05 ___ 94 1985 ____ 77 1898^_______62 1926 _____51 1963 (63) ___ 2.45 1878 __ 4.14 1913 __ 2.80 1878 2d Sep 06 ___ 97 1881 ____ 78 1985 _______ 56 1963 _____48 1924 (69) ___ 3.26 2008 __ 3.54 2008 __ 3.22 2011 (1d) Sep 07 ___ 101 1881 ____ 79 1881 _______ 63 1877,88 _ 46 1888 ________ 2.07 1998 ___ 4.43 2011 (3.22 + 1.21) _ 3.26 2008** Sep 08 ___ 97 2015 ____ 76 2015 _______ 63 1918 _____52 1871 (65) ___ 4.86 1934 ___ 5.48 1934 __ 3.77 2004 (1d) Sep 09 ___ 94 1915 ____ 77 1884 _______ 61 1880,83 _ 48 1883 ________ 0.86 1902 ___4.86 1934** Sep 10 ___ 97 1931,83 _ 77 1884 _______ 62 1883 _____43 1883 ________ 1.80 2023 ___1.82 2023 __ (1.58 2015 _ 1d) Sep 11 ___ 99 1931,83 _ 78 1983 _______ 61 1876,1914 _43 1917 (62) _____ 2.90 1954 ___3.46 2023 _ 3.30 1954 _ 2.57 1882 (1d) Sep 12 ___ 94 1961 ____ 77 1895 _______ 62 1883 _____46 1917 _________ 2.35 1960 ___3.23 1882 (2.57+0.66) _ 2.66 1960 (2d) Sep 13 ___ 94 1952 ____ 75 1890 _______ 59 1965 _____46 1963 (65) ___ 3.94 1944 ___5.58 1944 __ 3.37" 1889 2d (1.89+1.48) Sep 14 ___ 93 1931 ____ 74 1947 _______ 60 1873 _____46 1911, 75 _____ 3.82 1944 ___7.76 1944 _ 3.10 1945 (1d) ^ Sep 15 ___ 92 1927 ____ 75 1931,2005 _ 57 1954 _____44 1873 (65) ____ 4.16 1933 ___7.00 1933 (2.84+4.16) Sep 16 ___ 93 1915 ____ 73 1903,2005 _ 60 1872 _____47 1966 (70) ____ 5.02 1999 ___5.44 1999 __ 4.38 1933 (2d) Sep 17 ___ 93 1991 ____ 77 1991 _______ 57 1945 _____45 1986 (69) _____ 3.37 1876 ___4.14 1874 __ 3.28 1874 (1d) Sep 18 ___ 91 1891 ____ 72 1905, 72 ___ 60 1875 _____44 1990 (61 17th) _ 3.92 1936 ___6.23 1874 (3.28+2.95) (7.09" 3d) Sep 19 ___ 94 1983 ____ 74 1906 _______ 51 1875^____ 44 1929 (62) ____ 4.30 1894 ___5.16 1894 __ 3.95 1936 (2d) Sep 20 ___ 93 1895, 1983_77 1906 _______ 59 1901 _____44 1993 (62 21st)_ 2.32 1989 ___4.21 1989 (1.89 + 2.32) Sep 21 ___ 95 1895 ____ 77 1895 _______ 56 1871 _____40 1871 ___________ 5.54 1966 ___ 5.74 1938 __ 4.05 1938 (1d)^ Sep 22 ___ 95 1895,1914_75 1895 _______ 55 1875,1904_41 1904 __________ 2.34 1882 ___ 5.64 1966 __ 3.55 1882 (2d) Sep 23 ___ 97 1895 ____ 77 1970 _______ 57 1963 _____41 1947 (60) _____ 8.28 1882 ___10.62 1882 __ 2.72 1919 (1d) Sep 24 ___ 91 2017 ____ 74 1970 _______ 52 1887 _____40 1963 (62) _____ 2.26 1975 ___ 8.30 1882 __ 4.56 1975 (2d) Sep 25 ___ 90 1970 ____ 71 1881,1970 __ 53 1879 _____40 1887 (63 26th) _ 2.36 1940 ___3.31 1975 __ 7.43" 4d total 23-26 1975 Sep 26 ___ 91 1881, 1970_74 1895 _______ 54 2000 _____42 1940 __________2.34 2008 ___ 2.87 1975 __ 2.35" 1991 (1.97+0.38) Sep 27 ___ 90 1933 ____ 75 1881 _______ 56 1893 _____41 1947, 57 _______ 3.13 1985 ___ 3.58 1985 Sep 28 ___ 88 1881 ____ 72 1891 _______ 53 1984 _____41 1947(61 27th) _ 3.84 2004 ___ 3.84 2004 * Sep 29 ___ 88 1945 ____ 72 1959,2015 _ 53 1888 _____42 1888,1914,42 _ 5.48 2023 ^___ 5.84 2023 _ Sep 30 ___ 89 1986 ____ 70 1959 _______52 1888 _____39 1912 (60) _____ 2.64 1983 ___ 2.64 1983 * __ 2.21 1920 (1d) -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- NOTES in calendar above ^ 1st high min shared 1898, 1980, 2010, 2015 ^ 2nd, 3rd 1953 min 77, 77. also 75 on 3rd, 1973. ^ 2nd __ note also 3.00" 2-3 for 1899 ^ 3rd 2d rain 1969 3.45" (0.11 + 3.32) .01" less than 1974 2d. ^ 1st-7th hot in 1898: 93, 93, 93, 92, 90, 88, 88 (no records though, set or shared high min 1st-5th) ^ 5th high min shared 1898, 1907, 1985, 2018 ^ 14th 2d rain 1971 4.34 (0.58 + 3.76) ... 3d 12th-14th 6.10" ^ 19th min with record low max was 45 (one higher than daily low min) ^ 20-21 the 2d rainfall total occurred with stalled fronts associated with the "Long Island Express" hurricane, with rain on 19th added the three day total was 7.50" and a further 0.63" fell on 17th-18th. The heavier rainfall on 21st 1966 pushed the daily max of 4.05" out of the record column. The 1966 rainfall was not of tropical storm origins. The 2d total for 20-21 was 5.56" (only 0.02" added from 20th) which did not quite exceed the 2d total for 1938. ^ 28-29 4.68 2004 (3.84+0.82) and 28-29 another heavy 2d rainfall was 3.04" in 1907 (0.91+2.13). ^ 29 record rainfall before 2023 was 2.18" 1963 Many of the heavy rainfalls noted in August and September were associated with hurricanes or tropical storms moving up the east coast. The event on Sept 22-23 was a weak tropical storm (4 of 1882) (weak in terms of wind gradient) that dissipated near NYC on 23-24 Sept 1882. The event in mid-Sept of 1944 was the "Great Atlantic hurricane" which made landfall in eastern Long Island on the evening of Sept 14, 1944. The heavy rains of mid-Sept 1933 were associated with a stalled front and Hurricane 12 of that very active year (the "Outer Banks Hurricane") which passed southeast of the region on the 16th-17th. Records for 26-27 were set by Gloria (1985) which made landfall near Babylon NY just east of NYC.

Four Seasons Contest __ Summer 2024 Update Points for four seasons ... 10 for first (total 3 scores), 7 for second, 6 for third, etc, 1 point for all entrants with 2/3 or 3/3 _____________________________ Winter _____________ Spring __________ Summer ________________________ Annual to date FORECASTER _________TOTAL_Points ___ TOTAL_Points ______________ TOTAL_Points ___ Contest TOTAL _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Jun _ Jul _ Aug wxallannj ________________ 1736 ___10 _____ 2224 ___10 ____ 446 652 588 ___ 1706 ___6t ____ 26 Roger Smith _______________ 793 ___ 1 ______2124 ____6 _____558 704 692 ___ 1954 __ 10 _____17 ___ Consensus ____________1408 ___3.3 ____2088 __5.5 ____ 502 636 620 ___ 1758 ___ 6.2 ___ 15.0 DonSutherland 1 __________1524 ___ 7 _____ 2010 ___ 3 _____ 442 640 612 ___ 1694 ___ 4 _____14 so_whats_happening _____ 1487 ___ 5 ______1946____2 _____450 672 584 ___ 1706 ___ 6t _____13 RJay ______________________1391 ___ 3 ______2142 ___ 7 _____ 568 450 562 ___ 1580 ___ 1 _____ 11 Tom ______________________ 1038 ___ 1 ______2050 ____5 _____516 566 600 ___ 1682 ___ 3 _____ 9 Scotty Lightning __________ 1184 ___ 1 ______ 1900 ____1 _____ 596 640 670 ___1906 ___ 7 _____ 9 RodneyS __________________1497 ___ 6 ______1700 ____1 _____ 346 622 582 ___ 1550 ___ 1 _____ 8 rainsucks __________________1111 ____ 1 ______2040 ___ 4 _____582 412 628 ___ 1622 ___ 2 _____ 7 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 1450 ___ 4 _____ 1918 ____ 1 _____472 552 544 ___ 1568 ___ 1 _____ 6 BKViking __________________1336 ___ 2 ______1921 ____ 1 ______560 --- 570 ___ 1130 ____ 1 _____ 4 wxdude64 ________________ 1098 ___ 1 ______1722 ____ 1 _____334 608 470 ___ 1412 ____1 _____ 3 ___ Normal ________________ 1002 ___ 1 _____ 1474 ____ 1 _____ 324 542 604 ___ 1470 ___ 1 _____ 3 Stormchaser Chuck ________792 ____ 1 ______708 ____ 0 _____ 390 510 584 ___ 1484 ____ 1 _____ 2 Rhino16 ____________________ 747 ____ 1 ______ 672 ____ 0 _____ 739 --- --- ______ 739 ___ 0 _____ 1 ***= = ====================== [[[]]] ====================== = =*** Persistence ________________ 972 ____ 1 _____ 1818 ____ 1 ______ 596 506 490 ___1592 ___ 1 _____ 3 ____________________________ GeorgeBm 590 in July only entry not qualified for contest points. ... Wxallannj is guaranteed to win in any plausible scenario.

-0.3 _ -0.5 _ -0.4 __ -0.6 _ -1.0 _ -1.2 ___ +2.5 _ +2.7 _ +1.5

Not a forecast but interesting ... winters of 1931-32 and 1932-33 were very mild and snowless. Winter 1933-34 was very cold and snowy. It would be a good repeat. (Dec 1933 and Feb 1934 extreme cold, Jan 1934 near average).

<<<< ===[]===[] .......... ==== Annual scoring for Jan-Aug 2024 ==== ..........[]===[]=== >>>> wxallannj _______________ 586 _552 _580 __1718 __ 518 _628 _526 __1672 _3390 __522 _558 _600 _1680 ____ 5070 ___ Consensus _________ 562 _556 _580 __1698 __500_590 _532 __1622 _3320 __460 _536_548 _1544____4864 rainsucks _______________ 663 _637 _555 __1855 __ 462 _559 _497 __1518 _ 3373 __409 _513 _478 _ 1400 ____ 4773 DonSutherland1 _________560 _586 _606 __1752 __ 516 _528 _ 464 __1508 _ 3260 __528 _498 _460 _1486____ 4746 so_whats_happening ___ 542 _538 _572 __1652 __ 509 _554 _478 __1541 _ 3193 __ 496 _470 _536 __1502____ 4695 Scotty Lightning ________547 _485 _521 __ 1553 __ 390 _619 _573 __1582 _ 3135 __ 455 _487 _585 __1527 ____ 4662 RJay ____________________578 _557 _510 __ 1645 __ 490 _575 _470 __1535 _3180 __ 440 _519 _507 __1466 ____ 4646 Roger Smith ____________ 514 _484 _402 __1400 __ 532 _631 _494 __1657 _ 3057 __ 456 _596 _468 __1520 ____ 4577 hudsonvalley21 _________504 _456 _492 __1452 __ 470 _574 _546 __1590 _3042 __ 482 _464 _506 __1452 ____ 4494 Tom ____________________500 _470 _510 __ 1480 __ 414 _552 _506 __ 1472 _2952 __436 _504 _568 __1508 ____ 4460 RodneyS _______________ 424 _520 _558 __1502 __ 353 _436 _508 __ 1297 _2799 __542 _390 _590 __1522 ____ 4321 BKViking (7/8) __________486 _456 _480 __1422 __ 385 _479 _429 __ 1293 _ 2715 __386 _479 _473 __ 1338____4053 (4632) wxdude64 ______________373 _397 _503 __1273 __ 442 _409 _459 __ 1310 _2583 __457 _443 _543 __ 1443 ____ 4026 --------------------- Persistence _____________ 582 _534 _572 __1688 __326 _546 _434 __ 1306 _2994 _ 136 _440 _480 __1056 ____ 4050 Normal __________________368 _352 _454 __1174 __ 426 _424 _404 __ 1254 _2428 _ 398 _388 _626 __ 1412 ____ 3840 Stormchaser Chuck (6/8)_326 _350 _382__1058 __334 _320 _314 ___ 968 _2026 __252 _358 _348 __ 958 ____ 2984 (3977) Rhino16 (4/8) ____________ 210 _186 _198 __ 594 __ 227 _286 _216 __ 729 __1323 ___230 _341 _260 __ 831 ____ 2154 (4308) George BM (1/8) ___________88 _ 98 _ 96 __ 282 __ 48 _ 70 __ 42 __ 160 __ 442 ___ 98 __ 18 __ 32 __ 148 ______ 590 (4720) pro-rated scores for entrants above can be better compared to field and Normal. Persistence stayed well above Normal and back near last in forecaster group. ----------------------------------- Best forecasts * tied wins (one per * ) ^ 3 forecasters tied (plus Consensus and normal -- 4 for SEA for 2024-03 and PHX for April ) FORECASTER ___________DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e _ DEN_PHX_SEA__west___ TOTAL wxallannj ________________3*___ 1*___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2** __0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___2*___ 3* ___ 2 ______ 1 _May ___ Consensus _________ 0 ___ 1^____ 0 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^____0 _____ 0 rainsucks _______________ 2 ___ 3 ____ 2 ____ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 1 _ Feb DonSutherland1 _________0 ___ 1^ ___ 2 ____ 3* ___ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2^____ 0 ______ 0 so_whats_happening ____0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 Scotty Lightning _________1 ___ 2^___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 2* ____ 1* ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2^____ 0 ______ 0 RJay _____________________1*___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1*____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1^ ____1 ______ 1 _ Mar Roger Smith _____________ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ____0 ___3*** _ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 3^ ___1* ____3 _____ 3 _Apr,Jul,Aug Tom _____________________ 0 ___ 2**__0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______ 0 hudsonvalley21 _________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2**__ 1*___ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*____ 0 ______ 0 RodneyS ________________ 1 ___ 1 ____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 3 ___ 1*___ 0 ____ 1 ______ 1 _ Jan wxdude64 _______________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1^___ 0 ____ 0 ______0 Normal __________________ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 3^____0 ______0 Rhino16 _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ____ 2 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 2 ______ 1 _ Jun Stormchaser Chuck _____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2**__0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ____0 _____ 0 George BM _______________0 ___ 1^ ___ 1 _____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 July NYC five tied, added to table ^ ... tied total score of DonS and George for eastern total not indicated as tied. RodneyS also DEN in July EXTREmE FORECAST REPORT so far, a total of 47 qualified (33 for warmest, 14 for coldest) ... ... Jan 2-2, Feb 8-0, Mar 4-0, Apr 4-2, May 3-2, June 7-1, July 2-3, Aug 3-4. * tied for a win or loss, scores adjusted in final col. FORECASTER ___________ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug __ TOTAL __ adj for ties rainsucks ________________2-0 _ 4-0 _ 2-0 _ 0-2* _ 0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___8-2 ___ 8.0 - 1.5 Roger Smith ______________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-1 _ 2*-1 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-0_1-0 ___ 7-2 ___ 5.5 - 2.0 Scotty Lightning _________ 0-0 _ 2*-0_0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 3-0 _ 0-0 _2*-0 __ 7-0 ___ 6.0 - 0 RodneyS _________________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0 -0 _ 3-0 ____ 6-0 ___ 6.0 - 0 Rhino16 __________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 4-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 5-0 ___ 5.0 - 0 wxallannj _________________0-0 _ 1*-0_ 0-0 _ 2*-1 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0_0-0 ___ 5-1 ___ 3.5 - 1.0 ___ Normal _______________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 3-0 ____ 5-2 ___ 5.0 - 2.0 hudsonvalley21 __________ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 3**-0_0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-1 ___ 4-1 ___ 3.0 - 1.0 wxdude64 _______________ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _2-0 _ 0-0 ____ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 DonSutherland1 __________0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-0 _ 0 -0 _ 1-0 ____ 3-0 ___ 3.0 - 0 Stormchaser Chuck ______0-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 2*-0 _0-0 _0-0 _ 0-0 ____ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0 RJay _____________________ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1-2 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 1*-0 ___ 2-2 ___ 1.5 - 2.0 BKViking _________________ 0-0 _ 0-1 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-1 Tom, swh __________________0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 _ 0-0 ___ 0-0

Greetings, a reminder to regular NYC forecast contest entrants Sep contest is open, post before long weekend to avoid forgetting and late penalties. Enjoy your weekend.

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ... DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Deadline is 06z Sep 1st Given timing of Labor Day weekend, will contact regulars to remind.

Strong winds all over southern BC and sw Alberta on Friday late afternoon as frontal boundary generated storms. Cool air over PNW (55-60 F) clashed with warmer air n of front (85 F); low developed and tracked into Alberta overnight, now into the cool air here with a steady rain. Gusts estimated 60 mph for around half an hour, lucky not to lose trees or power locally, other locations not as fortunate.

Final scoring for August 2024 FORECASTER __________________DCA_NYC_BOS __ east __ ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e ___ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ____ TOTAL Roger Smith _____________________74 _ 56 _ 58 __ 188 __ 92 _ 92 _ 86 __ 270 _ 458 __ 92 _ 94 _48 __ 234 ____692 Scotty Lightning ________________ 58 _ 50 _ 66 __ 174 __100 _100_ 98 __298 _ 472__ 66 _ 54 _ 78 __ 198 ____670 rainsucks ____ (-1%) ____________ 77*_55*_57*__ 189 __ 79*_93*_69*__241 _ 430 __ 81*_73*_44 __198 ____ 628 ____ Consensus ________________ 58 _ 48 _ 50 __ 156 __ 98 _ 92 _ 86 __ 276 _ 432 __82 _ 54 _ 52 __ 188 ____620 DonSutherland1 _________________ 68 _ 50 _ 56 __ 174 __ 96 _ 82 _ 60 __ 238 _ 412 __100_ 70 _ 30 __ 200 ____612 ____ Normal _____________________ 98 _ 80 _ 86 __ 264 __ 80 _ 60 _ 52 __ 192 _ 456 __46 _ 14 _88 __ 148 ____ 604 Tom _____________________________40 _ 24 _ 38 __ 102 __ 82 _ 96 _ 96 __ 274 _ 376__ 96 _ 52 _ 76 __ 224 ____ 600 wxallannj ________________________54 _ 38 _ 50 __ 142 __ 92 _ 96 _ 88 __ 276 _ 418 __82 _ 54 _ 34 __ 170 ____ 588 so_whats_happening ____________64 _ 48 _ 48 __ 160 __ 98 _ 92 _ 74 __ 264 _ 424 __82 _ 54 _ 24 __ 160 ____ 584 StormchaserChuck1 _____________70 _ 50 _ 62 __ 182 __ 82 _ 78 _ 74 __ 234 _ 416 __ 62 _ 58 _ 48 __ 168 ____ 584 RodneyS ________________________100 _ 76 _ 84 __ 260 __ 64 _ 58 _42 __ 164 _ 424 __ 72 _ 28 _ 58 __ 158 ____ 582 BKViking ________________________50 _ 24 _ 30 __ 104 __ 94 _ 90 _ 96 __ 280 _ 384 __70 _ 48 _ 68 __ 186 ____ 570 RJay ____________________________38 _ 20 _ 32 __ 090 __ 86 _100_ 98 __ 288 _ 378 __76 _ 44 _ 64 __ 184 ____ 562 hudsonvalley21 _________________34 _ 22 _ 36 __ 092 __ 72 _ 84 _ 86 __ 242 _ 334 __ 94_ 56 _ 60 __ 210 ____ 544 wxdude64 ______________________ 54 _ 38 _ 50 __ 142 __ 92 _ 66 _ 56 __ 214 _ 356 __ 36 _ 26 _ 52 __ 114 ____ 470 Persistence _ (July 2024) _______ 44 _ 38 _ 48 __ 130 __ 72 _ 90 _ 32 __ 194 _ 324 __ 58 _ 74 _ 34 __ 166 ____ 490 ==================================== Extreme forecast report DCA, NYC, BOS, SEA _ Coldest forecasts are all high scores. RodneyS takes three (DCA, NYC, BOS) and Scotty L takes one (SEA). Normal also wins for all except DCA, being closer to outcomes. DEN is a win for Don S (+2.7) and a loss for hudsonvalley21 (warmest +3.0). PHX is a win for Roger S (warmest +4.0) IAH is a win for RJay and Scotty L (+2.5) and a loss for hudsonvalley21 (+3.1). ORD, ATL no extreme forecast. (forecasts) FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA hudsonvalley21 _________________+3.2 _ +2.9 _ +2.5 __ +2.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.1 __ +3.0 _ +2.1 _ +1.4 RJay ____________________________+3.0 _ +3.0 _ +2.7 __ +1.7 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 Tom ____________________________ +2.9 _ +2.8 _ +2.4 __ +1.9 _ +2.2 _ +2.2 __ +2.5 _ +1.9 _ +0.6 BKViking ________________________+2.4 _ +2.8 _ +2.8 __ +1.3 _ +1.5 _ +2.2 __ +1.2 _ +1.7 _ +1.0 wxallannj ________________________+2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.8 __ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +2.7 wxdude64 ______________________ +2.2 _ +2.1 _ +1.8 __ +0.6 _ +0.3 _ +0.2 __ -0.5 _ +0.6 _ +1.8 Scotty Lightning _________________+2.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.5 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +0.5 ____ Consensus ________________ +2.0 _ +1.6 _ +1.8 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.7___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +1.8 so_whats_happening ____________ +1.7 _ +1.6 _ +1.9 __ +1.1 __+1.6 _ +1.1 ___ +1.8 _ +2.0 _ +3.2 DonSutherland1 _________________ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 __ +1.2 _ +1.1 __ +0.4 __ +2.7 _ +2.8 _ +2.9 StormchaserChuck1 ____________ +1.4 _ +1.5 _ +1.2 __ +0.1 _ +0.9 _ +1.1 ___ +0.8 _ +2.2 _ +2.0 Roger Smith ____________________ +1.2 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 __ +1.4 _ +1.6 _ +1.7 ___ +2.3 _ +4.0 _ +2.0 rainsucks ____ (-1%) ____________ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +1.4 ___ 0.0 _ +1.7 _ +0.9 __ +1.8 _ +3.0 _ +2.2 ____ Normal ______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 RodneyS ________________________ -0.1 _ +0.2 _ +0.1 ___ -0.8 _ -0.1 _ -0.5 ___ +1.3 _ +0.7 _ +1.5 Persistence _ (July 2024) ______________+2.7 _ +2.1 _ +1.9 _____ -0.4 _ +1.5 _ -1.0 ______ +0.6 _ +5.6 _ +2.7 ====================================

Seasonal max contest _ scoring update ... new high for ORD (99 F) (a) Forecasts FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA Scotty Lightning __________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 ____96 __ 104 _ 118 ____ 100 _ 121 __ 92 wxdude64 ________________ 102 _ 102 _ 102 ___ 101 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 104 _ 118 __ 98 Roger Smith _______________102 _ 100 _ 100 ____101 __ 101 _ 109 ____ 104 _ 119 __ 97 rainsucks __________________102 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 104 __ 102 _ 107 ____ 104 _ 120 __99 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 101 _ 101 __ 99 ____ 95 ___ 98 _ 103 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 98 Rhino16 ____________________101 _ 100 __ 99 ___ 102 __ 102 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 115 __ 98 ___ Consensus ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 ____99 __ 101 _ 106 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 97 DonSutherland1 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ____ 96 ___ 97 _ 104 ____ 101 _ 118 __ 97 Tom _______________________ 101 __ 98 __ 98 ____ 99 ___102 _ 106 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 96 RJay _______________________100 __ 98 _ 100 ___ 100 __ 101 _ 105 ____ 100 _ 119 __ 95 so_whats_happening ______100 __ 98 __100 ____ 97 ___ 99 _ 102 ______98 _ 119 __ 97 RodneyS ___________________99 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 96 ___ 97 _ 102 _____ 99 _ 118 __ 97 wxallannj __________________98 __ 98 __ 96 _____ 99 ___ 97 _ 102 _____101 _ 120 __ 95 __ max to date (Aug 27) __104 _ 95 __ 98 _____ 99 __ 100 __102 _____102 _ 118 _ 98 (b) Errors to date underlined-italic errors are subject to increase as values so far are above forecast. Sum of "accumulated non-reversible error" appears after error totals. Current ranks are now listed. rank _FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS__ORD_ATL_IAH__DEN_PHX_SEA ___ TOTAL ___ Acc n-rev err 1 __ Tom _______________________ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 0 __ 2 __4 ___ 3 __ 0 __ 2 _____17 ______(8) t2 __ DonSutherland1 ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 3 __ 2 ___ 1 __ 0 __ 1 _____18 ______(11) t2 __ so_whats_happening ______ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 ____ 4 __ 1 __ 1 ____18 ______(12) t2 ______ Consensus ___________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 0 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 18 ______(6) t4 __ RodneyS ___________________5 __ 4 __ 1 ____ 3 __ 3 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 0__ 1 ____20 ______(16) t4 __ hudsonvalley21 ___________ 3 __ 6 __ 1 ____ 4 __ 2 __ 1 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 0 _____20 ______(11) t4 __ RJay_______________________ 4 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 1 __ 1 __ 3 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 3 _____ 20 ______(9) t4 __ wxallannj___________________6 __ 3 __ 2 ____ 0 __ 3 __ 0 ___ 1 __ 2__ 3 _____ 20 ______(15) 8 __ wxdude64 ________________ 2 __ 7 __ 4 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 4 ___ 2 __ 0 __0 _____ 22 _______(2) t9 __ Rhino16 ___________________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 3 __ 2 __ 4 ___ 2 __3 __ 0______ 23 _______(8) t9 __ Roger Smith ______________ 2 __ 5 __ 2 ____ 2 __ 1 __ 7 ___ 2 __ 1 __ 1 _____ 23 _______ (3) 11 __ rainsucks _________________ 2 __ 5 __ 1 ____ 5 __ 2 __ 5 ___ 2 __ 2 __1 ______ 25 _______ (2) 12 __ Scotty Lightning __________ 1 __ 5 __ 0 ____ 3 __ 4 __16 ___ 2 __ 3 __ 6 ____ 40 ______ (12) =================================== Scoring will be updated whenever new data require, and table will eventually be moved to Sep contest. (99 ORD Aug 27)

/Anomalies and projections ... ________________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA __ (anom 1-17) ______________ +1.0 __ 0.0 _ +0.6 __ -0.1 _ +2.6 _ +2.2 ____ +1.5 _ +5.3 _ +0.4 __ (p anom 1-31) _____________+0.5 _ -0.5 _ -0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.5 _ +2.5 ____ +2.5 _ +4.0 __-1.0 __ Final anoms _______________ -0.1 _ -1.0 _ -0.7 __ +1.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.4 ____ +2.7 _ +4.4 __-0.6* * SEA adjusted -0.8 to -0.6 for msg data, no scores were differently adjusted as lowest forecast is +0.5. Previous estimates were adjusted on 08-29.

"Rest of season" forecasts look like a typical full season forecast list. Our consensus (and expert consensus not a lot lower) now needs a very robust Sep-Oct to verify. Rest of season values can be seen in previous post above original forecast table. Count is 5/3/1.

At any location, you are more likely to see Perseid meteors after midnight because in the second half of the night, the earth is turning towards the oncoming meteor swarm. There is no real "peak" to Perseids, you can see a few every night from about August 10 to 15 -- there is a 33-year peak because the comet that blew apart to form this swarm left more debris in one part of the 33-year orbit of debris; previous peaks were around 1899, 1933, 1966 and 1999, so it's a few years away ... most Perseids will originate in northeast quadrant of sky and track towards southwest. The constellation Perseus is in that part of sky in August, hence name Perseids.

Similar contests elsewhere have scoring formats like that, best 10 of 12 in one case, and a points structure that includes average score as well as total score (but only applies to entrants who miss fewer than three of twelve) in another. It often ends up being a very similar top ten to raw score alone, but one or even two bad scores won't sink your chances. Anyway, I inherited an all-12 total score format when I took over contest scoring around 2012. So we've never had a discussion of it, perhaps some people did before I came along. But personally I like the total score of all contests idea, even though I a pretty certain I would be in a better rank if we went best 10 or even 11 out of 12. As a pro forecaster, you know you are judged (or recalled) by the worst of your forecasts, and that's a reality of the forecast business (I am not technically a pro forecaster although people follow my forecasts a lot in Ireland and UK). For BKV who could end up entering 11/12, we could add a reasonable low score but I think the pro-rated adjustment (adding one average score in that case) is a good way to judge "real" ranking, and as there's no awards or prizes involved, that's probably good enough.

Downtown Toronto's July rainfall (199.0 mm or 7.87") was actually second to 1841 just after station opened in 1840, it was wettest at YYZ but records only go back to 1938.

Total rain at Montreal's downtown airport (also known as Dorval) on Friday was 154 mm (6.06"). Granby located closer to n VT border reported 110.4 mm 4.34". Some strong wind gusts near 45 also reported.

Apparently locations in southern Quebec are going to record all-time record daily rainfalls in the 5-7 inch range by end of day. I will try to get some actual totals on Saturday a.m. -- Audrey (1957) a Gulf 'cane June 28-29 1957 set some of records in question.

Yesterday avoided tying low max of 69 (1903) at NYC by rising to 70 by 11:59 pm.

Watch it whizz out to sea.

Today's record low max for NYC is 69 (1903). Record low min of 54 was on same date. It is relatively rare for both records to occur together, only two other August dates have the double record (2nd 1875 and 11th 1962). In most cases, after a record low min is set, there is enough sunshine to boost temps to around 72-75 F in a cool air mass (high 60s by later Aug), and almost all record low maxima occur on cloudy days allowing temps to remain below 70F (or low 60s by later Aug). Aug 19 is only date with a 70F low max (rest are in range of 59 to 69), the monthly extreme is 59F from 21st, 2007, tying 31st 1911. These cloudy, cool days are rarely followed by clearing and a record low min, that only occurred once (low max 9th 1879, low min 10th 1879). Record high max and min occur more frequently together, August has nine such occurrences, albeit some involve tied years on one or both elements. Another six pairs involve a record high max followed by a record high min the next day, three of those were in the group of nine concurrent pairs (i.e., the mins were a second consecutive record high min). When the record high max is not accompanied by a record low min, the value is often within 2-4 F of the record. As to record rainfalls being concurrent with record temperatures of either variety, in August the only example is that 3.76" rain was a daily record on Aug 31, 1911 (low max 59F).

EDIT Sep 27 for Helene, and H Isaac and TS Joyce EDIT Oct 3 for Kirk and Leslie Count is now (set at) 12/8/3 (if Leslie becomes a 'cane, it is 12/7/3 now) ... "rest of season" forecasts are based on that probability. ... your forecasts were already posted in an earlier table (and are repeated below table), this will be a "forecast of rest of season" for all entrants. NOTE: Post no longer being edited, a later post is being edited ... <<< DERIVED FORECASTS for REST of 2024 SEASON >>> FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________storms _ hurr _ major TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 27 ____ 18 _____ 4 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 21 _____ 7 _____ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 21 _____ 6 _____ 4 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________20 _____ 9 _____ 5 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 20 _____ 4 _____ 1 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 17 _____ 7 _____ 2 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 17 _____ 5 _____ 4 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 4 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 3 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 15 _____ 9 _____ 3 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________15 _____ 9 _____ 2 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________15 _____ 6 _____ 5 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 14 _____ 7 _____ 4 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 13 _____ 9 _____ 7 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 13 _____ 8______ 0 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 5 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 4 ncforecaster89 (38) _________________________13 _____ 4 _____ 3 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 2 JonClaw (23) ________________________________13 _____ 4 _____ 2 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 1 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 13 _____ 0 _____ 2 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________12 _____ 6 _____ 3 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 12 _____ 6 _____ 1 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2 Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 Eyewall (late) ________________________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 3 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 2 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 1 ___ Contest consensus (Median) ___________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 StormchaserChuck1 (4) ______________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 3 GeorgeBM (37) _______________________________11 _____ 5 _____ 3 FPizz (18) ____________________________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 1 ___ Expert consensus ________________________ 11 _____ 3 _____ 2 Hotair (28) ___________________________________ 11 _____ 3 _____ 1 Southmdwatcher (42) ________________________ 10 _____ 7 _____ 5 Snowlover2 (15) ______________________________ 10 _____ 6 _____ 3 cardinalland (26) _____________________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 3 Yoda (30) _____________________________________10______ 4 _____ 2 ___ UKMO forecast ___________________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 1 Seminole (25) ________________________________ 10 _____ 3 _____ 0 Metwatch (NW-1) ____________________________ 10 _____ 2 _____ 1 ldub23 (40) ___________________________________ 9 _____ 3 _____ 2 ___ NOAA median forecast ____________________ 9_____ 2.5 __ 2.5 Gawx (35) _____________________________________ 9 _____ 2 _____ 2 Pauldry (IE-1) __________________________________ 9 _____ 0 _____ 1 Rhino16 (2) ____________________________________ 8______ 4 _____ 2 Torch Tiger (13) _______________________________ 8 ______ 3 _____ 3 vpBob (27) ____________________________________ 8 ______ 1 _____ 2 jlauderdal (36) _________________________________ 7______ 1 _____ 2 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ______________________ 7______ 0 _____ 0 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) _____________________ 6 ______3 _____ 2 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) __________________ 6 ______2 _____ 1 wkd (29) ________________________________________3 _____ 1 _____ 1 tae laidir (IE-4) _________________________________ 3 _____ 1 _____ 1 Retrobuc (12) ___________________________________ 1 ______ 0 ____(-1) Consensus is median of on-time forecasts, late forecasts are not used. Sep _ Now as Isaac reached h'cane, wxdude64 is first contest entrant to reach a position where numbers are not attainable (more majors than 'canes in this case). A number of others now have equal numbers of canes and majors required to complete forecast. Oct _ A few additional forecasts are now out of sequence, or need Leslie to reach major status. ============================== (original forecasts) TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 33 _____ 15 ______ 8 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 25 _____ 14 ______ 8 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7 ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5 JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 24 _____ 14 ______ 4 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5 Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 24 _____ 12 ______ 5 Eyewall (late) ________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4 ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________ 24 _____ 12 _____ 5 StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 GeorgeBM (37) ______________________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4 ___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5 Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4 Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8 Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6 cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6 Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5 ___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4 Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3 Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4 ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5 ___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5 Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5 Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4 Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5 Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________20 _____ 11 ______ 6 vpBob (27) __________________________________20 ______ 9 ______ 5 jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4 wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4 tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4 Retrobuc (12) ________________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2 -------------------------- (previous notes) If season is 50% done and stays on current intensity, end result is 12 8 2 Our consensus says season is 1/4 done. All forecasts (were) still "valid" (do not involve unattainable values e.g. 9 _ 3 _ 4) (since updated) Table is updated for every new storm once its full development is confirmed.