jaxjagman

PDS on that cell once again

Looks like the cell headed towards Jonesboro has recycled

Probably maybe just as well keep an eye into the GOM in a few weeks for some early TG,those SST's are really warm

Yeah the monsoonal flow is changing as we head more into spring

Probably watch the models tonight and even in the morning.Some of the cams show some discrete cells after the cap breaks in the afternoon,We could possibly hit 85 tomorrow which would break our record.Nashville sure sounds concerned National Weather Service Nashville TN 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020 .DISCUSSION... As a citizen of Middle TN, I hate writing these AFDs. However, as a met and a scientist, they`re the ones you wait for. Now look, tomorrow isn`t going to be an April 2011 kind of day, nor do I expect for us to have a repeat of March 3rd. However, tomorrow evening, despite the differences in the models warrants everyone in Middle TN, especially those along and west of I-65 (this includes but is not limited to the Metro area) to be very weather aware tomorrow evening. Let`s start with what`s going on now: A mix of sun of clouds and a warm breeze is making for a great day across Middle TN. Temperatures are running about 20 degrees above average which is a welcomed increase in temperatures for spring. The southerly winds will continue to blow overnight. Not gusty, but the warmth and persistent increase of low-level moisture will continue. I have 67 for a morning low tomorrow and while I don`t expect us to remain above 70, the record max low temperature for March 28th is 70 degrees set in 1907. Unexpected cloud cover in the morning would likely help us break that record, but as I said, unexpected. As we get into the afternoon hours tomorrow and the boundary layer continues to warm and low-level moisture increases, temperatures should be as warm or warmer than today. That means tomorrow`s high temperature will also be under assault. I have 83 in there and the record is only 85 set in 2012. If you`re a regular reader of the AFD, you see where we`re headed here... Throughout the day tomorrow, an intensifying low pressure system will continue to develop over the Plains. In the afternoon, those well north of us will be dealing with problems of their own, but as the front nears Middle TN tomorrow evening, we very well could have issues, too. I alluded to it earlier, forecast soundings aren`t in great agreement, but the only thing they aren`t in great agreement about is how bad it`ll be. As is normal, the NAM is the outlier in this situation. It`s a little slower, it has winds out of the south (which would increase the low-level helicity and in turn, the discrete supercell potential) as well as instability that is considerably higher than other models. Fingers crossed that the GFS and Euro are closer to the actual solution. That wouldn`t absolve us from a severe weather threat, just the overall severity of it. GFS soundings show surface winds that are veered compared to the NAM. This means more of a QLCS and a straight-line wind threat (but still NOT a zero tornado threat). All of that said, I`m leaning towards the GFS solution. The main surface low is well north of us and the overall system is very wrapped up, becoming occluded at the point when the the front starts to near Middle TN. We don`t TYPICALLY get discrete cell development in this scenario. A NAM solution would require the development of a secondary surface low closer to the mid- state and right now, the likelihood of that is low. So the main thing we`re going to want to monitor tomorrow afternoon and early evening: what are the surface winds doing? The more southerly they are, the better chance of discrete development (and a better tornado threat). More of a southwesterly component, we should be looking at the development of a line, less low-level helicity and a reduced chance of things getting out of hand -- but still a severe wind threat. Here`s the next problem: models continue to show this as another nocturnal event. That means it`s going to be after dark before the cap can break and develop occurs (no matter what kind). I`m looking at a 6 pm to midnight event, and 6 pm might be a touch early. This means today is the day to make sure you have multiple ways to get warnings. A properly programmed NOAA Weather Radio, your cell phone (make sure it`s turned on and up) and preferably one other way -- all something that will wake you up if you go under a warning and you`re sleeping. Storms/rain should be off the Plateau before sunrise and we`ll return to these fantastic dry conditions we`ve been experiencing the last couple of days. Our next shot at rain won`t be until Tuesday. Current trajectories keep Tuesday`s system from being severe for us, but will need to be monitored over the coming days. &&

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2020 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms, including the potential for hail/wind damage along with a few tornadoes, are expected over the Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians vicinity. ...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to southern Appalachians... Bands of elevated showers/thunderstorms are ongoing early this morning across the Ozarks into much of Tennessee and northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A low-amplitude shortwave trough/mid-level speed max over the south-central Plains and Ozarks early today will steadily progress eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley by early evening. In response to this feature, a weak surface low will shift into Arkansas by early afternoon as the frontal zone that is currently draped across the central Gulf States lifts north toward the Tennessee border. This surface low will then track along the wind shift into middle Tennessee by early evening. Diurnal heating will be maximized ahead of the surface low across Arkansas where low-level flow should veer and surface temperatures should reach convective temperatures by mid-afternoon. Surface-based supercells are expected to initially develop across eastern Arkansas into western Tennessee/northern Mississippi within the warm sector and near the warm front. This activity will develop within strong deep-layer shear, but low-level shear is not forecast to be particularly strong initially given the southwesterly surface winds. The surface-based nature of these storms suggests all hazards are possible, including a few tornadoes. Hail will be the primary risk north of the warm front. While exact later-day positioning of the warm front is a bit uncertain, there is concern that a somewhat more focused/heightened supercell and tornado potential could materialize across portions of Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama in vicinity of the surface triple point. Near the modestly deepening surface low/warm front, low-level shear/SRH will be maximized with an enlargement of hodographs expected toward sunset. Portions of Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama will be reevaluated later today for the possibility of a higher risk category (Enhanced).

Euro might be playing a April fools joke on yall in the east with a potent system cutting through around Birmingham that gives yall some wrap around snow

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2020 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, a tornado or two and hail will be possible in the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday. ...Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A fast-moving shortwave trough will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will move eastward into the Ozarks with a warm front extending eastward from the low into the Tennessee Valley. Thunderstorms associated with a marginal severe threat will be likely to the northeast of the surface low across southern Missouri during the morning. As the low moves eastward, low-level flow will strengthen across the Tennessee Valley. In response, low-level moisture will increase with surface dewpoints reaching the lower to mid 60s F from northern Mississippi into western Tennessee. Surface heating should enable MLCAPE to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range by afternoon. Surface-based thunderstorms appear likely to develop across just ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. This convection is forecast to move eastward across the Tennessee Valley during the afternoon reaching the southern Appalachians by early evening. Forecast soundings across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday afternoon show strong deep-layer shear profiles and steep low-level lapse rates. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be 65 to 75 kt range which should be favorable for supercells and short bowing line segments. A tornado threat, along with a potential for wind damage and hail will be possible with supercells. Short line segments should also be capable of producing wind damage. The severe threat is expected to become isolated as scattered thunderstorms move eastward into the southern Appalachians and southeastward into the central Gulf Coast States during the evening. ..Broyles.. 03/23/2020

Yes and should wait and see if/where any triple point sets up Tues afternoon,think the question will be how far the warm front lifts north

Euro starts to kick in the LL/Shear into the morning and afternoon Tuesday,more into the western and possibly the Middle Valley.,could get some supercells develop.NAM shows the TT'S 52-54 mid afternoon into Mid Valley but like always it could be over doing it but it did do well IMO when Nashville had its Tornado recently even at this range,still wouldnt trust it.Like BNA stated it should go into a QLCS Tuesday as it progress eastward with mesocyclones possibly embedded. Much as i like severe weather,i'm hoping this won't happen this time,anywhere ational Weather Service Nashville TN 216 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 .DISCUSSION... Showers are showing up on radar just off to the west of the TN River currently, and moving eastward. Rain will continue eastward through the afternoon and evening, and still expecting the heaviest rainfall after midnight for areas south of I-40. Around an inch to an inch and a half will be possible closer to the AL border as the upper trough moves through the OH River Valley tonight. Left in mention of thunderstorms in the southern zones where some instability will work its way into the area overnight. Showers should come to an end from west to east during the day, with some lingering showers holding on in the afternoon on the Plateau. Monday night early on looks to be dry as we will be between troughs, but the next stronger Plains trough will be moving eastward and start impacting the area Tuesday morning. Warm air will already be in place from the previous trough, but the next trough will bring a warm front through the area Tuesday morning after sunrise, allowing more warm moist air to spread over the region. Model soundings show a shallow low level inversion that should limit convection early on, but once the warm front passes through, the mid state will be uncapped in the warm sector for the rest of the morning and afternoon. The GFS/NAM have heavier showers and thunderstorms mainly along the I-40 corridor and northward Tuesday before noon, and enough instability is around for some strong to severe storms during that time. After the warm front passes, there may be a brief break before additional storms develop ahead of the cold front in the warm sector during the afternoon, and spread eastward. As the trough and its axis approach the mid state, both instability and shear increase, along with low level helicity. MLCAPE values around 500 to 1000 J/kg look likely across the area during the afternoon, with the NAM not surprisingly showing slightly higher values. Deep layer shear is consistent between the models, however, showing 60 to 70 knots from 0-6km. Low level shear and helicity increase mid afternoon through the early evening, with 0-3km helicity values around 300 m2/s2 during that time. Model soundings also showing some decent dry air aloft, with mainly moist adiabatic lapse rates later in the afternoon. Better mid level lapse rates exist in the morning before earlier convection works it over a bit. All of this would suggest that damaging winds will be the primary threat, and could occur from late morning through the mid evening. Hail looks more likely in the late morning through mid afternoon, and will also be more likely with any isolated stronger convection that develops ahead of the squall line/QLCS. A few tornadoes can also not be ruled out, but as of right now, look more likely from mid afternoon to the early evening when convective mode looks more linear/QLCS-like. 00Z models tonight and even 12Z runs tomorrow morning will hopefully paint a better picture and help narrow down timeframes a bit more for Tuesday.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2020 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage, a tornado or two and hail will be possible in the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Tuesday. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A large cluster of thunderstorms, associated with a marginal severe threat, should be ongoing Tuesday morning just ahead of the shortwave trough in central and southeastern Missouri. This convection, located on the northern edge of the moist sector near a surface low, is expected to move eastward across southern Illinois and into parts of western Kentucky around midday. Surface dewpoints should reach the lower to mid 60s F by afternoon across much of southern Kentucky, Tennessee and northern Mississippi. In response, MLCAPE may increase into the 800 to 1000 J/kg range from just south of the Ohio River southward into northern Mississippi. Surface-based thunderstorms that develop in this area Tuesday afternoon could obtain a severe threat due to the strong deep-layer shear in place. O-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 70 to 80 kt which would be favorable for supercells and bowing line segments. Although wind damage would be the primary threat, hail would also be possible with the stronger updrafts. Low-level shear is also forecast to be sufficient for an isolated tornado threat. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong ahead of the short-wave trough. This may be enough for squall-line development during the late afternoon across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. If this occurs, the wind damage threat could be maintained into early evening. A chance for QLCS tornadoes would be possible, associated with rotating cells embedded in the line. Due to the potential for a severe convective line, the slight risk has been expanded eastward across much of middle Tennessee and central Kentucky.

Not sure you should use sig severe outbreak.Outbreak is a outbreak but i know what you mean.Nothing anywhere would compare to 2011

Or the old saying"The agony of defeat"

Would think we could see a slight risk the next upcoming update.GFS and Euro aren't far off but still some timing this afternoon with synoptics on the 12z run today Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2020 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 and Tuesday/Day 5... On Monday, the medium-range models move a shortwave trough across the southern Plains. A moist airmass is forecast to advect northward into the Red River Valley with a dryline setting up across western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible to the east of the dryline Monday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear associated with a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet is forecast to create conditions favorable for severe storms. Supercells and bowing line segments will be possible with a potential for tornadoes, wind damage and large hail. The magnitude of the threats will likely depend upon how much moisture can return northward and how much instability can develop on Monday. At this time, the potential for a severe weather event appears great enough to warrant adding a 15 percent area. On Tuesday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast to be in place in most of the southeastern states. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys where enough instability and deep-layer shear should be in place for a severe threat. A tornado threat along with potential for wind damage will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. A threat area could be added as confidence increases concerning where the greatest severe threat will be.

Just in case you didn't know,,the hospital sent my wife a memo this morning about this https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-ibuprofen-coronavirus-worse-200316045046677.html?fbclid=IwAR1Oh6h1X7Oc37tGmc1KvQHJ8jaTraoA1DNKuFbrfbjsRvddCrS4L_X28tQ

When we had the big outbreak in 2011 this was basically from a resurgent Nina into 2011.This is where the NA SST tripole was negative but started to transition to +ve.The Enso is going to be a big player with out a doubt into next winter.Not sure i'd proclaim next winter as gloom or doom right yet.It seems possible next winter might be colder than you think it will be and warmer the next

My son stays at the Auburn Hub,they match kids via a computer program,not sure how it works but its based on personalities,the apt he stays at has 4 people with rooms in each apt,its really unique but works out really seemingly well,all of them just came back from the North Carolina last week doing community service,i met them all before,good group of kids

Our kids are going to the computer,well my youngest ones.My oldest in Auburn they were going to Dothan,then their parents found out and told them to go to Panama City they have a beach house,so thats where they are going,they just dont have no toilet paper..lol

You could be right but there signs the AO could go negative which would bring colder air into the lower levels with throughs in the east especially with the -PNA which has been on going thanks to the Rex blocking into the AK and GOA which the PNA could go +, we couldnt get this look in winter

Could be depending on what kind strain it is which is unknown.If its like the common cold or flu it will die off when temps start to get in the mid to upper 70's.We've never seen this strain before tho so no one knows how it will act

I hate scumbags,these two are.Kudos to Amazon and Ebay https://www.seattletimes.com/business/he-has-17700-bottles-of-hand-sanitizer-and-nowhere-to-sell-them/?utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=owned_echobox_f&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3vJBgwe3upuBSF4DpQegSl9hWbEPDgDcttru4-YyPyQGNbFLciMqdLzyc#Echobox=1584204030

Yeah beside Corona the tree pollen is getting brutal already,the rains will just knock the pollen to the ground and when people start cutting grass,i already have a sinus headache just thinking about it..lol

By the looks this would be a good call with a early terminating Nino into spring

This is the right map of Jamstec,as i said above i wasn't sure that map was correct