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nrgjeff

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  1. nrgjeff
    It was quiet between 2015 and 2019. Easter Sunday night was enough for me in town. East Tennessee is really not the bullseye. Chattanooga very much reminds me of Kansas City that way. It's close, but the real action is to the southwest. Chattanooga:Huntsville :: KC:Wichita. Then BHM/JAN = OKC/OUN. Knoxville is even less active than Chatty. Heart of Dixie Alley is a fairly easy drive from here; so, my interest is sustained.
  2. nrgjeff

    Welcome!

    nrgjeff replied to Mr Bob's topic in Tennessee Valley

    This is by far my favorite place to talk Tennessee, Mid South and Dixie Alley weather, both snow and severe. Our Region is the best and that ranking includes AmWx and any other one out there. Celebrate seven years! We'll go 70 years!
  3. nrgjeff
    Sorry Judah those are bird farts. Continue jostled but tight strato PV. We'll have to hope for -AO in the troposphere. Sorry I'm in Cynic Mode. There is still hope for after Christmas into early January. While NWP keeps losing sharp cold waves, it's also losing blowtorch days. Variable can get the job done in January.
  4. nrgjeff
    Tonight and midweek systems still have some promise at higher elevations like the Plateau and Mountains. Perhaps even an upward surprise there. Lower elevations look too warm despite 850 Ts. Thickness and surface forecasts are not there. Looking to the New Year models (ensembles and weeklies) all seem to be trending colder at the very end of December. We'll see if it holds. Failure modes include Alaska or Greenland. About a third of the member have both blocked, which is of course bullish.
  5. nrgjeff
    Yeah looks like rain now. Too cool for severe. Too warm for snow at lower elevations. And clooouuudyyy, yuck! Do Belize or Aruba take American tourists right now?
  6. nrgjeff
    LOL Carvers! When gas traders starting talking about the MJO, money is about to be lost. First the bad news. Boundary layer BL remains a disaster at lower elevations. Just too warm. Good news is the -NAO is pretty consistent. A little retrograde would get the job done for higher elevations like the Plateau and Mountains. Agree with @tnweathernut above a weak Miller A is better, esp this warm BL environment. At least higher elevations could get it. This isn't November or late Feb. Looks like a decent pattern for late December into the New Year.
  7. nrgjeff
    Interesting evolution after Christmas from the ECMWF weekly charts just out. Trough lumbers from the Plains into the Southeast. Will that be heavy rain, severe, or both? If severe probably Deep South or Gulf Coast. End of December isn't really our severe climo. FREE for all Friday update: GFS keeps jawboning severe Christmas week, including proper dewpoints Deep South. Jawboning is my other way of conceding it's still fantasyland. We'll see.
  8. nrgjeff
    Plateau and Mountains could have a fun 7-10 day period. GFS finally came around to King Euro with actual systems instead of weak fronts. No cold air connection and warm boundary layer keeps most of the forum out of the game. Rain and 38 is good college sports on TV weather, lol! Looking ahead, I'll just assume the EC weeklies will trend colder after Christmas like the CFS has. On the other hand the GEFS weekly product (separate from the CFS) keeps it warm. Anyway the CFS after Christmas forecast is colder than normal. We'll see if the blocking can overwhelm the on-fire MJO signal. My sentiment has shifted to mixed, from bearish, but I'm still not really feeling big cold.
  9. nrgjeff
    Another chance tonight. Note it's around 10% and only on the horizon from a very high viewing point. Looks like the pre-dawn kind of busted. Twitter is gnashing of teeth now. Canadian border got it, but the main CME is arriving later than first forecast. Arrival is now forecast during the late afternoon today. Could linger into early evening. So, get out in time for first total darkness. Comet NEOWISE style. Oh yeah, up on Clingman's Dome would be great to have a 10% chance of seeing anything. I doubt anything is visible from most of our forum area.
  10. nrgjeff
    Agree the next 2-4 weeks will have cold fronts and wx systems. Weeklies show a trough in the GoA but significant Greenland ridging. That's not stable SER material, though I agree the volatility probably averages out mild. Weeks 5-6 lose the blocking; and, go with a more stable SER situation. However weeks 5-6 are subject are subject to dispute.
  11. nrgjeff

    ENSO

    nrgjeff replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    I approve that message. Since winter is going to the dogs, might as well look to spring.
  12. nrgjeff
    Yes! We love our West Tennessee members too. I'm still recovering from the KC Chiefs ugly win last night. Well a W is a W, lol! Finally, listened to Tennessee Christmas by Amy Grant. Wishing for snow that does not happen. Intelligent song writing. Very accurate in Chattanooga.
  13. nrgjeff
    I see the PV bending but not breaking. Then it tightens up again in an act of defiance. Pretty dismal forecast tbh. When's the next chance of severe weather?
  14. nrgjeff
    Monday morning a little wave digs in for the Upper Plateau and perhaps northeast Tenn. Only relevant at elevation. It's post-frontal so Sunday night clouds are not a huge factor. Still the boundary layer will be too warm in the Valley Monday. Curious to see if anyone documents anything Monday. Unfortunately I have nothing positive to say about days 3-15. I'll go with, if I don't have anything nice to say I won't say anything at all. Good luck Monday!
  15. nrgjeff
    European monthlies and CFS monthlies just out are both disasters for snow enthusiasts. Tie it in with the latest discussion in our ENSO thread; and, it looks like a mild winter which will require some luck. What's new in the South? I still think the +ABNA phase will offer chances (normal to BN heights SE with above normal heights parts of Canada). Key will be some help from the PNA, NAO or other blocking. Overall though it now looks like cold shots will be brief. I know this is a sentiment shift from my last post in the main December thread. Also tied in with our ENSO thread, severe wx in late winter and early spring looks at least normal with a good chance of greater than normal activity. EC monthlies have Plains season (LOL 5-6 month forecast verbatim) quieter than normal; CFS is normal. So I guess chase early season garbage in case there's no late season. Why am I writing about chasing already? Oh yeah the winter monthlies and SSTs.
  16. nrgjeff
    First, I always approve of severe wx jawboning messages, lol. ECMWF weeklies do warm up the back half of December. MJO over the Maritime Continent is southwest flow aloft if a shortwave and airmass can come together. Still a few weeks off so I've nothing to add there. Speaking of the MJO it is weak. However I always prefer it in cold phases than warm, no matter the strength. While the plot is Maritime Continent, the West Pac tries to flare up too. Explains how we're getting this couple weeks of cool volatility instead of blast furnace. Looking way ahead in years with La Nina atmospheric response and -GLAMM which is all forecast the next few weeks, the warm back half of December does not necessarily have to last. Some of those years with a cold start to December, and warm finish, went on to get cold again in January. About half the years went cold January. Now, if this late December warm busts, and it just stays cold, that's not bad either. Talking snow perspective here. My gut says this winter will be more interesting than that last few, with more bouts of snow. Confidence is increasing in the La Nina with -GLAMM response. That's variable vs locked in SER, but we will have warm days. Should get occasional cold air delivery. Cheers!
  17. nrgjeff
    Fun! Anybody flying into Knoxville today?
  18. nrgjeff
    Took last week off and totally checked out. I'm so far behind in this thread that it's hopeless. However I guess that's a good thing if the pattern is worth discussing. ECMWF weeklies followed the CFS with now a third cold week, counting this week, week 2 and week 3. Now we are in -ABNA with some +PNA which is cold. MJO is in a decent phase. While we have a week TC attempt near Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean, the vast majority of convection is in colder phases of the West Pac.
  19. nrgjeff
    Awesome pictures this page! My November 30 ob is not worthy of the thread. At 3:55 pm Eastern snow flurries reached East Brainerd, Chattannoga, Tenn. So light it looks less like snow, and more like the Upside Down from Stranger Things.
  20. nrgjeff
    Euro ensembles came around last night. Majority of members have a closed low in the 11-15 day. Weenie mode activated! ! 11-15 day forecasts are disputed and often change. Prepare for disappointment!
  21. nrgjeff
    Well hello there ECMWF weeklies! And I see you CFS weeklies. Can they be right? Well if the MJO actually progresses, it would be supportive going into cooler phases (Southeast US). Multi-month +ABNA background is slightly below normal heights here, but AN everything Canada. A cooler version of that (progged normal heights Great Lakes) would verify cold down here. Both weekly products have that colder look weeks 3-4. AN precip East Coast with BN precip Mid South is not a bad look. Remember snow carries lower liquid content. That AN precip can stay southeast of here as rain. No promises. It just feels nice to write about something other than blowtorch or covid. BONUS: CFS weekly snow charts get the Mid South week 3 or 4 depending on which presentation. PATTERN recognition is good for the higher elevations too (Mountains, Plateau). Then Christmas severe verbatim. ! week 5-6 forecasts are disputed.
  22. nrgjeff
    IIRC my first winter here, November was mild until it got cold after Thanksgiving, and culminated with a good January snow. Oh yeah White Christmas too 2010 before that January 2011 snow. Past performance will not help future results, lol! Oh crap April 2011. Nope! Even me the severe wx enthusiast. Nope! OK getting serious, since this is the true December thread, I figure it'll take a few cold fronts to set the table for anything after mid-December. Except for at elevation, I doubt much happens through first third of December.
  23. nrgjeff
    Eric Webb tees up 38 and rain for Chattanooga! Friday was our kid's last day in class. We pulled to online learning between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Data is pretty clear. Pattern recognition for the forecast is also. I'm mainly talking about the Chattanooga forecast, lol!
  24. nrgjeff
    Ensembles all followed cooler overnight. Euro, GFS, Canadian. I don't look at the teleconnections weekends. More on Monday. Fingers crossed!
  25. nrgjeff
    I agree the window for cold (rain Chattanooga) will be brief. Looking after Thanksgiving. The pre-Thanksgiving system should be warm. I'm not buying severe though. Post-Thanksgiving system is cooler but lacks a cold air connection. Maybe the higher elevations. By then I'll be focused on college basketball. Finally! Looking into early December I see nothing interesting. Even if it's not as warm as shown, the +ABNA won't quit.
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