Eduardo

At first glance, I thought you had mistakenly copied and pasted the October 2020 map for the "snowier outcome" composite (which is a good thing!). Your accounting for Niño-like and Niña-like background states is sensible, but it leads me to wonder how much the usefulness of ENSO itself as a predictor might be breaking down (or at least shifting). Solid post, as always!

I was thinking the same thing this morning. Fellow coasties lamenting the fact that they're about to see a 6"+ snowstorm in mid December is baffling to me. Everybody in the tri-state will easily surpass @bluewave's magic 3" December snowfall total tonight and tomorrow and it looks like the month will finish with a solid -AO. That's all cause for celebration in my book, especially given how dismal things looked a few weeks back.

Great stuff, as always Chris. IIRC, some of those years managed to sneak in a colder Xmas. 2013 comes to mind, for example. Was my first Xmas back up here after three years of law school in DC and it felt nice to experience actual cold again.

Yesterday's 12z NAM kinda nailed this IIRC.

Even see some shades of white on the car tops in Brooklyn. I'll take it!

Minimal improvement on the PAC side can put us in the game as long as the ATL side cooperates. Even a decent WPO can inject some arctic air for the NAO to hold in place. Need to tamp that PAC jet down just a bit though. It's been a killer these past few years.

96-96 and 10-11 come to mind.

Full-on tundra! Not sure I'll see that again in my lifetime here. I took special care to cherish those winters.

As long as the PAC isn't total hot garbage, we can cash in with a decent ATL look (which'd be a welcome return after years of awfulness). That said, those PAC-dominated winters of 13-14 and 14-15 were among my favorites. The only time I've experienced single-digit snow in the tri-state area.

Yikes! That's pretty grotesque. Also kinda puts things in perspective seeing how bleak things looked at this time in 2014 as well though.

Some winters got cranking late. In 2014-2015, I remember we were all doom and gloom until mid January. Different (exceptional) animal, for sure but for the more hopeful among us....

I took special care not to take those winters for granted. I remember somebody posting a map at the time, which showed that the only below-normal anomalies were parked over us. At some point, that had to give. Over the next few decades, we'll get some great blocky winters. But given the warming base state, you have to think that they'll be fewer and further between the mehh's and ratters. Before anything else, we need to do something about that WPAC warm pool that's stalling the MJO in the unfavorable phases. What's it going to take though? Another extreme ENSO event?

I forgot how close last December was to delivering. It's comforting to see a lid on the SE ridge mid-month, although you'd think the Niña would snap it back into place at some point (OTOH, I am still waiting for last year's anticipated Niño atmospheric response...). But a ridge pressing inland from the NATL won't do us much better in the snow department since it'll just push the storm track inland too. Man, the glory years really spoiled us. I still don't think we'll see another shutout year like last year, but these past few years have been a cruel reality check: It's difficult to get solid snows down to the coast!

I see potential there for sure, but we'd need a bit more (i.e., centering that AK low pressure more toward the Aleutians) for us snow lovers to get what we want. As depicted, this is just a non-torchy pattern, not a cold one.

Chris, I take it the inverse does not hold true? For example, last November featured a respectable -AO. After that, IIRC, it bounced around in December for a bit and then shot through the roof.

Yeah that was my first thought when I looked today. Can anyone explain the conservative LF intensity forecasts? I can see the low OHC in the northern gulf inducing some weakening before landfall, but what's stopping ζ from just taking off in the meantime?

Yeah I fully withdraw this statement. She's definitely looking better now that she's exited the YP.

She's all hollowed out. Reminds me a bit of Isidore in 2002.

Ya that's a well-balanced take on the impact of social media, Don. Like any other tool, it can do quite a bit of good if one knows how to use it. A hammer is useful too, but not if you are swinging at nails with the claw. Similarly, with respect to meteorological information on social media, you will find yourself misled unless you have some background knowledge of the subjects with which it bombards you. Decent analogy can be drawn to the current state of our political affairs here, but that's one for a different forum

Much different synoptic setup than our typical blockbusters too. Wasn't PDII essentially just a humongous overrunning event?

To be fair, I haven't read Mr. Cosgrove's forecast in detail. But given the immense lack of below-normal monthly departures in the last few years, to me, forecasting above normal temps with a confidence level less than or equal to 50% seems like a pretty 'safe' way to go, isn't it?

LOL. Poor guy. As much as I vehemently disagree with his politics, can't understand his cold bias, and find his AGW stance flat-out wrong, I like him on a personal level and really do admire his enthusiasm for the weather. Not difficult to see that he's a good guy.