Eduardo

This is cool stuff! My gut tells me the notion that November snow spoils the winter is a myth. But I think there may be something to the idea that the relaxations which follow wintry November's tend to cut into peak climate time as the pattern reloads. Maybe it'd be better to see it broken down by "date of next warning-level event following November snowfall?"

Wouldn't an early strat-warm actually work to our detriment? Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the best time for full-scale strat-warm's is around mid-winter or so in order to "keep the party going." Agreed though: Don't let that PV get too comfortable!

That's a beautiful progression advertised on the EPS. Hoping that we avoid a 2018-esque headfake. 2014-15 was one of my all-time favorite winters! Still a bit early, but I feel a tad more confident that this year turns out better than last year's MJO fail.

That’s an astonishing stat! Amazing how much September has felt like a summer month since 2010.

11/20

On the LIRR heading east through Nassau now. Sky is bright and sunny to the north, but looks eerie and chaotic to the south....

Very very little. Mostly some distant lightning off to the south and a few claps of thunder in SW Suffolk.

Probably too early to speculate, but I am hoping it calms down some before the winter. That raging PAC jet decimated our snow weenie dreams last year....

LOL. We did very well three weeks ago, so I cannot complain. I also think we'll see some action in a few hours. Crossing my fingers that it's halfway interesting. I find that we do better when storms move in from the north than the west, but we'll see. Definitely a good soaking coming regardless.

Deep rolling thunder shaking my house in SW Suffolk. Still not much in the way of rain or wind though.

Was in Islip today for this one shopping and the store lost power and was home in Lindenhurst for the storm yesterday. Best two-day stretch for me in as long as I can remember!

I’m already psyched for it to flip positive just in time to spoil winter for the coast :-P

I remember a terrible, legit backdoor in early June 2015. In fact, I feel like early June backdoors have been common since then. Can anyone confirm?

This is actually the worst spring I can remember here on the south shore of LI. I feel like it’s actually begun to affect my mood. Also, is it just me, or does optimal winter patterns setting in a few months too late seem to be a consistent theme over the past few years? I feel like the NAO tends to wait until springtime to tank.

Yeah I live right along the South Shore in Lindenhurst. Mother Nature is paying us back for the good fortune she bestowed upon us since I moved back here from DC in 2013 (and for a few years preceding that, I take it). I must correct myself though. The 3.1" we saw in November before the changeover is actually slightly less than a majority of my seasonal total. Still.....blehhh...... Honestly, it's that time of year where the sun starts getting higher in the sky and I am ready for some quality bike-riding weather. Don't get me wrong, I'll get hyped about whatever bonus snow comes my way, but I am also excited about spring approaching. This winter's been a huge learning experience for me (and I hope for many others as well). I look forward to taking those lessons into next winter, which will hopefully be a rocking second-year Niño.....one that behaves as such....

Haha can confirm! 6.6 inches total for the season with November’s event constituting a bare majority of it.

Fail here. Raining steadily and the inch of slop we had before is disappearing fast!

Have just under an inch on the grass and car tops here in SW Suffolk with mostly sleet coming down and melting on the pavement. Hopefully, the rates pick up so that we can appreciably accumulate!

Switched to slushy white rain about 15 mins after I posted!

Pouring rain in SW Suffolk. Still awaiting a changeover (that hopefully materializes soon)!

2.5” in Lindenhurst. Went to sleep ar 4AM with it raining so I thought for sure we were getting skunked. Was a nice surprise to see everything covered! Now 5.7” on the season.

Still pouring rain here in SW Suffolk. Thinking my 4.2” seasonal total will remain steady for tonight....

Still just a plain, chilly rain here in Lindenhurst (SW Suffolk).

Yeah I’ve noticed this too. In 13-14 and 14-15, models consistently broke down the glorious -EPO, but on she raged....two of my favorite winters since they were good for retention snobs like me. I don’t know enough about computer modeling to understand what causes this. I’m guessing they must have some level of “continuity bias” built in, no?