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Eduardo

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Everything posted by Eduardo

  1. Eduardo
    Chris, I take it the inverse does not hold true? For example, last November featured a respectable -AO. After that, IIRC, it bounced around in December for a bit and then shot through the roof.
  2. Eduardo
    Ah that seems so long ago now. Can always hope for some of the good fortune we had in December 2017, although it really does not look good right now.
  3. Eduardo
    Would be great to slow down the firehose. It's definitely killed the last few winters at the coast.
  4. Eduardo
    Easily gusting over 50mph in Brooklyn Heights.
  5. Eduardo
    Gusty here in Brooklyn Heights too. Easily in the 45–50mph range!
  6. Eduardo
    That's nuts! You have to wonder what it looks like once it's rolled forward (with shortening wavelengths, etc.). Thanks for finding these! I hate tossing '95 out there because it stirs up weenieism. I didn't realize that '95 had such low heights in the GOA and up top. NE PAC warm blob was sorta there though.
  7. Eduardo
    For comparison, does anybody have a 500mb composite for October 1995? And maybe a global SST map? Just curious since that also was an active hurricane season + Niña autumn following a Niño, correct?
  8. Eduardo
    ::Scratches head:: This year's Sept./Oct. composite actually seems directly opposite to how Niña's typically behave in Canada and the NATL too. Do we know why? And are we going to wait around all winter for a Niña atmospheric "coupling" (hope I'm using the term correctly) like we did last year with the Niño?
  9. Eduardo
    Yeah that was my first thought when I looked today. Can anyone explain the conservative LF intensity forecasts? I can see the low OHC in the northern gulf inducing some weakening before landfall, but what's stopping ζ from just taking off in the meantime?
  10. Eduardo
    Yeah I fully withdraw this statement. She's definitely looking better now that she's exited the YP.
  11. Eduardo
    She's all hollowed out. Reminds me a bit of Isidore in 2002.
  12. Eduardo
    Well, save for the "time period" before radar was invented.
  13. Eduardo
    Quite a difference in the IOD from this time last year. Hopefully, that bodes well (or at least less bad) for our winter prospects this year.
  14. Eduardo
    Yes we learned this hard lesson last year. Is there any evidence that the converse produces a better result for us (i.e., a tendency for the MJO to hang around in the colder phases)?
  15. Eduardo
    Are either of you able or willing to speculate what significance (if any) an opposite IOD state at this time might hold for this coming fall and winter?
  16. Eduardo
    Where did it stand at this time last year? Trying to figure out if it’s going to toss a wrench into our upcoming winter’s pattern like it did last year.
  17. Eduardo
    Take it back. Just had the loudest clap of thunder this summer!
  18. Eduardo
    Was going to say the same thing. I’m in Lindenhurst and it’s a very still storm. Tons of lightning but minimal thunder too.
  19. Eduardo
    Given the trend the past few years, it’s tough to bet against sneaking in a few 90+ days in Sept/Oct.
  20. Eduardo
    Or the Hazel-type scenario (assuming you’re not talking about a purely-tropical cyclone and you’re focusing strictly on winds). I know that the winds here were intense with that one, but did she have a dry eastern side as well?
  21. Eduardo
    Mehhh. 8-minute downpour. But some decent, ongoing CTG anvil lightning. Oddly, not much thunder though.
  22. Eduardo
    Should that pattern remain stable during the heart of hurricane season.....
  23. Eduardo
    Just had a pretty mean gust here. Easily TS force!
  24. Eduardo
    So far, I’d say “ample.”
  25. Eduardo
    This band rotating onto the south shore of LI now might bring down some decent winds.
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