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Eduardo

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Everything posted by Eduardo

  1. Eduardo
    Let’s make a thread to debate whether and when to start threads!
  2. Eduardo
    I mean, the heart of the negative anomalies is centered over the Aleutians rather than, say, Fairbanks. So it could be worse. We definitely won't get Vodka-cold air in that pattern but, in mid and late January, it can be a glorious one in terms of snowfall. Overall, I'll take it!
  3. Eduardo
    Both the January 2013 storm and Nuri in 2014 helped establish some pretty incredible -EPO regimes, if memory serves. EPO-driven patterns can really drop the cold hammer on us. The 13/14 and 14/15 winters were two of the greatest "deep winters" of my lifetime. I wouldn't mind a reliving them one bit!
  4. Eduardo
    This times 10! If that upcoming block is real, even slight PAC improvement will put us in business! Need to tamp down that raging +EPO though. Hopefully that crazy sub-920mb NPAC storm on the EURO comes to pass and scrambles up the PAC side a bit. There's decent potential in this pattern. Nothing like the doom and gloom of last year.
  5. Eduardo
    I'm cautiously optimistic. The December snowstorm showed us that, with slight PAC improvements, our unfamiliarly less-than-craptastic ATL setup can get snow down to the coast. As we approach peak climo in mid and late January, we won't need true arctic air to get the job done (although it'd be great to get some high-ratio stuff here). All we would need to be back in business is to pinch off the flow of pure PAC puke into Canada a bit. Back that GOA vortex westward some and we can have some fun! The potential SSW-induced PV split is the wildcard and, as we've seen before, they don't always reshuffle things in our favor. Personally, given how the overall pattern already contains more potential than we've seen in a few years, I don't think it's worth rolling the dice.
  6. Eduardo
    I mean it can work if we have a rockin ATL side, right? I realize it was one-of-a-kind, but didn’t 95-96 have a less-than-ideal PAC?
  7. Eduardo
    Drove down to the docks in Lindenhurst and the waves were crashing over it. Probably gusting close to 60 now.
  8. Eduardo
    Loud clap of thunder in Brentwood (LI).
  9. Eduardo
    Would be happy to keep company like this. The race for -5SD is on!
  10. Eduardo
    I don't know if I'd go that far. Certainly, blocking can overwhelm ENSO's influence and, in that respect, might be a greater determinant of sensible weather here (especially in the last few years of atmospheric coupling weirdness). But that all doesn't mean there's "no such thing as 'el nino' or 'la nina' patterns[.]"
  11. Eduardo
    I measured 10" at the Brooklyn Heights promenade. Awesome December event and I hope it bodes well for us this winter!
  12. Eduardo
    Meant to type *December* warning-criteria snows. My (big) mistake ;-)
  13. Eduardo
    Still snowing in Brooklyn Heights. Yeah it could have been more, but warning-criteria snows have been few and far between over the past decade and this is more than I saw all winter last year, so I’m grateful for it. Hopefully there’s more to come!
  14. Eduardo
    Can confirm, neighbor. Wow!
  15. Eduardo
    And jump...very high!
  16. Eduardo
  17. Eduardo
    At first glance, I thought you had mistakenly copied and pasted the October 2020 map for the "snowier outcome" composite (which is a good thing!). Your accounting for Niño-like and Niña-like background states is sensible, but it leads me to wonder how much the usefulness of ENSO itself as a predictor might be breaking down (or at least shifting). Solid post, as always!
  18. Eduardo
    I was thinking the same thing this morning. Fellow coasties lamenting the fact that they're about to see a 6"+ snowstorm in mid December is baffling to me. Everybody in the tri-state will easily surpass @bluewave's magic 3" December snowfall total tonight and tomorrow and it looks like the month will finish with a solid -AO. That's all cause for celebration in my book, especially given how dismal things looked a few weeks back.
  19. Eduardo
    Lived there from 2010 to 2013. I can recall seeing snow three times the entire time and the highest total was 2 inches. Watching January 2011’s extravaganza from down there was sheer torture. We really have been spoiled up here the past decade. I’ll gladly take 6-10” here in the city. I’d welcome the icy glacier that’ll preserve the pack too!
  20. Eduardo
    I think it's all about the 50/50 low, right? If that slips east, then the high (no matter how robust) will follow.
  21. Eduardo
    Reminds me a bit of December 2009.
  22. Eduardo
    Great stuff, as always Chris. IIRC, some of those years managed to sneak in a colder Xmas. 2013 comes to mind, for example. Was my first Xmas back up here after three years of law school in DC and it felt nice to experience actual cold again.
  23. Eduardo
    GFS's evolution reminds me a bit of Dec. 2009. Didn't we get some eleventh-hour PNA love to make that one happen too?
  24. Eduardo
    Yesterday's 12z NAM kinda nailed this IIRC.
  25. Eduardo
    Even see some shades of white on the car tops in Brooklyn. I'll take it!
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