Eduardo

Screen name doesn’t check out ;-)

I'm not quite there yet. Still too early. If things look like shiz in a month, then yes for sure.

I never really thought about it that way, but that's spot on. I only root for PV splits as Hail Mary's when all other hope seems lost.

IIRC, a ton of people took the cliff jump in early Jan. 2015. They found themselves climbing back up a few short weeks later. These patterns really do flip on a dime sometimes. That's why I generally don't put too much stock in LR guidance, especially when it's as fickle as it's been over these past few years.

Funny you posted this. I actually just took a look at this data the other day (for my location, of course) and was pleasantly surprised by it. I'd gladly sacrifice the first half of December for a wintry Xmas period.

This X 1000! Two of the best winters of my lifetime. I hope we see that again soon!

Yeah the lack of run-to-run consistency has been problematic over the past few years (mostly because of the PAC firehose). This is admittedly somewhat of a crapshoot, but overall, I'd say the balance of factors favors a winter somewhat similar to last year's. It'll have some boring periods and probably not much biting cold thanks to a less-than-ideal PAC, but when we get ATL help, we'll score some decent snowfall events. We could always get lucky and have the Niña concentrate more too the east, have the stars allign on the ATL side like in "95–'96, or get some perfectly-timed and positioned SSW, but those are just wild cards. Last year was serviceable (at least here in NYC). I'd take that again and be happy.

C'mon with the trolling man. Did you even read the remainder of the thread?

Stuck patterns have been the norm the past few years too. Stuck model forecasting…not so much :-P. So let’s see if we can get some run-to-run consistency on this. Coincidentally, Vet’s Day 1995 featured a high-wind event. So too did 11/13/21….

Nice post, Chris! Get this look inside of 5 days and we just might have something to be excited about!

We all understand your point of view and, to be sure, there're plenty of factors that weigh in favor of below-normal snowfall this winter. But don't you agree that such an anomalous blocking episode in late Nov./early Dec. increases the probability that we see further such episodes and, in turn, overcome those factors? Also, not for nothing, but even though Anthony is a (proud) snow-weenie, I feel like you're the only one on here who regularly references JB. It doesn't do your arguments any favors.

^^This^^ Also explains the string of warm winters coupled with blockbuster snowstorms that we've seen since 2015. I wonder if the super-Niño had anything to do with shuffling things up. It was such a huge phenomenon that you'd think there'd have to be some connection.

Yeah if it still looks that ugly in two or three weeks, then it might be time to close the shades for a bit. As of now, I’m not too concerned though. When all else fails, zoom out and think back. Last November, we were roasting and fearing a snowless winter, but it actually turned out to be a pretty decent one for snow lovers.

I mean, at least the PV looks slightly elongated there. I’ve seen way worse.

Chris, what are some examples? IIRC, wasn't '96 pretty much ATL-driven? I don't think that's a good analog this year, but it shows that a favorable Atlantic can overcome a craptastic PAC.

Plenty of solid years in that bunch and this is yet another factor that leads me to believe this won't be a total shutout. Niña's scare me, but we'll avoid a ratter so long as the Niña remains tempered and we manage to get some blocky periods.

True, but for pack-retention snobs like me, 13–14 and 14–15 were incredible. The locked-in cold kept snow on the ground for a long time. Would take a massive -EPO-driven winter again in a heartbeat, even if it didn't feature blockbuster storms.

Had a few gusts that were probably in the 45–50mph on Roosevelt Island with some thunder and lightning. Easily tops the last storm!

I’d prefer less humidity. Be nice to open up the windows at night without the clamminess.

Bookends winter isn't a bad rough call right now. Niña/stratwarm favors some early action, then we mild up before catching some more action in March when the wavelengths shorten. Still so many variables in the mix though and, as we all know, it ultimately boils down to blocking.

Ah okay, so it's basically academic....

Has Larry moved south of due west?

That lightning strike was intense!

Mayhem about to ensue in NYC. Looks like this is gonna come in like a wall. I live on Roosevelt Island 11 floors up facing west and it looks mighty dark to the west of Manhattan!

Insane rain here in Brooklyn Heights. Just got back from Bermuda and the air outside here has the same tropical feel to it.