Eduardo

Are either of you able or willing to speculate what significance (if any) an opposite IOD state at this time might hold for this coming fall and winter?

Where did it stand at this time last year? Trying to figure out if it’s going to toss a wrench into our upcoming winter’s pattern like it did last year.

Take it back. Just had the loudest clap of thunder this summer!

Was going to say the same thing. I’m in Lindenhurst and it’s a very still storm. Tons of lightning but minimal thunder too.

Given the trend the past few years, it’s tough to bet against sneaking in a few 90+ days in Sept/Oct.

Or the Hazel-type scenario (assuming you’re not talking about a purely-tropical cyclone and you’re focusing strictly on winds). I know that the winds here were intense with that one, but did she have a dry eastern side as well?

Mehhh. 8-minute downpour. But some decent, ongoing CTG anvil lightning. Oddly, not much thunder though.

Should that pattern remain stable during the heart of hurricane season.....

Just had a pretty mean gust here. Easily TS force!

So far, I’d say “ample.”

This band rotating onto the south shore of LI now might bring down some decent winds.

I think the winds in firehouse *to the east of the center might pack somewhat of a punch....I'm expecting it to come in waves. As is usual with tropical systems up here though, the heaviest rains are on the western side.

Top-notch beach weekend. Water temps also quite warm for this time of year!

Agree! Unlike the earlier storm, this one held together nicely as it came across the island. Vivid lightning and gusty downpour. Overall, a solid a respectable storm here!

Yeah they certainly petered out as they stumbled their way southward though. Here in Lindenhurst, the sky darkened, but we got nothing aside from a 2-min bout of drizzle. Sun's back out now.

Yeah wow. Sun came out for about half an hour here in Lindenhurst and now, out of nowhere, have heavier rain than before!

Sky looked ominous, but just a breezy downpour here in Lindenhurst.

For the past few years, it seems like our preferred weather patterns are “fast-forwarded” by a few months, delaying springs and summers on the front end, but extending them on the back end. What explains it?

Failed here in Lindenhurst. Saw it breaking up overhead. Boooooo!

One thing I have learned over the past few years: Broadly speaking, Pacific patterns have staying power in this climate regime and LR models often break them down too quickly. In 2013-14 and 2014-15, I distinctly recall models breaking down those glorious -EPO patterns only to see it pushed back over and over again--which of course redounded to our benefit. 2018-19 and 2019-20 was the flip side of the same phenomenon and we saw raging +EPO patterns remain robust in spite of LR models constantly forecasting their reversal. In future winters, we should keep this in mind as we try to sift out the head fakes.

Yeah I am in Lindenhurst and this does happen from time to time. 6.4” on the year so far.

I second this. Just drove home to LI from a ski trip up at Mountain Creek in Vernon, NJ where so many of the drivers seem to suffer from delusions of invincibility. Had a car pass me in excess of the speed limit on a snow-covered secondary road. About a mile ahead, we saw that he had gone off the road into a tree. Several spin outs on I-80 too. Not the night to be in a rush folks. Not worth the risk!

Last year, I finished with a single-digit snow total. Today is the first time I fear that may repeat itself. Looking pretty ugly moving forward.

Really a matter of perspective. Most of us don’t care about an almost-certain positive monthly departure so long as we are looking ahead to a pattern that can produce. Looks like a very niño-ish progression here. We should start rocking soon (finally)!

Hobbyist question here: When you say that this pool of high-octane fuel will "enhance" the MJO in its unfavorable phases, do you mean to say that it will: (1) become more amplified as it passes through those phases; (2) spend a greater-than-usual time in those phases; or (3) both?