Eduardo

Squinting hard through my rose-colored glasses here, but the one thing we have on our side is that we actually have cold air on our side of the globe. Were we staring at this map with the PV trapped over in Siberia, I might be ready to waive the white flag, esp with the Pacific SSTs favoring the MJO looping in its unfavorable phases.... But the (relatively) nearby cold at least keeps alive the possibility that some elusive ATL help can rescue us at some point.

Forgive me if I am mis-remembering, but didn't the January 2016 storm benefit from a "bootleg block" that originated up in the Scandi/Kara region? Like most, I am squinting hard to see some light at the end of the tunnel. The optimist in me feels good that we at least have the cold on our side of the pole. Were the PV locked up over Siberia right now, I think I'd have the towel in-hand...even up here. Great analysis in here, as always!

Hugging that Scandinavia ridge showing up on the 288hr op GFS. Pretty much all I’ve got given the doom and gloom on here today.

This!! So much this! I’m as anxious as anybody to get some meaningful winter weather in here, but LR modeling isn’t worth chewing on until we are inside ten days (at least)!!

How does this evolution compare with that of 2013-14? IIRC, we flipped cold right around New Years, (at least up here) cashed in with a storm right in the beginning of January, and remained in the freezer for at least a month and a half.

Pre-Xmas storm has my interest more than anything right now, but my worry is that we tearfully watch it bomb out over the Flemish Cap. If we somehow can toss some sand in the gears of that PAC jet, things could get interesting. We deserve it after enduring last year’s garbage pattern. Got my fingers crossed!

Decent trends today, but might a cutter next week tug that TPV toward the 50/50 position which, combined with the modeled west-based -NAO, might set the table for a more interesting Xmas week? Not looking to be invidious, but what do we think of the "sacrificial lamb" perspective?

Winding down in SW Suffolk. Roads are wet with slushy patches, but I measured 2.2" on the grass. Brings me to 4.4" on the season so far. Not too bad after last year's shutout. Here's to keeping it going and hoping the leadup to Xmas has some fun in store for us!

Felicitous choice of analogy! Posts like these are why I love these boards. Excellent convo all-around today. Thanks!!

From a hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns. Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so. (1) Is there something to this anecdote? (2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this? (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

Maybe my memory is failing me, but I remember it being bitter cold with long-lasting snowpack after December. Wasn't that the winter where we had an all-snow event with single-digit temps?

How does December 2013 compare? IIRC, we had a relatively cold month and managed one -EPO/+NAO-driven SWFE mid-month or so. After that, we really got underway with several "thread-the-needle" events a few days after New Years. 2013-14 was one of my favorite winters, but I am wondering whether we would be playing with fire taking our chances with that pattern again.

Great points here! Have the GEFS/GEPS also performed better on the MJO front, in fact? If so, then that's probably the best explanation for their better verification up-top.

Sounds like last year. Closed the shades after the first weekend of December and never opened them back up. Hoping we don’t endure the same MJO madness this year. Broadly-speaking, seems like we are planting a fork in the road—one way leads toward a 2013-14-type our once and the other takes us toward 2018-19’s lair of doom. Is that somewhat accurate?

Chris, what are our chances of becoming mired in the unfavorable MJO phases again this year given current SST configuration? Trends today look a tad less hopeless. IIRC, history shows that +AO December's tend not only to be less favorable for cold and snow, but they also tend to presage below normal snowfall for the entire winter...which makes sense since prolonged PAC air into the higher latitudes scours out our source region and erodes precious snowcover up there. We have to hope that the coming AO spike is muted and short-lived. Time will tell. Fingers are crossed!

Trends definitely are not looking good for the cold- and snow-lovers amongst us. The trauma from last year is still raw and, so far, this year bears an uncanny resemblance. Last year, I “closed the shades” after the first few days of December and never opened them back up. If the AO catapults to +4 or +5 in December, that’s going to be a pretty steep climb out of craptasm. At that point, we’d be banking on a SSWE which, as we saw last year, can fail to deliver the goods anyway (TBH, I feel like once the conversation focused on this, it’s often a pretty good indicator that we are toast). Hoping things turn around but, at this point, it’s hard to go against continuity of these repeating patterns.....

Like sandpaper looking at that image. Seems like a "wait-and-see"-type deal right now. I'll become more invested if we see a decent look up top materialize for an appreciable period in December. Usually that bodes well (as it did in 2013-14, for instance). If we are going to battle a SE ridge yet again this year, are we better-armed with a -EPO or a -NAO? IIRC, some SE ridging actually worked to our benefit during those magical -EPO winters of 13-14 and 14-15.....

LR models constantly pushed back the breakdown of that rocking -EPO pattern in 2013-14 just as they constantly pushed back the breakdown of last year’s mess. Hoping this year follows in 13-14’s footsteps and a “deep winter” like that sets in. Keep that icy arctic cold nearby and good things will happen for everyone!

If that is true, then what explains the spate of cold November's in recent years?

Hear hear! For similar reasons, I also "closed the shades" up here in early December last year and never opened them back up. And, like you, I also am disappointed over how much the discourse on here has devolved since the early EasternUsWx days (and before). I am not sure what accounts for it: whether it's part of a broader internet sniping culture, due to lax moderation, or something else. But your thread here bucks those trends magnificently, so I will continue to visit and chime in from time to time--mostly with questions for those of you more well-versed in the minutiae than me. BTW, I lived in DC while I was in law school from August 2010 thru May 2013 and the stars never aligned for a good storm while I was there. Your enthusiasm for this hobby is all the more admirable given the steep climo climb you face each year. With vivid recollection of what that was like, I always root for you all to cash in big!

Agreed here 100%! IIRC, during December 2017, we waited for a warm-up that never ended up materializing and (at least for us a bit further north), that ended up being a harbinger for the decent winter that followed. Contrast that with December 2018, where the writing was pretty much on the wall for what became a dud up here (where I finished with a single-digit seasonal snow total, most of which came from the November storm...ugly!). IMO, if we average a -AO in December, that bodes well for the entire EC generally. The possibility of a true -NAO emerging toward the beginning of December has me viewing the cliff from a respectable distance right now as well. Solid thread you all have here BTW. Hope you all don’t mind me visiting!

How, if at all, will Halong’s recurvature in the WPAC affect the pattern toward the mid and latter part of the month?

I don't mean to carpetbag my way in here and hijack your thread, but can you explain for me what's meant by "Wave 1" and "Wave 2?" I think I have a decent idea of what they mean, but I can probably use a primer. Great stuff in this thread!! :-)

This is cool stuff! My gut tells me the notion that November snow spoils the winter is a myth. But I think there may be something to the idea that the relaxations which follow wintry November's tend to cut into peak climate time as the pattern reloads. Maybe it'd be better to see it broken down by "date of next warning-level event following November snowfall?"

Wouldn't an early strat-warm actually work to our detriment? Correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like the best time for full-scale strat-warm's is around mid-winter or so in order to "keep the party going." Agreed though: Don't let that PV get too comfortable!