Eduardo

I think the winds in firehouse *to the east of the center might pack somewhat of a punch....I'm expecting it to come in waves. As is usual with tropical systems up here though, the heaviest rains are on the western side.

Top-notch beach weekend. Water temps also quite warm for this time of year!

Agree! Unlike the earlier storm, this one held together nicely as it came across the island. Vivid lightning and gusty downpour. Overall, a solid a respectable storm here!

Yeah they certainly petered out as they stumbled their way southward though. Here in Lindenhurst, the sky darkened, but we got nothing aside from a 2-min bout of drizzle. Sun's back out now.

Yeah wow. Sun came out for about half an hour here in Lindenhurst and now, out of nowhere, have heavier rain than before!

Sky looked ominous, but just a breezy downpour here in Lindenhurst.

For the past few years, it seems like our preferred weather patterns are “fast-forwarded” by a few months, delaying springs and summers on the front end, but extending them on the back end. What explains it?

Failed here in Lindenhurst. Saw it breaking up overhead. Boooooo!

Yeah I am in Lindenhurst and this does happen from time to time. 6.4” on the year so far.

Forgive me if I am mis-remembering, but didn't the January 2016 storm benefit from a "bootleg block" that originated up in the Scandi/Kara region? Like most, I am squinting hard to see some light at the end of the tunnel. The optimist in me feels good that we at least have the cold on our side of the pole. Were the PV locked up over Siberia right now, I think I'd have the towel in-hand...even up here. Great analysis in here, as always!

Hugging that Scandinavia ridge showing up on the 288hr op GFS. Pretty much all I’ve got given the doom and gloom on here today.

Ya that's a well-balanced take on the impact of social media, Don. Like any other tool, it can do quite a bit of good if one knows how to use it. A hammer is useful too, but not if you are swinging at nails with the claw. Similarly, with respect to meteorological information on social media, you will find yourself misled unless you have some background knowledge of the subjects with which it bombards you. Decent analogy can be drawn to the current state of our political affairs here, but that's one for a different forum

Much different synoptic setup than our typical blockbusters too. Wasn't PDII essentially just a humongous overrunning event?

To be fair, I haven't read Mr. Cosgrove's forecast in detail. But given the immense lack of below-normal monthly departures in the last few years, to me, forecasting above normal temps with a confidence level less than or equal to 50% seems like a pretty 'safe' way to go, isn't it?

LOL. Poor guy. As much as I vehemently disagree with his politics, can't understand his cold bias, and find his AGW stance flat-out wrong, I like him on a personal level and really do admire his enthusiasm for the weather. Not difficult to see that he's a good guy.