Eduardo

Yeah I can confirm first flakes here in Brooklyn Heights!

Minimal improvement on the PAC side can put us in the game as long as the ATL side cooperates. Even a decent WPO can inject some arctic air for the NAO to hold in place. Need to tamp that PAC jet down just a bit though. It's been a killer these past few years.

96-96 and 10-11 come to mind.

Full-on tundra! Not sure I'll see that again in my lifetime here. I took special care to cherish those winters.

As long as the PAC isn't total hot garbage, we can cash in with a decent ATL look (which'd be a welcome return after years of awfulness). That said, those PAC-dominated winters of 13-14 and 14-15 were among my favorites. The only time I've experienced single-digit snow in the tri-state area.

Yikes! That's pretty grotesque. Also kinda puts things in perspective seeing how bleak things looked at this time in 2014 as well though.

Some winters got cranking late. In 2014-2015, I remember we were all doom and gloom until mid January. Different (exceptional) animal, for sure but for the more hopeful among us....

I took special care not to take those winters for granted. I remember somebody posting a map at the time, which showed that the only below-normal anomalies were parked over us. At some point, that had to give. Over the next few decades, we'll get some great blocky winters. But given the warming base state, you have to think that they'll be fewer and further between the mehh's and ratters. Before anything else, we need to do something about that WPAC warm pool that's stalling the MJO in the unfavorable phases. What's it going to take though? Another extreme ENSO event?

Oh no I didn't take it that way either! I was only wondering if my fellow Lindy native had any insight as to why we always did well with winds. Sorry if that came across the wrong way.

I grew up in Lindenhurst and can confirm that, for some odd reason, we always seemed to perform well when it came to winds. No idea why though (guessing it's something geographical).

I forgot how close last December was to delivering. It's comforting to see a lid on the SE ridge mid-month, although you'd think the Niña would snap it back into place at some point (OTOH, I am still waiting for last year's anticipated Niño atmospheric response...). But a ridge pressing inland from the NATL won't do us much better in the snow department since it'll just push the storm track inland too. Man, the glory years really spoiled us. I still don't think we'll see another shutout year like last year, but these past few years have been a cruel reality check: It's difficult to get solid snows down to the coast!

Don't get me wrong, I'll take this all over the doom and gloom we thought awaited us last week. But the way I see it, as depicted, we would basically just be suppressing the torch for a time and could expect a snap-back at some point unless we can nudge some ATL or PAC ridging poleward a bit. I think the current look could work for us coasties yearning for snow later on in December, but I'm not sure it'll get the job done in its first week. If this is the best pattern we are going to get, I think we'd be better off if it was delayed by a few weeks. Hoping for some December 2017 fortune here! My gut tells me that we don't get completely shut out this winter.

I see potential there for sure, but we'd need a bit more (i.e., centering that AK low pressure more toward the Aleutians) for us snow lovers to get what we want. As depicted, this is just a non-torchy pattern, not a cold one.

Chris, I take it the inverse does not hold true? For example, last November featured a respectable -AO. After that, IIRC, it bounced around in December for a bit and then shot through the roof.

Ah that seems so long ago now. Can always hope for some of the good fortune we had in December 2017, although it really does not look good right now.

Would be great to slow down the firehose. It's definitely killed the last few winters at the coast.

Easily gusting over 50mph in Brooklyn Heights.

Gusty here in Brooklyn Heights too. Easily in the 45–50mph range!

That's nuts! You have to wonder what it looks like once it's rolled forward (with shortening wavelengths, etc.). Thanks for finding these! I hate tossing '95 out there because it stirs up weenieism. I didn't realize that '95 had such low heights in the GOA and up top. NE PAC warm blob was sorta there though.

For comparison, does anybody have a 500mb composite for October 1995? And maybe a global SST map? Just curious since that also was an active hurricane season + Niña autumn following a Niño, correct?

::Scratches head:: This year's Sept./Oct. composite actually seems directly opposite to how Niña's typically behave in Canada and the NATL too. Do we know why? And are we going to wait around all winter for a Niña atmospheric "coupling" (hope I'm using the term correctly) like we did last year with the Niño?

Yeah that was my first thought when I looked today. Can anyone explain the conservative LF intensity forecasts? I can see the low OHC in the northern gulf inducing some weakening before landfall, but what's stopping ζ from just taking off in the meantime?

Yeah I fully withdraw this statement. She's definitely looking better now that she's exited the YP.

She's all hollowed out. Reminds me a bit of Isidore in 2002.

Well, save for the "time period" before radar was invented.