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Eduardo

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Everything posted by Eduardo

  1. Eduardo
    Honestly, this is right where we want things on each of these models at this timeframe.
  2. Eduardo
    Was just thinking the same thing!!
  3. Eduardo
    Yeah by quite a bit, right? Good trends today all around, as I see it!
  4. Eduardo
    Who are you and what have you done with snowman19?
  5. Eduardo
    I didn't think it was possible until DC went through Snowmageddon in 09-10. If they are susceptible to a blizzard parade, then so are we! Here's to hoping!
  6. Eduardo
    Moderate snow now in Brooklyn Heights. About 1/2" of new snow on a recently-dusted-off car top outside my window.
  7. Eduardo
    Light snow in Brooklyn Heights. Nice to see winter (hopefully) settling in for a bit!
  8. Eduardo
    I feel for them. They’ll make up for it though. I hope we all get in on the action over the next few weeks!
  9. Eduardo
    I thought for sure that we’d entered a long stretch of awfulness. “Hold the phone!”
  10. Eduardo
    Still have SN + + in Brooklyn Heights. No pingers (yet)!
  11. Eduardo
    Light/moderate snow in Brooklyn Heights with about a half inch so far. Garbage can lid blew down the street!
  12. Eduardo
    Great post! IIRC, it was a slightly more amped PNA that nudged the December 2009 storm far enough north for us to partake. Keep an eye on it!
  13. Eduardo
    Snowing nicely in Brooklyn Heights.
  14. Eduardo
    I think it's because, since the Earth orbits the sun elliptically, the speed of its rotation varies slightly during different times of the year. Thus, not every solar day is exactly 24 hours long. IIRC, solar days are slightly longer during the (Northern Hemisphere's) Winter Solstice and slightly shorter during the Summer Solstice--although I might very well have that backwards. In any event, we still set our clocks based on a 24-hour day (y'know, to keep life orderly) and the difference in time between how we set our clocks and how fast the Earth is actually rotating yields that impression of "asymmetry" you noticed. In short, the asymmetry is created by the discrepancies between solar days and 'clock days.' I hope this is right. Been a loong time since I took Earth Science.
  15. Eduardo
    My (completely unscientific) hunch is that some big ENSO event is necessary to shake up the PAC pattern and throw some sand in the gears of that jet. We’ve been stuck in such a crumby PAC pattern for a few years now while other variables have shifted (NAO, AO, MJO, Strat, etc.). The only thing we haven’t seen since the 15-16 super Niño is another strong/super ENSO episode. Maybe that’s what it’ll take(?)
  16. Eduardo
    I see what you're saying and, ordinarily, I'd agree. But doesn't that WC trough argue for some flexing of the SE ridge, which could in turn push this up further north against the block? I feel like this is a rare set of teleconnections, but that both a north bump and suppression remain equally possible. In short, this is the ultimate thread-the-needle deal. And man oh man. Were it not for the NAO, it'd be torch city around here. Let's hope it hangs tough into February!
  17. Eduardo
    I think he meant that we need another big event like a super Niño to reshuffle the PAC and tame the firehose jet that's killed our last few winters. I tend to agree with that.
  18. Eduardo
    Loud crack of thunder just woke me up in Brooklyn Heights. What season is it?
  19. Eduardo
    I was actually thinking about this the other day too, although that winter was as backloaded as they come. Different ENSO state too, correct?
  20. Eduardo
    Would be better if that west-coast trough were to park itself just a tad offshore. Then, I think we'd be in business.
  21. Eduardo
    We have to account for the longer wavelengths this time of year though, no?
  22. Eduardo
    Looks pretty! Let's get it inside of 7 days!
  23. Eduardo
    Listing all of the post-Dec. 2015 winter month departures like this really drives home how much of an impact the 15–16 super Niño had on our climate. Dec. '17/Jan. '18 stand out (and including March '18 would color this a bit more, I'd think). Still, there's no denying that the super Niño shuffled things up. What caused the cold flip for EPO-driven winters in 13–14 and 14–15? I've heard conflicting arguments about the role of the NE PAC "blob" of warm water. Examining this might provide us with hints of what to look for if we ever want to see cold winters again.
  24. Eduardo
    So far, this winter is a lesson on how a favorable AO, NAO and PNA won't overcome a bonkers +EPO and raging PAC jet. If the EPO is pinching off any supply of arctic air, then nothing else really matters. With that said, if we do manage to relax the +EPO some, then we might have a chance to score. Niña February's tend to be unfriendly to us snow lover's though (save for 2006, of course). After that, we pin our hopes to wavelength-shortening dice-rolls. We really need that PAC jet to calm the eff down if we ever want to see long stretches of winter weather around here again. That thing really has spoiled the past few winters for us.
  25. Eduardo
    Why didn't a La Niña pattern appear in 1996? The SSW continues to be the wildcard, but given how they seldom benefit our side of the globe, my money is on a mild, boring February. I think we will have our chances to cash in big time before then (and hope that I'm wrong about what comes after).
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