Eduardo

Honestly, this has the feel of a year where, after we're all lulled into Spring mode in February, shortening wavelengths yield a freak March snowstorm before Spring actually begins. I agree that it's been a frustrating winter for us snow lovers though.

Really? To me, that's a pretty tight cluster, considering this is 96 hours out. IMO, this is not our storm if, like me, you're in the city or anywhere along the coast. This is for the skiers. But I do think we'll have our chances over the next few weeks!

That almost has a 2013–14 look to it! One of my favorite winters.

Just one run though. They could just be two ships passing in the night. We'll see tonight. This def has my attention though!

Yeah I was living on LI at the time. I remember waking up in the morning, looking outside at the clumpy, wet flakes, and thinking "eeees gon' rain." Heartbreaker of a storm for sure.

The preceding storm is gonna be a key player in this. Need it to get up into that 50/50 spot and create the perfect amount of confluence for us to avoid a washout. We are very much in the game here IMO.

Ah I'm sorry man. Hope you're doing alright!

Can someone comment on whether this has something to do with our sudden burst of cautious optimism?

I can confirm almost 8 inches on Roosevelt Island, which is only a few miles to the southwest, FWIW.

Almost 7 inches on Roosevelt Island!

Snowing on Roosevelt Island. Easily sticking even to the sidewalks!

That's a juicy look, but it's too far out for me to get excited. Ordinarily, I'd also say that the background ENSO state doesn't support it but, as @forkyfork mentioned the other day, last February's snow blitz took place despite a seemingly-unfavorable ENSO state, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.

Wasn't there another storm shortly after that where we were ripping snow with single-digit temperatures. For me, that was peak deep-winter!

Seeing breaks in the cloud deck off to my west (looking out over Manhattan) now. Not a flake. Still sitting at a trace for the season on Roosevelt Island.

IIRC, Feb Niña's tend to be hot garbage, but March sometimes delivers as wavelengths shorten.

I agree with everything in this post. Would be great to see!

02–03 is such an underrated winter for exactly this reason. Not much of a thaw at all—at least nothing prolonged.

I would gladly take my chances with that look versus the one we have right now. I like me some -EPO!

I would love to see 30", but I'm not sure we'll get there this year. I do agree that, assuming the current -PNA-driven pattern holds, the latter part of the season and the shortening wavelengths that it brings might present us with our best opportunities. Stanks that we're already pinning our hopes to that in December though....

Need to shove that east and re-establish "the blob." We're really missing it!

Awwww no way. Anthony's eternal optimism is genuine and I envy it!

Yeah this is kinda where I'm at right now too. Need to see some convincing sign that West-Coast trough is going to either relax or pull westward a bit. I don't think it'd take much to put us in the game, but for the next two weeks, we're not in it. Still wondering whether that cold pool west of Ecuador does us some good before the winter's out. I might be more inclined to say yes if that other cold pool east of the Aleutians weren't so robust. The lesson here is that it's really tough to overcome a crumby PAC.

Me either, although I do wonder how much the typhoon might serve as a fly in the ointment...

Might get deleted. but I couldn't resist. Apologies in advance to the mods. And, @snowman19, it's seriously all outta love; this place wouldn't be the same without you.

Is the typhoon just skewing the index or is it actually affecting the MJO itself (and, hence, the index is reflecting that)?