Eduardo

I mean, lowest snowfall ever is always a low-probability outcome by default. I wouldn’t put money on it. But a true ratter of a winter is really looking likelier by the day.

I fully feel your frustration. I too am a snow weenie at heart. But the LR guidance has consistently corrected towards warmer temps and a storm track through the Great Lakes since November. So, while we all can see some better-looking snapshots on the 15-day and it’s tempting to read significance into them, it’s kind of irrational to believe them right now. That learned skepticism is also what’ll shield us from disappointment later on (and provide a pleasant sense of surprise if things come into alignment for us for a period). I think the best we can do right now is cross our fingers and hope for a lucky event or two before climo starts working against us. After that, we need to look for some kind of catalyst to get us out of this seemingly-never ending Niña with its raging PAC jet/SE ridge pattern. I’m really just too much of a novice to know what that that catalyst might be though. Another major ENSO event? A volcanic event perhaps?

I tend to agree, although a fleeting PNA might give us a window during peak climo where we can score even with stale PAC air.

Ya just in time to make for a *cold, damp spring, right?

Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I don’t think things are that dire yet. Temp-wise, I think we’ll see more cold clusters like 13–14 and 14–15 even as long-term (i.e., 10- and 30-year) averages continue to rise. Snow-wise, it’s more about getting certain atmospheric variables to allign. That’ll happen at some point (likely for a string of winters) even as we continue warming overall. We’ve seen an anomalous number of 40”+ winters since 02–03 even during some of the warmer of those winters (with 09–10 perhaps being the most notable).

This captures things perfectly IMO and I’d add that the screaming PAC jet is what has led to longer-range models being unable to sort things out over these past few years. Our failure to score in December despite a -4.0 AO, I think, really highlights the dominance of this feature. At some point, things will reshuffle and we’ll return to a more snow-lover-friendly background state (albeit amidst an increasingly warmer globe). That could take years, if history is any indication. Until then, we are just going to have to hope for some luck. But hanging on to hope that everything is just going to flip on a dime is just setting yourself up for disappointment at this point.

Fingers always crossed, but it’s tough to get too excited during a Niña as we exit December having recorded only a trace of snow. Even if the Niña weakens, the atmosphere’ll take time to respond. I think I’ll take anything I can get this winter. Hopefully, the late 90s-like string of boring winters ends with this one.

Honestly, 4 inches of snow before Xmas would’ve been fine by me even if we slotted away much more. The continued snow drought (despite some decent blocking lately) is pretty depressing.

Great post (as usual), Chris. Might be a silly question, but how far south do these have to extend before they’re not even classified as “blocking” anymore? (For example, a robust SE ridge isn’t considered “low-latitude blocking, right?)

IIRC, that was the Niño that never coupled (i.e., “behaved like a Niña).

We Grinch!

Yeah but what about Niña’s following Niña’s following Niña’s?

Made my day! Maybe the most bullish storm signal any of us can ask for .

Yes of course, although don’t forget that the greatest snowfall dump of many of our lifetimes (Jan. 2016) came during that “powerful Niño”’you refer to. Feels like we need to hit the reset button on the PAC though. We can luck ourselves into some fun like we did, for example, in December 2020 (and we’ll probably see some action this winter too at some point). But if you’re looking for sustained cold and storms, it’s pretty difficult when the PAC stubbornly refuses to cooperate for years on end.

We’ll see. If that block slingshots over to Siberia, it’s gonna get real boring around here for a bit. I’m def done with these Niña, PAC trash winters. Hopefully we shake things up soon!

Noticed this too as I took a walk down the Roosevelt Island promenade today too. I wondered if there’d be snowflakes outside my 47th floor office window if I were there. Just the chilliest possible rain for us surface dwellers though. Nice day to just be inside under a blanket.

Lol I mean, I could have told you that 4 years ago .

Would a compromise between the two work well for us winter wx lovers though?

The PAC improvement is what I like most here. But I f that ends up being a phantom depiction, then it’s gonna be a struggle to get any fun winter wx down to the coast. Except for a few diamonds in the rough (in my lifetime, 95–96 and 10–11), these Niña winters tend to be mostly suckage (and IIRC, the good ones had decent cold in late Nov/early Dec).

How would another robust El Niño dislodge the semi-perma-Niña trash though if what we have right now followed the 2015–2016 super-Niño though?

One step at a time, but that’s definitely quite bullish.

A few steps ahead, perhaps (compared to me anyways). Knocking the PV on its heels in a manner that yields a prolonged period of blocking would be a huge bonus, in my book. Hoping hard for it but I’m def focused on just getting a period of something other than the terrible PAC puke to which we’ve grown accustomed.

Yeah I’m def not saying we should be thinking about a redux. Just making the broader point (which @brooklynwx99 made much better) that a -PNA can work with a solid ATL-side block.

Lol it’s a funny psychological phenomenon. We’ve become so accustomed to disappointment these past few years that we keep expectations tempered as some sort of defense mechanism. Forky honkage usually portends good things though. :-)

95–96 too IIRC. Enough ATL side blocking can offset a crappy PAC. Here is to hoping!