Eduardo

Good post! Would love to luck our way into something. Worth keeping an eye on.

This is exactly the kind of stuff I come here for. Thanks Chris! Bolded sentences a perfectly-put and cut through a lot of the semantic noise that’s emerged lately.

Is this why they’ve been so unreliable over the past few years? I’ve just been reflexively disregarding them, but until today never really thought about the reason(s) why they weren’t worth trusting.

Tis the true stuff of this hobby we’ve all chosen.

This is how I remember it too. Actually, I remember logging onto this forum on Xmas 2014 and it was total, absolute dejection, hopelessness, and self-pity. Fastest and best turnaround of my life! But one I’m unlikely to see ever again, I think.

Yeah I mean, who could disagree with the proposition that Niños are different than Niñas? And, to be clear, in terms of sensible weather, I am not expecting a carbon copy of last year—if for no other reason than that wall-to-wall shutouts like that are unusual. I am just expecting the MJO and Pacific to be the same flies in the ointment that they’ve been for the last few years now. But I do understand your point that the shift to a Niño this year could sufficiently reshuffle things enough in our favor (at least I think that’s your point—correct me if I have it wrong). I don’t see it playing out the same way, though I definitely hope to be proven wrong.

I think the debate (that’s been hashed and rehashed several times these past few days) is whether and how quickly the MJO rotates through our beloved 8-1-2. Though as a winter-weather lover, I wish I wasn’t, I’m in @bluewave’s camp that the LR models these past two or so years have tended to depict a favorable MJO only to break it down in the short term. @brooklynwx99has offered some good reasons why this year might be different than last (mostly ENSO-based, unless I’m misunderstanding), but so far I’m neither convinced nor excited. Continuity is weighty for me in this age of “stuck patterns.” Unless and until we see some sort of global shift in this Niña-esque setup, I have to assume that things are gonna remain pretty boring.

I think this is true, but only inspires minimal excitement, given how horrendous last winter was. For me, the hope is that the different ENSO state this year makes enough of a difference that blocky periods can deliver us something (unlike last year when all they did was trap the PAC puke over us). I really have low expectations on the whole here though. Until we break this multi-year humdrum pattern, I’ll log anything we get as a bonus.

Yes this! I’ll take a -NAO, esp in December (@bluewave would know better than me, but I think that bodes well for the ensuing months), but like we saw last Dec, it won’t mean much unless we get at least a little bit of PAC love.

Lol yes I completely forgot about the Feb torch that year. Early Jan 2018 storm remains near my all-time top storm list for the snow and wind!

This is true, Chris. 2017-2018 was a cold one, so I dunno if it’d be 8 straight years of cold drought, but your point still stands. I wasn’t around for the 80s, but I remember the late 90s winters being mild and boring as well.

I think that we may be in the middle of such a period again right now. I don’t know what it’s going to take to end it though. Seeing the models already moving the center of next week’s cold to our west is just a continuation of what we have seen the past few years and, unfortunately, doesn’t bode well for us winter weather lovers. Might be another year of “take what we can get.”

Excellent post!! I love it! Maybe I’m just a battered weenie, but I have a hard time believing after these last few winters that the models aren’t just playing tricks on us. They’ve not done too well in that they’ve consistently forecasted cold in the medium and long range that didn’t pan out. Here is to hoping this year is different!

I wouldn’t either. Probably closer to +1 to +3 tops. Not impossible to snow, but a steeper uphill battle for the City and coast. I think so too, although that won’t take much, given how the City came in with record low snowfall last year. In terms of snowfall, I don’t think it’ll be a “carbon copy.” But I have a hard time believing that we break the humdrum hemispheric pattern we’ve seen these past two years. Again, I cannot emphasize enough how thrilled I’d be to be dead wrong on all of this. Been aching for some real wintertime fun for too long now (esp a good ol fashioned holiday season snowstorm).

Just a few examples, I suppose, but it appears this guy: And maybe this guy: But never this guy (and we love him for it) In fairness, typical Niño climo would mean that we’d have to wait for the second half to get anything meaningful anyway. So, whether you think it’s due to continuity from the past few craptastic winters or that we’ve broken that logjam with the current ENSO state, a boring, mild December is the more likely outcome here.

I almost wonder if we need a basin-wide super Niño to meaningfully reshuffle things (December 2017 was great!). So tired of these boring winters. And yes I agree that maybe there is some potential for some fun later on in the winter. But the fact that so many seem willing—with good reason—to punt December kinda tells us where we are (and it’s not a happy place unless you dig seeing all the cold out west).

Lol no. As my post said, based on the multi-year garbage Niña pattern we seem unable to escape. Full disclaimer: I’d be thrilled if I were wrong. But if I were a betting man, I’d be betting on continuity which, right now, doesn’t paint a pretty picture for us cold and snow lovers.

I really hate to say it, but I can totally see this being the theme of the winter again. We seem to be unable to break this pattern these past few winters.

I mean, that looks like a textbook Niño look, where Decembers are usually soupy anyway. Am I missing something?

Yeah but then is it right to PAC puke? Or does is remain sustained? Would pay for another November 2014 at this point

I can’t help but feel a bit dejected at how difficult is has become to sustain below-normal temperatures during our cold season. I’d be thrilled to be wrong, but I have a hunch that, even if it won’t be quite as bad this upcoming winter as it was last winter (how could it be?), we winter weather lovers are gonna be fighting an uphill battle once again.

@LibertyBell I love your contributions here, but the multi-quote feature is a beautiful thing.

I am cool with this and will be encouraged if we see signs of blocking early on!

Wow it had slowed down (relatively-speaking) on Roosevelt Island, but it suddenly went right back to insanity. What an event!

Been thinking the same thing all weekend. Would be absolutely glorious to get a nice, ol fashioned long-duration snow event. Feels like forever since we’ve seen one!