Eduardo

I feel like we have this discussion/debate at least 7 times per year. Personally, I consider anyone who visits the subforum to be part of it, but that's just me.

Yeah I see what you're saying. There's a higher-than-normal chance of legit ZR to the coast with this setup for sure. But, considering climo and the GFS's westward correction with this past weekend's storm, I'm thinking the coast and city'll dodge the bullet this time around. Again, I could end up wrong.

This is a fair point. Still (and I could end up dead wrong), my money wouldn't be on a ZR event in NYC proper. N&W is a different story though.

Same here. Hoping that it doesn't damage the pack too much and that it sets the stage for something more fun Sunday into Monday!

Odds don't favor it, but a bona fide ice storm in the NYC metro would be nuts. I'm thinking that, just as it ticked back westward with this past weekend's storm, the GFS'll do something similar again. If I lived 50 miles north or west of the city, I'd be paying attention. Hopefully the next storm's just snowy!

Yeah I was living out on LI for the ‘94 one, but I don’t recall seeing any footage of ice accretion in NYC. I’d imagine it must be pretty tough to get that in a major urban center like Manhattan. Was it unusually cold at the surface in ‘73?

When’s the last time Manhattan had a legit ice storm?

That March 2018 storm was insane! I was living on LI at the time. 18” of fluff that seemed to come outta nowhere! This was my driveway the next morning. Late-season “fluke” events become much more likely following a SSW. Can’t be ruled out if that’s what we end up seeing.

Ya that'd be seriously problematic....

We can definitely end up on the snowy side of this if that confluence presses a bit more. Would be a nice overrunning event!

Pretty nuts in a Niña winter too. How many of us cold- and snow-lovers were banking on a cold January back in December when the hostile PAC seemed to have us doomed? Post Dec. '15's been a pretty wacky period of extreme patterns and events. Is there anything else like it on record?

FWIW, I live on Roosevelt Island and I measured 8.2” and 10.4” for each of these events, respectively.

Nice respectable MECS here in NYC, but the pics my parents are sending me from their house in Lindenhurst (SW Suffolk) are reminiscent of 2016. What a walloping out on LI!

My old neighborhood. Looks beautiful down there!

Yeah I can verify this. Getting rocked hard on Roosevelt Island too! Heavy snow and wind making for near-whiteout conditions. Much more intense than I expected.

Same on Roosevelt Island. Manhattan skyline is almost obscured! Gorgeous out there!

Be patient. You are going to do really well with this one!

Snowing nicely on Roosevelt Island. The only road we have here is snow-covered. Probably about 1.5” so far.

Well there's some science to it insofar as patterns tend to stay in place for awhile (especially these past few years). In '13–'14 and "14–'15, it was the incredible -EPO, for example. In the past few years, it seems like a progressive pattern combined with a ridge somewhere between the 'SE-ridge zone' and the 'west-based NAO zone.' Roll-of-the-dice pattern to me. Last year, we had some pretty good luck (esp. in February when, IIRC, the ridge pulled up north some, which created some blockiness). This year, it's been pretty mehhhh. As for this one, I think it's a watch-and-see-type deal, but I'd be more excited east of NYC.

Some winters, "it just wants to snow" (e.g., '93–94, '95–'96, '13–'14, '14–'15). I don't think this is one of those winters, so I'll take whatever I can get. 6–10 inches is a respectable storm!

Bump Be honest with yourselves, the model volatility is a big part of the fun and, in a setup like this, nobody knows with confidence how it's all gonna pan out. Enjoy the ride and hope for the best!!

I had this same thought. I used to live out on LI and can remember being in the modeled jackpot zone 48 hours out only to see it end up west of where it was modeled. Not saying it’ll happen this time, but it’s a possibility.

I can’t tell you how sorry I am to hear that. I know that you’ve been around these communities for a long time. You’re in my thoughts, FWIW. Wishing you all the best.

In NYC trying to figure out if it's going to snow on Saturday like:

You know it's getting real when Chris's inner weenie makes an appearance. :-) And yeah I'm def hoping for that combination! Still plenty of time between now and the weekend though.