Powerball

As is common with convection, their mesoscale effects kind of screwed up the whole surface pattern compared to what the models showed as the elevated prefrontal activity from yesterday morning turned into the main show while MS and TN were (relatively) spared.

I know memories aren't always long when it comes to weather, but Newnan was just hit with tornadoes back in October (not even 6 months ago).

Looks like I left Newnan just in time. Reports suggests that, at minimum, a EF4 tornado blew through the middle of town. Substantial structural damage being reported.

I suspect not only will they extend the watch (set to expire in 15 minutes), but likely upgrade it to a Tornado Watch

Well, the Dallas side of the Metroplex has had activity in virtually every which direction surrounding it, but not overhead. Definitely luck of the draw, lol.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the rest of the DFW MEtroplex up to the OK border.

How's the green up progressing there (if at all)?

And it increasingly appears another high risk area may be issued by the SPC for parts of the same areas tomorrow that were hit last week. It's not often you see 2 high risk days in a season, let alone virtually back-to-back in the same areas.

I know it's a different region, but in addition to the already rare high risk area for today, the SPC has issued a 45% tornado risk area for W. Central AL Apparently, the SPC has only issued this 5 other times in its history.

As rough as the week of 2/15 was (being without power for 2 days straight), it's being able to see stuff like below in February that helps to make up for it. Mesoscale Discussion 0135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0959 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Areas affected...northeast Texas through southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281559Z - 281730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity by late morning into the afternoon. Primary threats will be isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts, though a tornado or two will also be possible. A WW will likely be needed before 17Z. DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a cold front extends from eastern OK through north central and west central TX. An isolated thunderstorm with mid-level updraft rotation has developed on the front and is located just east of Gainesville with another isolated storm near Mineral Wells. The downstream warm sector is already moderately unstable with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE supported by upper 60s F dewpoints and 7-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Further destabilization will occur, but will be limited to some degree by widespread multi-layer clouds. Weak, progressive impulses embedded within the southwesterly upper flow regime and forcing along the cold front will contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage later this morning as the boundary layer slowly warms. The primary low-level jet has shifted east of this region resulting in small 0-1 km hodographs. However, a belt of strong southwesterly winds increasing to around 70 kt at 500 mb resides above the warm sector and is contributing to 60+ kt effective bulk shear. Therefore, some storms should organize with supercells and bowing segments likely, eventually consolidating into a dominant linear mode. Large hail and isolated damaging wind will be the main threats. The small low-level hodographs should tend to limit overall tornado threat. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ..Dial/Hart.. 02/28/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 32559772 33599665 34899484 34329358 31909679 31859817 32559772

Thanks.

My understanding of the Kuchera method is that it's a somewhat convoluted calculation of moisture content and lift in the DGZ. This is my first time hearing about the 17:1 ratio thing.

Well, the Kuchera maps have been spot on with the snow down here, FWIW. They even pegged the snow amounts in San Antonio and Austin right.

BTW, I would definitely be salty about missing this storm if the EURO ends up correct, lol.

Well damn!!! When's the last time we saw these areas share a widespread 12-15" snowstorm?

Nice looking SREF plumes for DTW.

GRR has finally said they're *considering* upgrading some of their counties to a WSW, lol.

I struggle to remember the last time we've had a gulf low track travel due NNE to western Pennsylvania with good thermals. It was long overdue.

And lol at DTW forecasting 8" of snow for Detroit in 24 hours with a Winter Weather Advisory and winds of 15-25 MPH. I'm convinced they're trolling. EDIT: Never mind. Their AFD says a WSW is forthcoming.

Looks like the total at DFW was 4", which ends its 6-year 4"+ snowstorm drought. This is also the largest "cold" snowstorm DFW has ever seen, with temps in the teens the entire time. The most impressive part is most of that fell in a 2 hour window. And then there's Wednesday, lol. 06z is very close to worthy with over 1" of QPF.

Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now?

The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW...

If current model indications are accurate, I think this is going to be the largest "spread the wealth" storm we've seen in well over a decade.

I mean, latest model trends suggest Metro Detroit could get warning criteria snow out of this. Or does that not count?

It's not often you see the entire state of OK under a Winter Storm Warning, and the entire states of TX/OK/AR under winter weather headlines.