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SnoSki14

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Everything posted by SnoSki14

  1. SnoSki14
    Storms have had trouble developing until they get closer, very 2005 esque in that regard. Steering pattern will be very favorable for US impacts going into September. I expect models to show more development soon.
  2. SnoSki14
    Ominous setup with northeast ridging for September. Opens the door for tropical systems.
  3. SnoSki14
    The dual storm scenario with this storm in the gulf while another approaches FL is definitely possible. Disturbances like these in the NW Caribbean in late August is worth monitoring. It's def getting it's act together with tighter rotation and widespread popcorn convection developing.
  4. SnoSki14
    I will confidently take the under on that. It would have to be above 98 for that to happen and I don't see anything like that in the forecast.
  5. SnoSki14
    We're already seeing a burst of activity and this is in the lull period. Looks like it'll get even uglier than I thought and that steering is brutal for the US.
  6. SnoSki14
    Steering pattern favorable for US landfalls, particularly ominous for gulf coast states.
  7. SnoSki14
    You're still getting spin-ups despite unfavorable conditions. It's only a matter of time before storms go nuts.
  8. SnoSki14
    Who said it was over, all I said was the worst heat has likely passed. That doesn't mean it can't get really hot again though. And yeah by mid Feb the worst of the cold has likely passed. That doesn't mean you can't get snowstorms though.
  9. SnoSki14
    Not seeing a lot of 90F potential moving forward. Maybe very end of the month and early September?
  10. SnoSki14
    There always seems to be a lull around this time as its a transition point between early & peak activity. Even 2005 had a break in early to mid August. However with a massive MJO wave moving east and shear on the decline there's very likely to be a surge just after the 20th. There's zero evidence of a 2013 repeat. Also just look at the e. Pacific and their current activity, that'll be us in about 10 days or so. Steering currents also favor west tracks vs OTS storms.
  11. SnoSki14
    The tropics will likely flip like a switch. Even now despite unfavorable conditions we're still seeing invests try to spin up. I think we'll get our next storm shortly after the 20th (21-26 most likely). It's possible we get a rogue subtropical or brief MDR storm before then but our first big time storm won't come till late August. We could see simultaneous storms in the 25th through September 15 time frame. A couple of them could be majors. After the 15th there could be another lull but another active period in late September through October is very likely.
  12. SnoSki14
    I wonder how much influence the ENSO state really has in today's rapidly warming world. The Nino was completely decoupled from the pattern we saw last couple winters, wondering if the same will hold true this year. And finally is the era of cold/snowy winters over for good. We're seeing unprecedented warming with top 10 warmest months left and right since the super Nino. I wonder if warm/wet winters will be the future now and we just hope we could get lucky.
  13. SnoSki14
    What a mess a TS did on this area, I'm still drying out my basement. Thankfully the power was only out for 6hrs though half the town is still without it. I don't think we're done either this year but I really hope we don't see another system. They may be exciting in the moment but the aftermath is horrendous, it's def not like a snowstorm.
  14. SnoSki14
    Endless heat. I think we'll set record 90 degree days this year. Also more tropical activity seems inevitable.
  15. SnoSki14
    Nam/GFS are gung-ho with a period of very strong winds in a few hours. Also sting jet after center passes starting to look likely.
  16. SnoSki14
    I think it's looking pretty likely that storm will pass west of NYC. Nam/GFS has it in western NJ. This will put eastern NJ, NYC, LI in the middle of the strongest gusts with a high likelihood of a few spinups. Storm will be moving through at nearly 30mph which will only increase the wind force on the eastern side. I think some 80mph gusts seem probable.
  17. SnoSki14
    Starting to get increasingly concerned this won't just be your run of the mill tropical storm. The combo of that jet and this system is def a concern. We're also seeing the tornado threat play out right now. Imagine if the Ukie & Euro were right with those widespread 70+mph gusts
  18. SnoSki14
    It doesn't look like it's moving that far east to me.
  19. SnoSki14
    I'd be shocked if we didn't see some hurricane force gusts. This storm has been big on winds from the start. The winds on the east side of an accelerating tropical system can be quite powerful.
  20. SnoSki14
    I don't think so, the new NHC advisory discussion was pretty concerning regarding wind gusts. This is a well mixed atmosphere.
  21. SnoSki14
    I'm always skeptical when it comes to tropical systems so I get your point. Whatever happens will be over a short period of time, hopefully this tracks further west so we could see some stronger winds. If this is shooting up 25-30mph there's bound to be some very strong gusts on the eastern side. Tornado threat exists as well. Don't really think this is a rain threat for us so I'm not overly concerned about flooding.
  22. SnoSki14
    It should reintensify when it finally turns NNE in the direction of the shear vector. This will commence shortly as the jet is strongly pushing up against him now.
  23. SnoSki14
    You know it's been bad when a dew below 70 is an accomplishment.
  24. SnoSki14
    Models ramping him up post landfall is pretty concerning given we'll likely be on its eastern side.
  25. SnoSki14
    Models pretty adamant that this gets a burst of energy once it's shooting up the coast, must be that anomalous jet streak. Wouldn't be surprised to see it trend stronger as it comes north, even if it's just inland.
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