TheClimateChanger

Martz has previously said the observers were "smart off" to reset the high temperature on the following day. But apparently they weren't smart enough to follow instructions and conform to the observational standards that were in place at the time.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but unless current warming is outside of the range of modeled projections, there's no need to consider any of these other factors and the warming can be fully explained by greenhouse gas emissions [and other factors already considered in the modeling].

Probably the only thing stopping a third consecutive year of record low gauge heights on the lower Mississippi. Currently forecast to approach -9 feet at Memphis (which is where the data below is from).

Using 0C/32F, the only areas from 1991-2020 that would qualify as subtropical would be the Philadelphia metro area. Minimum monthly average is 34.0F at PHL and 33.4F at PNE. Also, some areas right along the Mason-Dixon line would qualify marginally. At HGR [Hagerstown, Md.], minimum average monthly temperature is 32.0F and at MGW [Morgantown, W. Va.] 32.1F. Using data from the past 15 years, however, additional areas would qualify, including parts of the Harrisburg area. Average monthly minimum (2010-2024) is 31.5F at MDT, but 32.3F at CXY. So right on the border of continental and subtropical climates, as defined by Koppen, in parts of the Susquehanna Valley over the past 15 years.

Only if you use the traditional -3C isotherm for the coldest month as the boundary between subtropical & continental. Typically, 0C is used, especially in North America.

Latest drought monitor from this morning shows continued expansion of drought conditions across the Ohio Valley. Zanesville has had just 0.88" since July 17, with 0.58" of that falling on July 29. Really only one legitimate chance for rain over the next 10 days there.

Looks like the cold front moving across the region today and tomorrow should push all of the smoke away for awhile. Perhaps a short window behind the cold front where some smoke can mix down to the surface even across Iowa and Illinois, although concentrations look to stay fairly low so the impact to air quality should be fairly small.

If you look carefully at the above graphic, you will notice more warming has occurred from the 1990s to today than had occurred from the 1860s to 2000 [or at least a similar degree of warming].

For the youngsters today, don't let Dr. Spencer gaslight you into believing the 1990s were unusually cold. The 1990s were the hottest decade of all time at that point in history. Even Dr. Spencer used to argue it was part of some cylical warming trend. He is the most wrong "scientist" of all time. This is how the 1990s used to be displayed when I was growing up: Source: The 1990s was the warmest decade ever recorded instrumentally. The last... | Download Scientific Diagram (researchgate.net)

So surreal to see the "warmest decade of all time" [the 1990s - which many of y'all on Wright Weather and later on EasternUsWx.com incorrectly suggested was a "warm cycle" but which I, as a young child, I might add, correctly indicated would be the coldest decade of the rest of your lives] - now appear as frigid cold. I mean it looks colder than the 1800s looked back in the 1990s. Unreal.

After reviewing the first several posts of the Fall 2023 thread, I can say we are off to a much more fall-like start to September than last year.

Figured I'd get a fall thread going, now that it's September.

Maybe someone needs to get an autumn/fall thread going, now that we are into the month of September?

Some high-altitude wildfire smoke pinwheeling through today.

One other thing that often gets missed in these discussions is how our very perception of reality is being distorted by the changing norms. One poster described summer as "mostly pleasant" in Detroit - which is obviously a subjective assessment, and I don't mean to impugn that assessment. But if true, pretty much every summer in Detroit is pleasant. If we look at the top 33 hottest summer mean temperatures, we get this: I use 33 years as this is pretty much a "who's who" if you will of hot summers in the Great Lakes region. 2024 ranks as 23rd hottest summer [out of 151 years]. This means historically about 6 out of every 7 summers would be expected to be cooler than 2024 in Detroit. What's very interesting is 8 of the 22 warmer years occurred in the 14 years between 2010 and 2023, inclusive. If we key in on the time frame from 1874 to 2009, we get a markedly different distribution. The same set of years has shrunk from 33 to 23 - the 8 years noted above, plus 2024 & 2019, are out. In this distribution, we find only 14 years [out of 136 total years] were warmer than 2024. In other words, prior to 2009, only about 1 in 10 years were warmer than 2024 [with only 6 of those years warmer by more than 0.6F]. So, 2024 was somewhat cooler than the typical post 2010 summer in Detroit, but very warm historically. There may be some claims that this is the result of some urban heat island expansion, but I would be very, very interested in what changes happened specifically between 2009 and 2010 in the vicinity of Detroit Metropolitan Wayne Airport to explain this phenomenon.

Interesting. Most of it appears to be aloft today, but the HRRR suggests a more significant concentration of near surface smoke moving through northern and western Minnesota by Thursday morning. May see some air quality advisories later in the work week if this holds together.

Yes, but relative to the rest of the country, this was the coldest area. On a national scale, I suspect it will come in a bit below the record value from 2021 and 1936.

By contrast, there have been an incredible 22 days in which the recorded high temperature was among the 3 warmest daily readings since May 18, 2023, and 27 days in which the recorded minimum temperature was among the 3 warmest of record in that stretch.

At Harrisburg, this is the first daily low temperature reading among the top three coldest of any day since May 18, 2023, when the low of 40F was third lowest for that date. Source: Threaded Extremes (rcc-acis.org)

Very impressive cold snap this morning in central Pennsylvania. Been awhile since we've seen something like this - maybe May 2020? The low of 36F at Bradford matches the second lowest on record for this date. The low of 44F at DuBois is the 4th lowest reading on record for this date. At Altoona, the low of 43F matches the record low for this date set in 1958 & 1967. And at some longer POR sites... The low of 47F at Williamsport ties 1949, 1960, 1976, 1989 & 2001 for ninth coldest. At Harrisburg, the low of 50F ties 1892, 1893, and 1916 for 3rd coldest on record for this date:

Not quite a record for Caribou, Maine or Mount Washington, New Hampshire, but pretty close. Caribou Mount Washington, NH

Not so sure about that. 2024 has been the hottest year to date at many locations in the eastern U.S. Including very low population density sites, such as Elkins, West Virginia: And Bradford, Pennsylvania:

Nevermind. I guess it got so cold in 1880 that it fell way behind. 1921 is the year to beat at 55.4F. We currently have +0.5F on it. The rest of the year in 1921 was +5.9F, +0.7F, +2.1F, +0.3F, relative to 1991-2020 normals. Or about 2.2/2.3F above normal. Since the year is 2/3rd of the way through, 2024 could finish about 0.75F +/- cooler the rest of the way and still tie for the record. So we'd need to run roughly +1.5F, more or less, above the normal for the last 4 months, which is not too much to ask.

We might do it. We may break the annual temperature record if the CPC's fall outlook is accurate. Even with the warm bias in the 19th century data, it still used to get cold at times. Because it's not actually normal to go through a whole year without at least one cold month. Fall 1880 looks like this compared to 1991-2020 normals: September +1.1F; October +0.1F; November -6.9F, and December was -7F. Just a couple of decades ago, this would have been unthinkable.