TheClimateChanger

Will be interesting to see if Harrisburg can pick up any additional days with a maximum temperature at or below freezing. Currently, at six on the year following last year's 1. So that's 7 days in two years. What I find fascinating is there were only 9 single years with 7 or fewer such days prior to 2023. And now it's approaching two full years with that many days. Wild. It's like former President Trump said at his Butler rally on October 5, "we do a lot of firsts. Let me tell you folks, we do a lot of firsts."

I mean this level of gaslighting is nothing short of incredible. Do these people realize some of us were living in this era? It was almost uncontested on both sides of the so-called debate that the 1980s and 1990s were unusually warm. The debate was largely centered on the extent to which that was attributable to the greenhouse effect, or to natural and cyclical changes. A secondary corollary was the degree to which the warming was attributable to other, non-large scale changes, such us urbanization and the expansion of urban heat islands. Related to that, there was some "debate" as to whether - and by how much - temperatures in that era exceeded temperatures in another similar warm period from the 1930s to the early/mid 1950s. But even that facet of the so-called debate took for granted the fact that the 1980s and 1990s was a warm period, simply questioning the extent to which it differed [or exceeded] earlier warm periods. The reality is these satellite records begin right at the beginning of a very warm period, and this was understood and accepted by all (or nearly all) contemporaneous experts regardless of which side of the so-called "debate" they were on. This idea that the 1980s and 1990s were a cold period is a modern invention. Related to this people also always say what was the climate like before 1880 or 1850, etc.? Have these imbeciles never heard of the Little Ice Age? Pretty much everyone accepts the existence of the LIA, regardless of their position on AGW. The instrumental temperature largely begins at a time when temperatures had warmed some - or at least were beginning to warm - coming out of the LIA. It's very likely there's nothing close to this back to 1300 [start of the LIA].

Here is an example. Paul Callahan [@ChescoWx] questions Roger Coppock as to why he begins his analysis in 1980? Obviously, this is complete and utter nonsense. That's when the first satellites carrying MSUs were launched into orbit. But the implication is this is a cherrypicked start date and that the warming trend is amplified because it starts at a cool period. GASLIGHT CITY! The 1980s were a very warm decade overall [read the article I posted above, and THINK!!!!] and the 1990s were considered to be the warmest decade on record - and by a fair margin. Many so-called experts insisted the 1990s and early 2000s were the peak or zenith of a long-term, but cyclical, warming trend, and that temperatures thereafter would fall. In fact, temperatures have risen at a greater rate than ever before since 2010. Not only have these so-called experts been wrong, they have been DEAD WRONG.

The crazy thing is New Jersey and Pennsylvania are some of the wettest places in the country right now.

Like President Trump said the other day, "We do a lot of firsts. Let me tell you, we do a lot of firsts." Link: Mississippi River's Tower Rock walkable for the 3rd year in a row | ksdk.com

We can also see any temperature records that show the 1980s and 1990s as cold are gaslighting us. The 1980s were very warm, as noted in the article. The 1990s were considered to be the warmest decade on record. And so much misinformation. They want us to "trust the experts" and the so-called experts were used to gaslight us with non sequiturs. "The question you have to ask yourself is, if this was the third warmest year in Pittsburgh, what happened to cause the other two" and "[t]he relationship between global warming and temperatures at any particular location is not very strong." Absolute rubbish from someone who should have known better even in that era. The funny thing is there are people here who think it's a government conspiracy or hoax, as if the U.S. government didn't spend decades gaslighting us and ignoring reality.

You think that's bad. Get a load of this report from the year prior, in the Pittsburgh Press. What's interesting about this is they ranked the years by departure from the mean at the location in which the temperature was taken, rather than absolute temperature, which helped to somewhat account for the change in location and exposure over the years. Today, they no longer provide any sort of context with these threaded extremes. So whereas 1990 was considered the third warmest year on record in Pittsburgh at the time, today it's only 30th warmest [tied with 4 other years]. Although some of that is attributable to the fact that 6 recent years have been warmer than 1990, and one (2020) matched its annual mean. 2024 will certainly come in warmer, and is more likely than not to set the record for all years [even ignoring the nearly 500' elevation gain and change from heavy urban/rooftop siting to suburban airport setting].

These statistics for the airport. I did notice an error in my analysis. There was a 3.3" snowfall on February 15, which was the highest daily snowfall so far in 2024. It was also the most since 8.0" fell on March 12, 2022. You are on the edge of the metro area, but have elevation (2000 feet +) so I'm not surprised you saw more snowfall. Not really representative of where the majority of people reside (generally 700' to 1300' ASL).

3519 days since the last calendar day with 6" of snowfall, which is slightly longer than the streak indicated for Cincy (but should be slightly shorter if that one didn't stop counting on September 26). Although, it does claim you had an absolutely astounding 6,335-day drought which ended on February 3, 1948.

I was looking up current snowfall drought figures, and for Cincinnati, why does it show an ending date of September 26, 2024? I can assure you there was not 6" of snow on September 27. Hopefully, this nonsense gets resolved.

Big change from runs over the past couple weeks, that's for sure. I noticed we are finally starting to see a little movement on the Great Lakes, especially Lake Superior. Forecast calls for levels to continue dropping through March. Note that most precipitation in the Superior Basin is frozen in the winter, so less uncertainty moving forward. The other lakes are more uncertain. Current forecast calls for levels in March to range from 183.02 to 183.27 meters. At the low end, that would approach levels last seen in 2013. Big change from the record high levels of 2019 & 2020. Also note, there's a well-defined seasonality in lake levels, which reach their lowest typically in March or April.

Absolutely incredible.

Didn't realize Harrisburg had a 4" snowfall last winter. Must have been one of the few locations to do it. Wow.

Sorry misread that. The record broke in February.

It's been a record-breaking 1,106 days since the last 4" calendar day snow at Harrisburg.

Will NYC break the record for longest streak without a calendar day snowfall of 4 or more inches? If it doesn't happen on or before the end of December, the streak will move into second place [still 82 days left in the year]. If it doesn't happen this winter, highly likely to break the record [unless there was a very early snowstorm in winter 2024-25].

Will this be the year we see a 4"+ daily snowfall? Or will we break records for longest snowfall drought? It's currently been 943 days since the last 4"+ snowfall in a single calendar day. If we fail to reach that this winter, we will very likely reach a record streak.

I know Hawaii - especially Honolulu and Kahului - had a lot of record highs in 2019. Kahului had 20 of 23 days with record highs [some have since fallen]. You'd think something like this - if it were to occur - would be in a place with very low variation, where globally warmed ocean surface temperatures could push the highs up 2-3F to record levels day after day. Places like Hawaii or Key West. You wouldn't expect it in the continental interior, where there's tons of variability. And I know it's a little less in Arizona, but still... no late season monsoonal push of moisture to disrupt the trend, no push of modified Pacific air, no cold front from the interior. And it's more impressive from a departure standpoint. In a maritime climate, those record highs might only be 5F above the normal high temperatures. Phoenix has had day after day of 15F+ departures from normals that have already risen substantially from prior decades.

Backwards? How does that work?

The NWS has upgraded all of southwest Pennsylvania, except for Allegheny and Beaver Counties, to a freeze warning. Definitely protect or bring in any sensitive vegetation.

In fact, the current forecast has record high temperatures continuing through Columbus Day, which would bring the streak up to 21 consecutive record-breaking or record-tying high temperatures. Three consecutive weeks of record highs. Insane.

The record-breaking heat wave at Phoenix has now reached 16 days. Record for today is 105F, and the current forecast for PHX airport is 106F. So decent odds we add a 17th consecutive record high today.

Going to be unseasonably cold, but I don't know if I'd go so far as to say "frigid." Record low max temperatures for this time of the year are generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Doubt we see anything that cold.

Wouldn't be a true Indian summer if it didn't come after the first frost/freeze of the autumn.