TheClimateChanger

If this is right, we'd be looking at a top ten least snowy start to winter [through the 21st]. While just one run of one model, it's consistent with earlier runs. This particular run actually has substantially more snowfall elsewhere in the region than earlier runs, but still suggests the Pittsburgh region receives little accumulation.

17.6" was the final tally last winter, which was the least since 1990-91. Simple probability would suggest that we probably won't see so little this winter. But it certainly is off to another slow start. I am not even seeing any 384-hour model fantasy snowfalls yet.

When I look at years with ONIs equal to or higher than this, I see a lot of disasters in Pittsburgh. Do you guys think this winter will be the second straight disaster? Here are all cases of a wintertime ONI greater than or equal to 1.8: 1957-58: 37.0" 1965-66: 48.0" 1972-73: 26.3" 1982-83: 30.1" 1997-98: 24.2" 2015-16: 29.6" Mean: 32.5" Five of six cases were below the normal seasonal snowfall. The most recent 4 of which were around 30" or less for the season.

Looks like we are way out of 2009-2010 territory, at least by ONI. Already higher than the peak from that event. Below the mega events of 1997-1998 & 2015-2016, but only a touch below the SON ONI from 1982 (2.0) and on par with 1972 (1.8) and those were two of the strongest events until the 1997-1998 El Nino.

What are you seeing for the low temperature that day? Here are the record warmest minima: Currently, the NWS point-click forecast centered on MKE Airport has 54F/42F for the high and low, which would be the 4th warmest high and 2nd warmest low. Overall, the mean looks like it would be 2nd highest on record behind only 1946.

That would be pretty incredible, as its only happened one time on record dating back to the early 1870s in the Milwaukee area record. In fact, after December 8, there are only 12 days later in the month where it has reached 60 or better [many of them right at the 60F mark]. Current numbers to beat for Friday, December 8th:

Great post, Don. I wouldn't necessarily discount the possibility of a 2015-esque month, however. Obviously, we are only 3 days into the month, but 2023 is running 0.8F warmer than 2015 in those 3 days. So, we are certainly off to a running start.

Very short period (just three days), but this is not the warmest first three days of December on record. In fact, it's not particularly close. 1982 averaged an incredible 59.2F over that stretch. Still, good for fourth place in the threaded record. In more recent decades, 2012 & 1998 saw similar temperatures to this year.

Sorry, I didn't see you had already shared this. I have to admit when I first saw the number I had to do a doubletake. Wasn't sure if Spencer gave the anomalies in degrees C or F. The 0.91 value was so high compared to the 1991-2020 mean - which is, by far, the warmest possible base period one could select - that I was thinking at first it must have been Fahrenheit!

It will be interesting to see where 2023 ends up in the rankings. Currently tied for 19th place. A couple of years have a considerable amount of missing data and could be inflated if those missing days are clustered in the cool season [since the values shown below are calculated by averaging all available days]. Obviously, the majority of the years were from the downtown station which averaged around 2 1/2 degrees warmer than the PIT airport until its termination in 1979. Looking at the airport data, only 2016, 1991, 2017, 2012 and 1949 (at AGC) were warmer to date. Here are the current annual records, shown with two different methods of averaging (by month and by day). Averaging by month is preferable when there is missing data, since it ameliorates the effect of the missing days being clustered in the cold or warm months. But with few missing days, averaging by day is more precise. I think we have a fair shot at climbing into the top 10, despite the 19th rank to date. Averaged by monthly mean Averaged by daily mean For comparison, here is AGC to date. If the official site was still there, several recent years would be quite a bit higher in the threaded record.

November came in at +0.91C on the UAH satellite data set. YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPIC USA48 ARCTIC AUST 2022 Jan +0.03 +0.07 -0.00 -0.23 -0.12 +0.68 +0.10 2022 Feb -0.00 +0.01 -0.01 -0.24 -0.04 -0.30 -0.49 2022 Mar +0.15 +0.28 +0.03 -0.07 +0.23 +0.74 +0.03 2022 Apr +0.27 +0.35 +0.18 -0.04 -0.25 +0.45 +0.61 2022 May +0.18 +0.25 +0.10 +0.01 +0.60 +0.23 +0.20 2022 Jun +0.06 +0.08 +0.05 -0.36 +0.47 +0.33 +0.11 2022 Jul +0.36 +0.37 +0.35 +0.13 +0.84 +0.56 +0.65 2022 Aug +0.28 +0.32 +0.24 -0.03 +0.60 +0.51 -0.00 2022 Sep +0.25 +0.43 +0.06 +0.03 +0.88 +0.69 -0.28 2022 Oct +0.32 +0.43 +0.21 +0.05 +0.16 +0.94 +0.04 2022 Nov +0.17 +0.21 +0.13 -0.16 -0.51 +0.51 -0.56 2022 Dec +0.05 +0.13 -0.03 -0.35 -0.21 +0.80 -0.38 2023 Jan -0.04 +0.05 -0.14 -0.38 +0.12 -0.12 -0.50 2023 Feb +0.09 +0.17 0.00 -0.11 +0.68 -0.24 -0.11 2023 Mar +0.20 +0.24 +0.16 -0.13 -1.44 +0.17 +0.40 2023 Apr +0.18 +0.11 +0.25 -0.03 -0.38 +0.53 +0.21 2023 May +0.37 +0.30 +0.44 +0.39 +0.57 +0.66 -0.09 2023 June +0.38 +0.47 +0.29 +0.55 -0.35 +0.45 +0.06 2023 July +0.64 +0.73 +0.56 +0.87 +0.53 +0.91 +1.44 2023 Aug +0.70 +0.88 +0.51 +0.86 +0.94 +1.54 +1.25 2023 Sep +0.90 +0.94 +0.86 +0.93 +0.40 +1.13 +1.17 2023 Oct +0.93 +1.02 +0.83 +1.00 +0.99 +0.92 +0.62 2023 Nov +0.91 +1.01 +0.82 +1.03 +0.65 +1.16 +0.42

Got the weather station up and running at my place on Friday. Had a 25.1 mph gust today with the thundershowers, which I think is pretty good for a home station.

Second lightning delay for the Steelers.

Here’s what the local office is saying:

Marginal risk today. ...Upper OH Valley... Despite early period cloudiness and showers, the airmass across the Upper OH Valley is expected to destabilize by the afternoon, with temperatures likely reaching the low to mid 50s across western PA. Low-level moisture will be modest, with dewpoints likely in the upper 40s/low 50s. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates coupled with cooling temperatures aloft should result in modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong ascent attendant to this shortwave is expected foster thunderstorm development as it interacts with this limited buoyancy. Low-level flow will be modest, but strong mid and upper-level flow will encourage fast storm motions and the potential for a few stronger gusts with any robust storms. Given the cold mid-level temperatures and strong deep-layer shear, some hail is possible as well.

Careful. Some of these folks don’t like when I bring up DuBois weather stats, for some reason.

Here is change in snowfall over the same time frame by season. Looks good for northern Canada. Not so much elsewhere.

Doubtful. More and more precipitation is falling in forms other than snow for most of the continental U.S. Places like Pittsburgh, Columbus, Indianapolis, and St. Louis are seeing greater than 25% less precipitation falling as snow in the cold season relative to the early-mid 1970s. So even with a small increase in precipitation over that interval, snowfall has decreased somewhat.

I agree. This is a free speech board. We've always managed fine without moderation, and I certainly don't want to cause any problems. I just feel like I'm being unfairly singled out and persecuted by my fellow statesmen.

Look, I'm not trying to cause problems. I don't have any sock puppets. And, like I said above, I'm not a leftist rabblerouser. I like to think I'm of good mixed Pennsylvania German stock. I just like to keep abreast of the situation here in the Commonwealth and share interesting climate and weather observations. I have had trouble getting banned in the past from weather forums due to posting about climate change, that's why I only post statistics without commentary and try to avoid mentioning climate change. I was just sharing a few items here, since the western PA thread is so dead. I don't want any problems, because it will result in me being suspended or banned even though I didn't start anything. In any event, let's just let bygones be bygones and get back to discussing the weather. As the famous keystoner Joe Bastardi likes to say: "Enjoy the weather, because it's the only weather you got."

No, I don't know who that is.

I should add, showing up on only a single run of ONE model at Day 9. And as @mitchnickhimself observes, not supported by the ensembles.