TheClimateChanger

Currently, it's been 668 days since a 6"+ calendar day snowfall at PIT, which is only 35th longest. Of course, if we don't see any 6" calendar days this winter, we will quickly climb the ranks. As an aside, it's also been that long since 3" has been observed in a calendar day [good for 4th longest streak]. The last 3" or better calendar day being 3/12/2022, when 8.0" was observed - part of a 2-day total of 9.7".

6-inch calendar day snowfalls have been atrocious lately. There was a 2,584 day gap that ended with a fluke 8.7" on March 21, 2018 [2-day total of 10.5"], which was promptly followed by another 985-day gap which ended with 6.8" on December 1, 2020. If not for that fluke storm [which had a lot of uncertainty, and was expected to be under 6"], we would have shattered #1 there.

Interesting. Fifth longest streak without a 2" snowfall - now at 353 days and counting.

Yeah, I just confirmed that 1918-1919 is the only winter without a calendar day snowfall of 1" or greater at DAY. The maximum was 0.6" on a couple of occasions. Of course, this was when observations were still downtown, which is a couple/few hundred feet lower in elevation than the more suburban airport site. Also, snow measuring techniques were different than today [no snowboard/clearing]. Regardless, a top 4 streak looks to be a near certainty.

Interesting. 5th longest streak on record, and longest since the official records have been taken at DAY airport (see below). Looks like it should move into 4th place for sure, maybe third. It would probably be difficult to get another two weeks without 1"+ snowfall on a calendar day to move into second place with the current pattern. Some missing data for the early years, especially the #1 streak, so it might be inflated. But I think that's just some summer months where snowfall wasn't reported and the algorithm interprets that as missing data - but there could be some missing winter data in there as well.

1.29” of precipitation reported on my weather station so far today.

Looks like some of the worst winds are in Westmoreland County. Latrobe (Arnold Palmer Airport) is reporting wind gusts to 68 mph: National Weather Service : Observed Weather for past 3 Days : Arnold Palmer Regional Airport

I just hope southeast Michigan gets missed. After cheating their way to a natty, they don't deserve any snowfall this winter.

Weird how Midway has had more than Rockford. Doesn't seem possible.

Interesting. The Weather Channel has this for Monday: Watching a potential winter storm. Variably cloudy with snow showers. High around 25F. Winds WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. Snowfall around one inch. Variably cloudy with snow showers. Low 14F. Winds W at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 40%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. I will say I find more often that not that when they include that "Watching a potential winter storm" language, it means we get to watch a winter storm go somewhere else other than Pittsburgh.

From Hansen's newsletter: It is possible to shut off this amplifying feedback by cooling the planet, but that can happen only if we reduce the present enormous geoengineering of the planet. This will require purposeful actions to cool the planet, in addition to phasing down greenhouse gas emissions as rapidly as practical. Fortunately, there are young people who are beginning to grasp the situation that they are being handed by older generations. We will write a paper in cooperation with enlightened young people from Finland,[7] Eric Rignot, and several other people discussing this situation. We intend to complete the paper this coming spring, by which time we expect to have additional data that test our interpretation of ongoing global change.

Wow, came in fast. PIT has had 2/3 of an inch of precipitation already in three hours.

Can't argue with you there. And, my bad, I think the small discrepancy in amounts may have simply been you using calendar years. When I want a mean of a series, I'll often just throw it in NowData which does the math automatically, but it defaults to winter season [water year] for snowfall amounts, rather than calendar year.

One correction: I believe you are beginning in 2010-2011 [and presumably not counting this winter, which is still early on], that it 13 seasons through 2022-2023. Also, the mean, according to NowData, at DCA is 10.4" not 10.6" over that interval. That's an interesting thought though. If we look at Greensboro, the 1951-1980 and 1961-1990 mean were 10.3 inches. The mean from 2011-2023 is down to 7.0 inches. At Richmond, the 1951-1980 mean was 16.1 inches, and it bumped up to 16.4 inches in 1961-1990. The last 13 seasons, the mean is down to 8.6 inches. At DCA, the 1951-1980 mean was 17.9 inches, which increased to 18.5 inches in 1961-1990. As noted, per NowData, the mean of the past 13 years is just 10.4 inches. I like to do comparisons of 2010-present to the mid and late 20th century normals, because it seems like 2010 was when things really went south. And the 1951-1980/1961-1990 normals give a useful comparison as those were the normals in place when Millenials and younger GenX were youths.

We could see a bit this weekend too. The GFS suggests a couple inches from wraparound snows are possible. It does turn much colder Saturday afternoon, although I'm kind of doubtful the low stalls out for that long. May be too robust with the wraparound precipitation.

Looks like the European modeling has a snow threat next week for the eastern US, but that's still over a week out.

Looks like a warm & wet to cold & dry pattern for a little while. Doubt we will see much snow for the next week. Even with the recent snowfall, still the 14th lowest seasonal amount (out of 144 years) through January 8. Only 2007, 2016, 1995 & 1966 had less since observations have been taken at KPIT, with one other year (1941) at KAGC. I guess coming off the 8th least seasonal tally last winter, that can be seen as a small improvement. Looking at current averages, we need nearly one-half inch per day just to keep pace with normals at this time of the year. Not sure we do that. If there's one good thing, it looks like the East Coast folks will be even worse off. But the Chicago area looks favored for some heavy snows.

All I remember is the daily pest lists.

That's the old usenet group, right? That place was always whack.

Looks like about an inch here.

That’s expected though, no? I clicked on the forecast for Clarksburg and it said heavy rain today. Also, the forecast is down to an inch now for our area. So some disconnect there with the advisory in parts of the region.

Where are they seeing 17 inches?

Could be worse. Through Hour 57, Kuchera is showing 2.0 inches at Pittsburgh (City), and 10:1 ratio is showing 2.7 inches [on the Pivotal Weather site, anyways]. I think most of us would accept a couple of inches at this point. Just a shame we are in the heart of winter and 10:1 ratio is yielding more than Kuchera. I think Kuchera clown maps are a thing of the past. It's just too warm to get it to show those absurb ratios these days. Kuchera ratio snowfall has generally been less than 10:1 ratio this winter.

Hard not too, with all the snowfall futility and warm weather records of late. Ninth lowest snowfall to date on record. Several recent years show up, including 2007, 2016 & 2022 with even slower starts. Eighth lowest seasonal snowfall on record last winter [3rd lowest at KPIT]. 1879-1880 shows 10.2 inches, but snowfall records don't begin until 1/1/1880, so I filtered that out. As for the other years showing missing days, typically with multiples of 30/31, it's just warm weather months where they didn't fill in zeroes showing up as missing - but there could be missing data. I did not check. One thing that's interesting is how there's less and less snowfall prior to early January. The total seasonal snowfall continues to be dominated by lower elevation city data, which also far predates the use of a snowboard and 6-hour measurements. Of course, it doesn't matter where or how the snow is measured if there's simply no snow falling (which increasingly appears to be the case before early/mid January). EDIT: NWS Pittsburgh has 1889-1890 at 11.4 inches, not 10.4 inches. All of the other years appear to match the NWS data.

You may be on to something. 850s are right at freezing on the NAM at hour 30 when some of the heaviest precipitation is falling. Even a fraction of a degree warmer will melt the snow before it reaches the surface.