TheClimateChanger

Tornado Warning PAC003-129-202230- /O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0037.241120T2159Z-241120T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 459 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... East Central Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Northwestern Westmoreland County in southwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 530 PM EST. * At 459 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Aspinwall, or near Penn Hills, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Monroeville, Apollo, Shaler Township, Plum, Murrysville, Wilkinsburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, O`hara Township, Oakmont, Fox Chapel, Etna, Sharpsburg, Springdale, Churchill, Aspinwall, Verona and Blawnox. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built building away from windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 4056 7977 4059 7956 4058 7957 4056 7956 4055 7954 4054 7953 4054 7951 4044 7948 4045 7996 4053 7997 TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 264DEG 35KT 4049 7992 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ MLB

58 mph wind gust at KPIT.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning PAC003-007-019-125-202215- /O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0279.241120T2124Z-241120T2215Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 424 PM EST Wed Nov 20 2024 The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Allegheny County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Central Washington County in southwestern Pennsylvania... Southern Butler County in west central Pennsylvania... Beaver County in western Pennsylvania... * Until 515 PM EST. * At 424 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line from near Ellwood City to 8 miles north of Wolfdale, or along a line from 6 miles northeast of Beaver Falls to 7 miles east of Avella, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Pittsburgh, Penn Hills, Mount Lebanon, Bethel Park, Ross Township, McCandless Township, Monroeville, Cranberry, Moon Township, McMurray, McKeesport, Butler, Franklin Park, Aliquippa, Canonsburg, Beaver Falls, Monaca, Avella, Gastonville and Shaler Township. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from windows. These storms are capable of producing damaging winds. Tornadoes can develop quickly from severe thunderstorms. Seek shelter immediately in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. && LAT...LON 4025 8049 4085 8035 4085 8016 4090 8016 4086 7969 4064 7969 4057 7977 4053 7970 4043 7970 4039 7976 4030 7979 4029 7978 4028 7980 4023 7981 4023 7978 4020 7987 4019 7986 4016 7986 4016 7990 4013 7989 TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 279DEG 30KT 4081 8023 4053 8029 4031 8035 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Milcarek Severe thunderstorm warning with tornado possible tag.

Still going to end up with some of the latest first flakes on record, as many areas have not even had a trace. So there certainly could have been a futility watch, even if one was never issued. Detroit - 8th latest first snow, and latest since 2004 Cleveland - will tie 1944 & 1978 for 5th latest first snowfall [each had first snow on 11-21] Alpena - 2nd latest first snow Green Bay - will tie 1918 for second latest first snow [if snow falls today] or finish in sole possession of second place [if it holds off until tomorrow] Sault Ste. Marie - latest first snow flakes on record

Interesting. Not many "official" weather observations are that old. Here is Lansing, Michigan from 12/31/1863 - 1/2/1864. 3 inches of snow, and brutal cold. Here is Toronto, Ontario from 12/31/1863 to 1/3/1864. 1.7 inches of snow, with a sharp cold snap. Doesn't seem that bad, unless it was worse in Ohio.

So far every day this month has been at least 1F above normal at PIT. Looks like that streak will end Thursday, and we may string together several below normal days.

Interesting. My phone has 5.2 inches of snow for Pittsburgh on Thursday. Also, another 2.15 inches of snow on Friday (not shown).

The map is for meteorological winter (December - February).

Slight risk of heavy snow the week of 11/21.

It's starting!

I mean, of course, there's going to be some lake effect snow. But Buffalo's snowfall total of 71.3" was 24.1" below normal. Other locations were far worse - Erie had its 4th lowest snowfall on record (24.8") and Cleveland its 7th lowest on record (25.7") - the latter just one year removed from its 3rd least snowfall on record (22.7" in 2022-23). Both years being the lower than any winter since 1931-32. Rochester's total of 52.5" was 13th lowest on record, one year removed from its 10th least snowy winter on record (50.4" in 2022-23). Both of those totals were least since the winter of 1952-53. Doesn't matter how warm the lakes are if there isn't sufficient cold air. And northwest flow events have seemingly gone extinct in the last several years.

They are not wrong.

Incredible. 1.3" more than MDT has recorded since January 25, 2023, a period of nearly 22 months.

Through the first third of November, PIT is running a whopping 10.2F degree surplus relative to the normal. Needless to say, we are building a considerable separation between the prior warmest years in the threaded record. Now, 0.6F warmer than 1880 and 0.9F warmer than 1921. 1921 is the current warmest year at 55.4F. In 1921, there was an impressive cold snap in mid-November, then the second half of the month was largely a "blowtorch." December saw fairly typical temperatures. 1880 was bitterly cold in the second half of November and the entire month of December, so it quickly plummets in the rankings from here on out. Almost looks like a lock for warmest year on record, and we could do it by more than 1F over 1921 if December is mild.

Mostly just a result of the fact that they added about 1.5F to the calculated mean for each month in the 1991-2020 normals for Toledo. The 1991-2020 mean for October is 53.1F for both Toledo and Detroit, so if they had just used the average, it would be +3.4F at Detroit and +3.1F at Toledo. If you look at the data, you'll notice a disconnect began in late 2018. What I think happened is the TOL ASOS was reporting too high during that period. While the normals are often thought of as averages, they are not. They are smoothed and normalized, but NOAA also makes adjustments based on pairwise homogenization. So I think the normals for Toledo got incorrectly adjusted upwards based on the warming in the last couple of years of the climate base period, which I believe was likely just due to a bad sensor or perhaps a problem with the fan/aspiration. The adjustments make sense if they are based on a change in equipment, change in location of the observation site, or a growing urban heat island effect, but can be unrepresentative if the changes result from an equipment problem that is corrected after the fact. In the case of TOL, the ASOS was down for much of the month of August. It's clear that since that change, it's been reporting temperatures more in line with surrounding locations.

Same here. I’m out in the woods. So eerie for November, when you’d typical expect it to be like 40F at this time of night.

Surprised it wasn’t even higher. It was 85F at Dunkirk, New York yesterday. That’s hot for there for anytime of the year. Nearby Buffalo has seen 4 years where the temperature didn’t even reach 85F, and 5 others where the maximum reading was 85F. Thought that superheated airmass descending over the mountains might be able to reach 90F.

85F in Dunkirk, New York. Wow, just imagine how hot this superheated airmass in the Coastal Plain. Maybe some 90s tomorrow?

85F in Dunkirk, New York today, just off Lake Erie. That’s warm for July.