csnavywx

https://staff.cgd.ucar.edu/cdeser/docs/hwang.anthro_aerosols_persistent_lanina.oct23.pdf Paper link. Would go quite a long ways in explaining why La Nina and trade wind strength has been persistent. Seems to suggest that this is a fast (transient) response and that the slow response is in the opposite direction. Interestingly the model experiment in the paper seems to suggest the fast response in the real world peaks this decade and then the slow response kicks in, reversing the trend. Overall, not great news as this slants the table more towards higher sensitivities with the current trend only being a transient braking mechanism on warming.

Hansen not the only one sniffing out higher ECS. @bluewave @chubbs @bdgwx Timestamped for the appropriate part of the talk.

Am I the only one that read that Webb tweet completely differently?

Here's the EF-scale proposal for damage indicators: https://www.depts.ttu.edu/nwi/Pubs/FScale/EFScale.pdf Some pretty widespread Cat3+ damage (trees snapped including some palms, partially debarked). Curtain/interior walls suffering partial to complete failure in high rises. Some of them you can just see all the way through.

Looks like an OKW was generated and the warm pool is on the move. The arrival of better westerly anomalies after the monsoon season ended was expected. Probably going to take a couple weeks for that to start to be felt further east though.

https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-condesa/ Last webcam I can find still running. Pitch black though. All power lost nearby about 10m ago. All it is picking up is the occasional lightning flash from the eyewall.

Absolutely wild watching power flashes mixed with eyewall lightning as the core approaches.

Seeing power flashes occasionally on https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-panoramica/ Dreams resort still up: Bahía de Acapulco en vivo, Acapulco - Webcams de México (webcamsdemexico.com)

Yeah, getting knocked offline one by one here. Dreams resort still going strong.

Notable increase in noise on the first resort webcam in the last 10m.

https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/playa-de-acapulco/ https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/bahia-de-acapulco/ Couple of webcams overlooking the bay.

Needs to plow due N to spare the worst damage at this point. Last second left turn (aka NHC track) would actually be a huge negative.

https://essopenarchive.org/users/304243/articles/657090-long-term-surface-impact-of-hunga-tonga-hunga-ha-apai-like-stratospheric-water-vapor-injection I believe this was a topic of discussion back in May ITT. Global effects small, but regionally could have an impact.

Tonga paper had a pretty sizable regional ++ ridging tendency in this area in model years 2-7. Might be a player here.

Still time for recovery, yes. Just not a great start. Pattern gets better in the last 7-10 days of the month, but not looking like an upper 50% type of year right now.

+IOD response feeling left out of this conversation (note these are for Nov/Dec): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00328-z

Lmfao. Crushed it. Ended at 0.17 above this. Legit shot of not only smashing Feb. 16 but also printing the first 1.5C in the GISS data set.

Of course there's gonna be a competition and emotions. Snow is on the line here. More valuable than cocaine on this board. Has been for 20+ years (here+eastern).

The jump since '20 has been surprisingly strong. 60-65ZJ just since then.

Plenty warm enough given its location, strength and mode of formation. Not really a factor here. Don't forget that current speeds in the Gulf Stream are on the order of 1 m/s. Only takes a few days in that area to recover from upwelling induced by wind as there's always a fresh supply advected in.

Nino tends to suppress more over the Caribbean and GOM than it does out in the MDR or particularly the subtropical Atlantic. It's just that there's been a big expansion of the 26C isotherm both spatially and at depth over the last 40y (and especially the last few years) in these areas where a Nino won't really help stop development. Obviously if you don't have a mod-strong Nino in place helping shear part of the basin, then this leaves open more area over time to higher SSTs and OHC. ENSO isn't the only game in town though, and changes to static stability via SAL intrusions and the West African Monsoon are important too.

Doh! Poe's Law strikes again!

So, if you were to hand-draw a CONUS surface temperature chart with isotherms, you're telling me that the temperature would go *up* the more stations I have? News to me.

Gonna be wild if we end up breaking Feb '16 with a *September* reading, considering the current Sep. record is about 0.30 below that level.

Sep. already stacking some nuclear daily prints on moyhu. Prob going to end up above Aug at this point. Still 5 or 6 months of prints until ENSO peak.