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csnavywx

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Everything posted by csnavywx

  1. csnavywx
    Yeah, would need a turbo +AD/-AO to counter how well it's gone in the main basin so far this year. Probably not getting that until next year (post-peak Nino).
  2. csnavywx
    Was referring to hoping for a moderate Nino event initially. Quickly became evident in March that wasn't going to be the case.
  3. csnavywx
    This year was basically fine. Just need to keep it to a low simmer and slowly reconstitute the warm pool over time. Maybe throw in a cooler NATL spell that can reinforce trades and pop an actual CP Nino or two. We're at least very very likely to see some very strong Arctic warming into early winter '27-28 (response up there tends to lag lower latitudes quite a bit).
  4. csnavywx
    The entire warm pool is being discharged. Not only is there not any significant trade resistance this time around (remember '15?), quite a bit of activity has been ongoing away from the equator in addition to being on it. Modeling has steadily been playing catchup since the start of the event as it gradually incorporates all of the additional accumulated wind stress and eckman transport. This will be a colossal east-based event and trying to short it or fade it or talk it down is a fool's game. Look I get it, I like snow too and very early on (Dec/Jan) I was hoping we'd get a moderate event with the indo-pacific warm pool still intact. But that ain't happening. Better off cheering for some exotically warm winter up north that forces some weirdly favorable wave breaks downstream and south. Or save your emotional capital for the backlash Nina period. These big Ninos do have a tendency to cause climate regime shifts, so it's not always a bad thing once the event clears.
  5. csnavywx
    GLAAM just dropped from record highs to slightly above normal. I think we're at risk of ruthlessly extrapolating some short term mean reverting variability here. It's definitely coupled to the atmosphere. Hell, there's a standing wave set up in the tropical Pacific already.
  6. csnavywx
    It's such a beast that I really wouldn't worry too much about the other indices at this point. They tend to get drug along into resonance after a while.
  7. csnavywx
    It's possible. I'm kind of leaning that way this time since we're likely to get a fully coupled and canonical ('97-like) full warm pool discharge and it will take some time for that to recover.
  8. csnavywx
  9. csnavywx
    We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.
  10. csnavywx
    1997-98 comps and crayon drawers get nuked.
  11. csnavywx
    What happens when you get 1997 and 1972-like wind stress patterns with 2026 OHC/SSTs? We're about to find out.
  12. csnavywx
    Let this be a lesson that the state and path dependency are more important than generally given credit for. Arguments about the spring barrier tended to discount this by default and also discount that these models have to parameterize certain calculations that end up biasing them *cold* on big honking tail events like this.
  13. csnavywx
    Sitting near/at record highs now.
  14. csnavywx
    It was quite cold and I enjoyed every minute of it. Reminded me of yesteryear winters a bit. Many thanks to the IO-Pac warm pool for that gem. I went for below normal temps the entire winter. Only thing that didn't pan out was above normal snow (even though we ended up with >3.0" frozen LWE). Upcoming winter should be even easier to forecast than that one was. In fact, if you have trouble with this upcoming winter, I'm not sure this hobby is for you. (Hint: If you're using the CANSIPS here, you're in for a big disappointment.)
  15. csnavywx
    UAH huggers are going to be in complete shambles in about 8 months. Gonna be really tough to explain that one away.
  16. csnavywx
    Given how the following month went in pumping all of that WWV eastward and the sheer amount of momentum transfer into the thermocline, I will make the following statement: Never short sell synoptically obvious events.
  17. csnavywx
    It's a nice theory, but there's reason to believe cooling caused by tropical volcanic eruptions actually help weaken trades over the WPac: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/10/171003111101.htm So it's debatable whether that Nino even happens in the first place, or if it does, to that degree.
  18. csnavywx
    Now that we officially moved to RONI, the funniest possible outcome is a Nino that smashes through 2.0 on RONI anyways. Still early but hard not to like all of the off-center WWBs pumping warm water volume towards the equator. It's got the potential, especially given how early it got started.
  19. csnavywx
    Been in these shoes before. Can't turn your back on em til it's truly over -- even if the front half is a flop.
  20. csnavywx
    Lol, lmao even. SPECI KDCA 170112Z 31037G59KT 5SM -RA BR SQ FEW016 BKN021 OVC037 08/06 A2936 RMK AO2 PK WND 30059/0112 WSHFT 0052 RAB06 PRESRR P0000 T00830056 $
  21. csnavywx
    Filtered sun again and that line missed me to the north. The watch getting canx'd here is almost begging to be punched in the stomach by the front this evening. 300-600 cape into 500-700 helicity should be good enough for a few mini-supers, imo -- so long as we are indeed done with this overturning crap.
  22. csnavywx
    Virtually all of the LSRs are confined up on the Piedmont and mountains to the west/southwest. Makes sense, because that was the only area that got a chance to destabilize a bit before the crapvection-driven overturning got going. Consolation prize is that it's killing the line off completely to the south, so there might be a chance for the cold front this evening to have a bit of something to work with.
  23. csnavywx
    Needs a lot more helicity with this low amount of buoyancy. There's a narrow window this evening before the cold front, but you'd have to stop bombarding the warm sector with this low grade overturning for it to work. This is why capping is so important. You have it or you get this nonsense.
  24. csnavywx
    Glad I've been downplaying it to all of my customers today. Quite the bust on the way. Hell I might have not downplayed it enough. Sure, there will be some more 50KT reports and a tor or three but I anticipate this probable bust is going to cause some issues later in the season when we do actually get a system with a clean warm sector. And that's pretty likely, imo, given the strong ramp into Nino.
  25. csnavywx
    Little peeks of sunshine here. But too much crappy low grade convection polluting the warm sector now, especially in the east. Some is okay ofc, because ideally you don't want your LCLs too high, but still need a corridor of at least some halfway decent destabilization ahead of this afternoon's activity.
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