Jump to content

csnavywx

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,739

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by csnavywx

  1. csnavywx
    Someone needs to convince them to just start using the EC-AIFS alongside this. The initialization, bias and skill score improvements are too good not to.
  2. csnavywx
    This, ladies and gents, is what we call a dead cat bounce.
  3. csnavywx
    Interesting article that would solve part of the kill mechanism of the P-T. Too difficult to compare today. We have a better continental configuration with more evolved ecosystems, a somewhat smaller basin and ice sheets+lower albedo to work with, but a sun that's 2-3% brighter. The buffer is obviously better, even if the "hothouse" ceiling has fallen a lot since then due to luminosity increases.
  4. csnavywx
    A review by GPT of the literature on 1k-10kyr (Holocene) ENSO:
  5. csnavywx
    I've tried finding some ENSO reconstruction studies via proxies and can't find anything pointing to something this large. Still looking though. Prob safe to say 150y at this point. Might be realistically as long as 1kyr or something like that. A few recent papers have pointed towards increasing ENSO variance and amplitude with continued warming: Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate | Nature Communications (2022) And: Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation | Nature Communications (2025) Strictly speaking, it is too early to say whether we are entering a phase of increased ENSO variability, much less resonance. The models here also use SSP5-85, which we are running under for emissions (but above for radiative forcing!). The takeaway, in my mind is to keep an open mind here about the *possibility* of a changing system. It's often common to see increased volatility as a state change approaches in non-linear systems like this (even if it's still decades away). The million dollar question, as @BlizzardWx points out, for this season is how far east the warm pool gets and how far east convection gets rooted into this winter. I think it may be as far east as 120W, given that we're already ahead of 1997 (which got to 140W). We're in such rarified air here, it's hard to tell.
  6. csnavywx
    Carbon+nitrogen causing greening is good and it works until it doesn't. Burned area including ag stubble and grasslands instead of being broken out into category is also a problem. When you're changing ambient conditions by several degrees over the typical lifetime of a hardwood tree or conifer tree, we should not be surprised when that plant and soil carbon stock becomes unstable vs. realized temps. People generally think of wildfires as the primary component of correcting a landscape towards its equilibrium state and that's certainly an important mechanism (especially if we're doing peat or old growth forest burning), but if anything, the true surprise has been how total ecosystem respiration (TER) has changed in hot-wet environments and how big of a carbon source those regions are.
  7. csnavywx
    Twitter feeds some of these folks to me too (I assume algorithmic engagement bait doing its thing), but yeah, agree that most of them are hobbyists. That said it's not totally hopeless if the forcing moves far enough east to sneak in some stuff late in the season. And we're kind of in a n=1 space if it comes to say, the warm pool making it to 120W (instead of 160-140W, heck it's *already* at 160).
  8. csnavywx
    Pretty obvious it wasn't going to be a Modoki from early on given the unusual off-equator WWBs and strength of the subsequent WWBs near the equator. It was catchable by late March-early April and dead easy call to make by late May.
  9. csnavywx
    This is a known issue with the model. It will almost always favor CP Ninos until later on. I'm going to guess this has at least partially has to do with too much ocean model vertical mixing and diffusion as well as convective schemes that underestimate coupling and convective feedbacks (e.g. Bjerknes feedback).
  10. csnavywx
    The newer CMIP6 models place more importance on winter temps and the Atlantic front going forward. This year is a good example of that. Pretty good conditions present on the Pacific front, but the Atlantic front is weak enough to place the CAB near record lows with continental heat placing the CAA near record lows too. I keep expecting us to hit a wall here on extent (and we probably still will). However we may also get a decent late season run since there's still quite a bit of ice left to melt at lower latitudes in the Pacific. Regardless, I would not expect anything flashy until later next season or during the fall refreeze in '27. That's when big +ENSO tends to have an outsized effect.
  11. csnavywx
    Record warm water volume this time:
  12. csnavywx
    Yes. The keystone paper you're looking for is here: Influence of the state of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the following year’s El Niño | Nature Geoscience Made a note of it last year, but at that point it looked initially like a moderate event was most likely. wxchris on X: "The recent record/near record -IOD is collapsing. Warm water is sloshing east towards the WPac, putting the fully mature Nina on borrowed time. Expect whiplash. https://t.co/rZb3PjimBU" / X
  13. csnavywx
    If I had to guess, your nose is probably picking up a bit of peat+muskeg burning mixed in there. People have no idea how much worse it can get once the main shield peatlands and mixed peat/forest stands start burning. Gonna guess winter is going to be extremely warm up there this year and tilt the dice towards early warming/drying of those areas into next summer.
  14. csnavywx
    The large kelvin wave around 140W is probably the one to do most of the heavy lifting in a few weeks. Would expect subsurface anoms to increase past +10C here soon. Getting a little more tricky to find them when they get generated since the thermocline is pretty depressed already, but at least this one is still pretty visible.
  15. csnavywx
    Yes, at first blush it's not a disaster for the SE. But last couple of strong Ninos makes it clear it may not be that cut and dry either. Either way, I'd bet on wet.
  16. csnavywx
    Here's the continental composite using the 1861-1900 average to detrend. Note that a simple detrend, while helpful, still assumes that SST changes since then will scale linearly in terms of forcing (almost certainly not going to be the case). Nevertheless, the overall pattern makes it clear that the continent will mostly suffer from high frequency intrusion of downslope events, enhanced by anomalous moisture transport and a surplus moist static energy.
  17. csnavywx
    Leaning towards it getting even stronger than the 1877-78 event, much less the 97/98 one, but that depends on whether or not we get any sort of pause in the WWB train/standing wave. That event was exotically warm across most of North America through the vast majority of the winter. In fact, farmers were planting their crops in Minnesota in February (yes, really). Article covering that from Mark Seeley out of the University of Minnesota: 1878 El Niño saw crops planted in February Texas itself was mild (relative to normal at the time) and very wet into the fall and especially winter. The current event you're suffering through is a side effect of a persistent rossby wave train that has set up in (at least in part) due to the response to the forcing induced by the developing Nino, but ENSO relationships in the summer are weaker and it's also partly just bad luck.
  18. csnavywx
    '97 loses some steam from here over the next month and as you point out, there's another large KW on the way, so would expect these two events to swap positions with respect to max anomaly temps.
  19. csnavywx
    We're at the point where this event catches up to '97 and passes it handily.
  20. csnavywx
    Case in point. We were slightly behind 97/98 with thermocline depression. That year took a break in July before turning the turbojets back on. This one doesn't appear to be taking a breather.
  21. csnavywx
    Early trade wind pattern in this event certainly looked like 72-73. Then tilted more towards 97-98. It's a souped up version of those older canonical events, imo, if superimposed on a warmer background state. Problem is I think the warm pool is coming even further east than '98 did (that event got to about 150W) and it will drag everything else into resonance with it, so makes a straight shot comparison more muddled.
  22. csnavywx
    Yeah, would need a turbo +AD/-AO to counter how well it's gone in the main basin so far this year. Probably not getting that until next year (post-peak Nino).
  23. csnavywx
    Was referring to hoping for a moderate Nino event initially. Quickly became evident in March that wasn't going to be the case.
  24. csnavywx
    This year was basically fine. Just need to keep it to a low simmer and slowly reconstitute the warm pool over time. Maybe throw in a cooler NATL spell that can reinforce trades and pop an actual CP Nino or two. We're at least very very likely to see some very strong Arctic warming into early winter '27-28 (response up there tends to lag lower latitudes quite a bit).
  25. csnavywx
    The entire warm pool is being discharged. Not only is there not any significant trade resistance this time around (remember '15?), quite a bit of activity has been ongoing away from the equator in addition to being on it. Modeling has steadily been playing catchup since the start of the event as it gradually incorporates all of the additional accumulated wind stress and eckman transport. This will be a colossal east-based event and trying to short it or fade it or talk it down is a fool's game. Look I get it, I like snow too and very early on (Dec/Jan) I was hoping we'd get a moderate event with the indo-pacific warm pool still intact. But that ain't happening. Better off cheering for some exotically warm winter up north that forces some weirdly favorable wave breaks downstream and south. Or save your emotional capital for the backlash Nina period. These big Ninos do have a tendency to cause climate regime shifts, so it's not always a bad thing once the event clears.
×
×
  • Create New...