csnavywx

HRRR is a failure mode. The delayed coastal development allows the inland low/surface reflection to strengthen more like a classic clipper. The best snow would be 50-150 miles left of the low track with the rest of the subforum confined to getting light f-gen and WAA driven precip on the front flank of the system, followed quickly by a dry slot aloft. If you want decent snow outside the northern part of the subforum (PA, NJ, far N MD, etc), you really don't want that inland low to develop like that.

It's a testable hypothesis and soon. There are some similarities with the late 1877/78 El Nino, which came after 6 (!) years of Nina conditions. We had 3 years here, so while pretty extensive, not quite the amount of pre-conditioning we had then. The strong ENSO component will undoubtedly fade. Question is how cool it gets during the upcoming moderate-strong Nina. (The recent +IOD collapse is likely a harbinger here.) Also, we've had a very notable increase in trade wind strength over the past 20-30y, possibly due to the "pattern effect" of anthropogenic aerosol loading in the Pacific. It's a transient climate response that one would expect to be peaking right around now (this decade). The peaking and gradual relaxation of that effect in combination with a notable increase in EEI would support higher temps over time. Right now my eyes are glued to ocean heat content readings and EEI.

Absolutely. I've had a lot of overperformers pull this little trick and end up extending the duration of snowfall via earlier start times, especially when the lift is near/in the DGZ. Sharper trough would help that along.

Little bit of 850-700mb frontogenesis showing up on the EC (matches some of the high-res runs) between 00-09z Fri. Might be a sneaky narrow band that sets up ahead of the main event if it can top-down saturate enough.

'tis alright. Given the hard IOD collapse, we've likely got a moderate-strong backlash Nina coming that should help test the lower bound of global temps. Though, I've noticed the mid-lats didn't really cool down all the way, despite the strong/super Nino, so they might still remain elevated.

Looks like a flooded source region and low quality cold airmasses. Very typical/canonical +ENSO/+IOD. The kind of crap where you need extra help from timing even with favorable tracks. Would probably shift that forward a couple of weeks. Mid-Jan to late Feb? Would give time for the Pacific Jet to chill the fuck out or the GoA low to retrograde a bit and get some recharge up north.

Adding another paper to the pile on that subject: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101499

Absolutely. Geopolitical risk is probably one of the biggest unhedged risks. Ironically, the dollar tends to benefit from stress elsewhere. It tends to be weaker countries and currencies that blow up first. I say global inflation because it's not likely to pop up equally everywhere. That in itself will likely feed back onto geopolitical risk.

Yeah, inflation caused by degradation of existing civilizational networks. That increasing damage manifests first as slowing economic growth and slowly climbing global inflation as more of the PCE deflator is used up making up for damage. Nominal GDP might indeed stay high but real GDP gradually declines as net production is undercut. Ortiz-Bobea et. al. as an example for total factor productivity on agriculture. Most of the slowed growth is in the tropics, but will make its way out to mid-latitudes between now and mid-century: https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2007/2007.10415.pdf

Mann has been relentlessly hounded by deniers and skeptics for decades at this point. I think that has caused him to be quite conservative and fall back only to the *most* defensible positions. Can't say I blame him. Doesn't make a great mindset for going out on a limb and making difficult predictions though. I don't know if we're gonna get the Mann of the '90s back. Th one who was willing to take some risk, that is.

Oh yes, there's nothing stopping it on a *regional* level, but that's because looking at it regionally essentially means treating it as an open system. Once you go global, it switches to closed. China, EU and US are all in a pretty stiff manufacturing recession (all PMIs are down every month over the last year). China's particularly because they frontran years of industrial production with their real estate bubble, so some reversion to the mean is to be expected. EU because of the war (and their primary energy consumption is down 4.4% y/o/y): The net however, is probably still going to end up positive (+0.1-0.9%), despite all of the renewable capacity installs and the recessions/stagnation -- and that's because growth shifted elsewhere, in this case India. (+8.5% yoy emissions with 7.8% yoy growth). And there's plenty more where that came from this decade. In addition, we still have growth phases to go through in the rest of the SE Maritime Continent (Vietnam, Indonesia, etc) and most importantly Africa, whose growth rate is just now starting to take off. Pop will double there by mid-century to >2.5B. All of this explosive growth will require some emissions. How much exactly is still up to us, but we will need to press twice as hard as we think we need to to really get this under control before climate damage begins to inflict big losses and strong inflationary pressure. A wave of baseload installs (standardization and mass production) via nuclear plants could do it. I've oft thought about a program to issue the currency directly to do it (no loans/bonds) and then use some of the proceeds from the plants to retire the currency afterwards. That would cut financing costs out of the equation and standardization would greatly reduce up-front costs. Since it's a gov't project, you wouldn't need to worry about the profit motive nearly so much. And 30-40 extra years of tech improvements would improve safety greatly. Applying that plan to Africa, much in the same way we do with health, could jumpstart and frontrun emissions increases there too. Anyways, I'm rambling. I think we greatly underestimate how difficult this is going to be beyond the low-hanging fruit stage, especially if it's the profit motive doing all of the driving. Because despite renewable costs being low, they're also pretty friggin unprofitable under a high inflation/high interest rate regime with massive oversupply. Oil and gas extraction are still massively profitable. A quick check of those markets (and the stocks behind them) shows that in spades the past couple of years, with most solar/wind stocks suffering large drawdowns from their peaks and oil companies are still doing just fine raking in money.

Endless ink is spilled about costs, but you'd never know we were in a capitalist economy. Zero is written about profits in any analysis I've seen, which is where the rubber hits the road. It can be as cheap as you want, but if the return can't exceed the risk free rate+risk premium, it will suffer. Ask GE or Siemens about that this year. Nor does it consider thermodynamics in a closed system (as the globe necessarily is), which necessitates that if you add energy of any form to the civilizational system and all of its networks, it will grow. Much like a snowflake, if you add water vapor, the dendritic arms grow "at the expense" of the basal facet, nevertheless some of that added water vapor makes it to the facet and causes it to grow as well. We therefore should not be surprised that fossil energy has continued to stubbornly grow and any declines have been (and likely will continue to be) short lived absent recessions or stagflation (see Europe currently). Of course, it's not impossible to decarbonize, but decarbonization is extremely tough and the forces of growth will resist.

Thanks for that. Yeah, the paleoclimate record suggests most of the risk is loaded into the right tail and the PDF of ECS isn't static either, with a minimum ECS value likely where most interglacials (including this one during preindustrial times) end up.

Still just a forecast at this point, but yeah, not a particularly welcome one on either the EC or the GFS.

To be 100% fair, we can hope for a reversal in the cloud cover trend -- that would do it in principle. Specifically low-mid level clouds. (High clouds increasing wouldn't be a good thing.) Perhaps there's some unknown transient climate response for that. However, we've been going the wrong way for some time on that particular trend.

Not much. Saturation vapor pressure increases non-linearly with temperature. So do vapor pressure deficits. Intensifying drought and floods.

Yeah, nice thermocline flattener. Next set of WWBs should actually be strong enough to invert the thermocline slope and start the appearance of significant negative anomalies W of 180.

No freeze here yet and no rain either. Even clouds seem hard to come by lately.

Bone dry lately. Well below average in Sep and only picked up 0.46" here in Oct. Nov. so far is a 0 with little in the forecast.

https://staff.cgd.ucar.edu/cdeser/docs/hwang.anthro_aerosols_persistent_lanina.oct23.pdf Paper link. Would go quite a long ways in explaining why La Nina and trade wind strength has been persistent. Seems to suggest that this is a fast (transient) response and that the slow response is in the opposite direction. Interestingly the model experiment in the paper seems to suggest the fast response in the real world peaks this decade and then the slow response kicks in, reversing the trend. Overall, not great news as this slants the table more towards higher sensitivities with the current trend only being a transient braking mechanism on warming.

Hansen not the only one sniffing out higher ECS. @bluewave @chubbs @bdgwx Timestamped for the appropriate part of the talk.

Am I the only one that read that Webb tweet completely differently?

Here's the EF-scale proposal for damage indicators: https://www.depts.ttu.edu/nwi/Pubs/FScale/EFScale.pdf Some pretty widespread Cat3+ damage (trees snapped including some palms, partially debarked). Curtain/interior walls suffering partial to complete failure in high rises. Some of them you can just see all the way through.

Looks like an OKW was generated and the warm pool is on the move. The arrival of better westerly anomalies after the monsoon season ended was expected. Probably going to take a couple weeks for that to start to be felt further east though.

https://webcamsdemexico.com/webcam/acapulco-condesa/ Last webcam I can find still running. Pitch black though. All power lost nearby about 10m ago. All it is picking up is the occasional lightning flash from the eyewall.