csnavywx

Just an artifact of how the model stamps out the lowest pressure even though that's not where the CoC is. That "low" is being printed there likely because of terrain effects and the fact that the primary over the OH/IN/KY border is filling pretty quickly at that point, causing the pressure at the old CoC to be higher.

Transfer is definitely a little faster on this run. Primary a touch weaker and further S to start with.

12z runs have been a stepwise improvement so far. We definitely need the southern/suppressed trend to cash in on any backside stuff. While the Euro is kinda out on its own, it's a deadly model to bet against.

Will be spinning up some BUFKIT and digging in tomorrow on this, but that front end f-gen and WAA driven snow looks like it could actually produce some decent totals. Not sold on the back-end stuff. That's far more tenuous unless (again) the suppressed solution wins out.

Next week looks like a sloppy gyre of disappointment. Some light stuff possible around the slow-moving upper low or perhaps in association with the clipper-type shortwaves that drop in, but don't count on it. Thermals are just anemic for January. Not much quality cold air around to tap into over Canada either.

Hard not to be happy with that run. Way better than 00Z and trending the right way.

It is -- though drawing this up through BUFKIT reveals that the freezing level is down to 1700' by this point with just 25 J/kg of positive energy left. Definitely some BL issues on the front side, but not insurmountable.

Even the coastal areas can get in on the action with a low that pulls away as it starts to occlude rather than tracking up the coast. Allows the BL above the near-surface layer to cool off and let diabatic cooling do its work. Sun angle not an issue right now either (unlike a March setup).

UKMET has a storm now. Much closer to the GFS/Para/GEM camps. Still a fragile setup ofc, but marked improvement. The GEM being weaker shouldn't be surprising considering how amped and NW it was compared to its own ensembles last night.

No doubt there can be some intense banding with the type of explosive non-linear cyclogenesis this setup can produce, just warning in advance of the (likely sharp) cutoff. You're either in it or you're not type deal. One thing to watch in the globals is where the sloped f-gen zone intersects the DGZ or maxima higher in the column that can overwhelm dry layers. Sometimes, in the scenario you reference, a good indicator of misplaced banding can be teased out of looking at cross sections. We're a few days away from being able to talk about that realistically, but something to look for.

One thing to keep in mind is that given the compact nature of the shortwave being progged and the (very) large and dominant ridging to the north with a pretty hefty windfield, I would bet on a sharper northern cutoff with less of a taper. This system is less likely to feature big mixing zones and the more gradual taper-off you get with a big wrapped WCB-type configuration. Sharp R/S and S/nothing lines.

Mixed rain to snow showers possible tomorrow afternoon and early evening in tandem with the large upper low and attendant vort max. Skies will be mostly clear in the morning, allowing for some insolation under steady mid-level CAA. Should be just enough instability to kick them off. Might be a lightning strike or two with the stronger cores.

If we're going to cash in on a SSW-induced blocking pattern, it's usually a month after the event. Still a ways to go in that regard. Long range starting to show the flip to cold. But of course, we will need the southern sliders to continue.

Still looking decent for some snow showers tomorrow for S MD and the eastern shore. Eastern shore might even fare a bit better due to some downstream Bay enhancement. 700mb temps drop wayyyy off to around -20C tomorrow with bay temps still running around 8C. Despite not particularly favorable wind fetch angles (except down the Potomac), could still see some enhancement of snow shower activity.

It's possible. Wouldn't count on the post-frontal stuff on X-mas eve. Those typically underperform unless the setup is just right. However, there does seem to be a window on Xmas day proper with the big mid-level vort and very steep low-to-mid level lapse rates. Would be a snow shower type setup with 850mb temps around -15C.

The Beaufort is once again demonstrating why it is no longer a safe area to store ice, even in somewhat favorable years.

We (M and Gen Z) have precious little wealth (~4% of the total according to analysis by American Compass and others) and influence. Getting us to vote is harder partially due to the fact that many feel that they don't have a stake in the economic system and little hope for change. While I do think we'll eventually overcome that, it may take a considerable amount of time. Time we don't really have. We're just trying to hang on to survive economically and in a lot of cases -- emotionally. Case in point: Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm#suggestedcitation

Bingo. This is the heart of it right here. I am keenly interested in the reply. Oh, and no goalpost moving. You're free to change your mind based on evidence, as any good scientist should, but not the goalposts.

Yeah, the Chukchi just dropped off a cliff. Now sitting about 350 above 2012 for extent, tied on area and probably lower volume than 2012, given how hard the CAB was whacked.

That's the North Pole now. As the article states, mush up through 88N and that's what's at the pole. Safe to say that the MYI and thicker ice didn't make it through the melt season unscathed. CAB and the thickest ice took the biggest hit this year. It will be interesting to see what CryoSat shows this fall.

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/mosaic-expedition-reaches-the-north-pole.html

Not much attention is paid to long-term morbidities that will spring from the virus (and in some cases, already are) that could run into the millions or tens of millions. Only focusing on the death count is a myopic view of the situation, imo.

Amazing how it's only mid-July and there's virtually nothing left in the Laptev and only scraps in the ESS. The open water front is now in the CAB in record time and with some quality insolation time left on the clock. EPS/GEFS suggest this nuclear blocking pattern is finally backing off, but there are hints that it may be a temporary reprieve if the idea of a more NA centered blocking event past D5/D6 is correct. If that sets up into another event, this year will likely kill off 2012's record. Threre isn't enough peripheral ice left to keep the CAB from taking the brunt, except on the Beaufort side (which is actually doing better than any time since 2013). Having said that, we should see some slowdown in extent losses after D2/D3 for a while. The pack is already pretty compressed, so some dispersion is probably inevitable with the incoming lows. I'm thinking there's a legit chance of clear open water at the pole this year. We've had a couple of years where it came close, but nothing with the start on the Eurasian side like this year has had.

Big dipole to start the month, relaxed a few days later and then a monster Greenland ridge centered around the 12th. That pattern relaxed into a strong +PV for a while with a weaker dipole event to end the month. GAC strikes at the end of the first week of August and by that point is able to sweep away most of the low-extent ice. Overall the first half is dominated by storminess, with a return to Greenland ridging and a dipole-like pattern to finish the month. Most of the damage is done with the early June and early July dipole events (with the mid-July Greenland ridge pattern no doubt helping export).