csnavywx

Might be issuing on the condition that downdrafts are able to tap and bring some of the momentum from that ramping LLJ to the ground. Haven't seen any ground reports that suggest that's happening right now though. My gust spreads here have been large even in the absence of precip so far -- so it seems possible.

Still looking decent for some snow showers tomorrow for S MD and the eastern shore. Eastern shore might even fare a bit better due to some downstream Bay enhancement. 700mb temps drop wayyyy off to around -20C tomorrow with bay temps still running around 8C. Despite not particularly favorable wind fetch angles (except down the Potomac), could still see some enhancement of snow shower activity.

Still leaning strongly towards most of the best action being with narrow convective band along the front with the intense linear forcing and weak instability and then the snow showers ahead of the big mid-level vort during the day tomorrow. Post-frontal stuff will probably get shut down early by that enormous mid-level dry slot. It nearly always underperforms. The saving grace here is intense mid-level CAA ( <-20C temps at 700mb ) and good DPVA which allows for a great environment for snow showers. The tropopause height legit drops to 700mb with surface temps near freezing. Hard to find a much better environment for nice little mini-blizzard-like snow showers east of the mountains.

EPS looked better timing-wise, so that's encouraging at least.

It's possible. Wouldn't count on the post-frontal stuff on X-mas eve. Those typically underperform unless the setup is just right. However, there does seem to be a window on Xmas day proper with the big mid-level vort and very steep low-to-mid level lapse rates. Would be a snow shower type setup with 850mb temps around -15C.

Regardless of the post-frontal stuff (which I find it hard to get excited about -- post-frontal setups rarely produce much), those soundings and the position of the cold pool aloft look somewhat favorable for snow showers on Christmas Day proper. Very cold temps aloft. Might be enough weak surface-based instability to kick off some popcorn snow showers ahead of the mid-level vort.

Warm nose aloft making steady progress. Should be a pretty wide area of sleet for a while -- freezing rain where the nose gets thick enough. Haven't seen any thunder reports yet, though.

That's still snow, but not particularly efficient. Saturation cutoff is around -10C.

There's going to be a LOT of sleet with a warm nose/WCB of that strength. May also be some embedded thunder with those soundings showing a narrow ribbon of conditional upright instability getting entrained aloft.

The amount of spread in the ensembles even 24-48hr out is pretty amazing. That said, if this thing manages to stay offshore after the westward turn, it'll have a favorable period for intensification. Oh, where have we heard that one before?

The Beaufort is once again demonstrating why it is no longer a safe area to store ice, even in somewhat favorable years.

We (M and Gen Z) have precious little wealth (~4% of the total according to analysis by American Compass and others) and influence. Getting us to vote is harder partially due to the fact that many feel that they don't have a stake in the economic system and little hope for change. While I do think we'll eventually overcome that, it may take a considerable amount of time. Time we don't really have. We're just trying to hang on to survive economically and in a lot of cases -- emotionally. Case in point: Source: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm#suggestedcitation

Bingo. This is the heart of it right here. I am keenly interested in the reply. Oh, and no goalpost moving. You're free to change your mind based on evidence, as any good scientist should, but not the goalposts.

How many more nails do we need to drive into this UHI coffin before the zombie finally stops moving?

Yeah, the Chukchi just dropped off a cliff. Now sitting about 350 above 2012 for extent, tied on area and probably lower volume than 2012, given how hard the CAB was whacked.

That's the North Pole now. As the article states, mush up through 88N and that's what's at the pole. Safe to say that the MYI and thicker ice didn't make it through the melt season unscathed. CAB and the thickest ice took the biggest hit this year. It will be interesting to see what CryoSat shows this fall.

https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/mosaic-expedition-reaches-the-north-pole.html

Not much attention is paid to long-term morbidities that will spring from the virus (and in some cases, already are) that could run into the millions or tens of millions. Only focusing on the death count is a myopic view of the situation, imo.

Amazing how it's only mid-July and there's virtually nothing left in the Laptev and only scraps in the ESS. The open water front is now in the CAB in record time and with some quality insolation time left on the clock. EPS/GEFS suggest this nuclear blocking pattern is finally backing off, but there are hints that it may be a temporary reprieve if the idea of a more NA centered blocking event past D5/D6 is correct. If that sets up into another event, this year will likely kill off 2012's record. Threre isn't enough peripheral ice left to keep the CAB from taking the brunt, except on the Beaufort side (which is actually doing better than any time since 2013). Having said that, we should see some slowdown in extent losses after D2/D3 for a while. The pack is already pretty compressed, so some dispersion is probably inevitable with the incoming lows. I'm thinking there's a legit chance of clear open water at the pole this year. We've had a couple of years where it came close, but nothing with the start on the Eurasian side like this year has had.

Big dipole to start the month, relaxed a few days later and then a monster Greenland ridge centered around the 12th. That pattern relaxed into a strong +PV for a while with a weaker dipole event to end the month. GAC strikes at the end of the first week of August and by that point is able to sweep away most of the low-extent ice. Overall the first half is dominated by storminess, with a return to Greenland ridging and a dipole-like pattern to finish the month. Most of the damage is done with the early June and early July dipole events (with the mid-July Greenland ridge pattern no doubt helping export).

2020 now lowest for both extent and area. The pack has been getting absolutely hammered for the past week -- pretty much everywhere. There's still some area/extent left in the Hudson (moreso than most recent years), so 2020 could build up a pretty sizeable lead over the next week or two, which would put it in position to be competitive with 2012's turbo August melt. The hole that is being blown open on the Laptev/ESS side is getting big and getting big early. The difference has been that the Beaufort and Chukchi look to be in halfway decent shape right now. We'll have to see if any of that can survive, but the experience of the post-2007 years has been for most of that to melt out.

I suspected that whopping May dipole did more damage than was originally appreciated. The timing was just close enough to the solstice for sun angle to really matter and there was clearly some deterioration in the snow pack when it did cross. Perhaps more importantly, it destroyed the tropospheric low-level cold pool that is typically still present at that time of year. With the sun angle already high, it could not regenerate through clear-sky longwave radiation, only mainly through recirculation and diabatic processes. Surface temps never did fall/recover after that, despite some decent +PV action afterwards. We're now seeing ponding cover virtually the entire basin, with no "safe spots" like we've seen the past few years, where melt would start later. Also unlike past years, the strongest area drops recently have been driven by melting and losses the basin proper and not on the periphery, which is actually higher this time around. In fact, the only thing keeping this above 2012 right now are the peripheral areas, which have been running above the 2010s average lately. Much like that year, the rot is widespread and no real snowcover remains. There's more ice in the Beaufort/Chukchi, but even favorable recent years have seen that melt out rapidly in late July and early August, so I don't expect that to survive. Combined with the very poor state of the pack on the Eurasian side of the Arctic (which has been absolutely hammered this year), we do have a real shot at the record. Of course, a strong sustained +PV pattern can always swoop in and save it.

EOSDIS Worldview looking 2012-ish with the very widespread melt ponding on virtually the entire basin. CAB/CAA are being especially hard hit. Cross-posting this video from Neven's forum of a video uploaded by GAWLab at Alert: