csnavywx

A purely statistical model would have basically "missed" 2012 at this point. Probably 2007 as well. I suspect the issue has to with the behavior of extent numbers when volume gets very low.

This dipole will probably largely finish off the ESS, Chukchi and Laptev. Beaufort probably won't have much left either. Not looking great for the CAB either. Only the Atlantic side is doing okay this year.

Yeah, going to be tough to beat that early Aug. swan dive that 2012 had. Upcoming dipole might help give it a run for its money though.

The crazy thing is, with that temp trendline, this May-June period will be merely average by 2030-2035 -- though I would expect it to slow down after a while due to widespread melt moving earlier and capping temps near the melting point.

The classical dipole we tend to refer to typically means higher pressure on the Greenland/CAA/North American side of the basin and lower pressure on the Eurasian/Russian side. This results in a net wind and ice transport from the Pacific to Atlantic side of the basin. This typically causes high melt via transport of continental air over the central ice pack, compaction and export out through the Fram Strait and towards the Atlantic, where deep warm water makes quick work of even very thick sea ice. A reverse dipole is the opposite situation.

ESS is getting absolutely crushed. I highly doubt we see an ice "arm" there this year. Very impressive considering it started out in better shape this year. Doesn't bode well for CAB ice in that sector later this month.

Area loss was a bit slower, but still relatively high. Building up a lead on 2012 there too, though I expect it to be close again in 5 days or so.

Worldview looking worse and worse. Like 2012, the entire pack is riddled with extensive melt ponding, with no snow-covered areas left. We never quite get rid of that -NAO either and that's going to be a bit of an issue in the next week for the CAB and Beaufort in particular. It's not the raging dipole or warmth we've had, but it isn't terribly great either.

It's building up a lead in area and volume, so I expect it to be quite competitive even without a GAC

Mercifully, it appears the pattern is breaking down for real this time, though there's some question on where that TPV sets up. If it's closer to the pole, then we could see a decent slowdown. If it's over towards the Laptev, then it won't provide all that much braking action as the CAB, Beaufort and Chukchi are exposed (and that front is very weak this year already).

Yes, there does seem to be a relaxation of the hostile pattern in the cards in a few days. It doesn't exactly look cool, but definitely better than what we have now. In the meantime, area remains in freefall and will likely build up a sizable lead over the next few days. Volume is now at record lowest (as of the 1st). This year definitely has a real shot at the record. At the very least an easy 2nd or 3rd place.

2019 has stolen the lead on NSIDC area, if very narrowly. Still trails a bit on extent. Chukchi, Beaufort, ESS and CAB are taking substantial hits at the moment. 2012 drops a bit slowly over the next 5 days before diving again, so there's a chance 2019 will stay in the lead for a little while.

Now that the forecast range is much shorter, it looks like 2019 can snipe pole position over the next week or so. 2012 had a very impressive dipole at the end of June to about July 10th as well, so it'll be close, like ORH said. We're still a bit behind melt ponding in 2012 overall, but that looks to close up quickly with this upcoming pattern. The Atlantic sector and the area of untouched ice/snow in the central CAB are the only things holding this up at the moment and both look to start retreating soon. Substantial area drops are already underway due to the warm advection from the Siberian side, but with this upcoming dipole, we should see some big area drops from the CAB for the first time this season. After July 10 or so, 2012 never did get back to the mega-dipoles over the basin, but the damage was pretty well done by that point as virtually the entire pack was riddled with ponds and the momentum alone was enough to cruise in comfortably to a record.

Record low volume was 2016 (a near tie). Please tell me I'm misreading this and you're not trying to go down this "it's mostly natural variability" road. That coffin has so many nails in it there's virtually no more room to fit another.

Some of the area flatline is due to cooler weather, but some of it is also due to melt pond draining as water-covered ice tends to be (incorrectly) counted as open water by the sensor. There tends to be a big drop initially as widespread melt ponding sets in, it rebounds somewhat as those ponds drain and then drops again as the ice breaks up.

The Chukchi-Laptev sector has been under withering fire for some time now. If this keeps up, there won't be an ESS "arm" of ice to be recirculated this year. About the only spot that's in halfway decent shape appears to be right near the pole. Some ponding there, but not too much -- yet. Ponding isn't quite as widespread as 2012 overall, but the open water fronts are generally in a more retreated position, with the open front from the Beaufort-Chukchi being opened very early and the Laptev bite being especially large and the fast ice and poleward pack ice in an advanced state of decay already. The Atlantic sector is in better shape than 2012 at this point and I think that's where most of the extra area/extent is located right now. This year has a legit shot of seeing full open water at the pole, if nothing else due to the advanced state of the Laptev Bite. One thing that does concern me considerably (for this year and future ones) is the amount of heat being pumped into the Chukchi. It is running extremely warm (4-8C SSTs already) and that water tends to be pumped under the halocline where it is stored from year to year. Once temps reach ~12C though, surface density drops below the fresher water at the top of the halocline, allowing it to be disrupted. It doesn't take a full disruption though. A weakened stability gradient is enough to cause some significant changes. So the heat pump that is running in overdrive this year will only serve to hasten the demise of the summertime Pacific sector in the future.

Yeah, some of these ensemble and OP runs are pretty monstrous with the heat in a few days.

The aggressive final warming of the PV in late April seems to have done a number on the pattern this year. It's shaping up to be much closer to the 07-12 pattern than we've seen in recent years (with the possible exception of '16). The Beaufort and Chukchi are in record low territory already (by a long shot) with a continuous open water front establishing very early in the season. It's been very warm in May, though slightly cooler than 2012 as of the last week or two. That could change over the next 5-10 days as a big Greenland block looks to get going and the EPS and FV3 hint at what could turn into a big classic dipole by mid-month. It'll be warm until then, so losses should continue apace, but some real fireworks would get going if that verifies. This year's tendency has been strongly towards blocking, and I suspect that dynamic PV breakdown this spring has something to do with it. Unlike the last several years, where we would slide inevitably into a PV-dominated pattern, that does not seem to be the case this time around. These blocking patterns have actually been verifying.

Diffusion of heat down the water column via mixing or and/or subduction under a vertical salinity gradient. Stronger winds will increase the depth of the mixed layer, bringing up colder intermediate and (in some cases) deep water to mix with near-surface waters, for instance. When combined with increased heat uptake due to GHG (and other) forcing, that causes said heat to be "buried" at depth, even though surface waters may cool. This can give the illusion that the extra heat is gone, but in reality, it has simply been mixed or subducted down. The situation can change if the circulation state (via natural variability or otherwise) changes, allowing some of that heat to effectively resurface.

It's possible we've turned the corner down in the SH, but it's hard to say with only 3 years. Some of the bad conditions this year are undoubtedly just weather. However, the reappearance of stronger deep convection (for example, -- Weddell Sea polynya -- after decades of absence) could mean that we're returning to a circulation regime less conducive to retaining sea ice in the melt season. A great deal of heat burial has taken place in the Southern Ocean over the past 20-30 years, so any relaxation of that pattern will of course allow some of that to resurface and augment the background GHG forcing. Interestingly, this heat burial mechanism is occurring under the Arctic as well via transport from the Pacific through the Bering and under the Chukchi Sea into the CAB. It is also coming from the Atlantic via the Barents (where the intermediate warm layer has intensified rapidly and shoaled over time). Once that reaches critical mass (10-15 years), it too will surface and bite into the CAB.

Warmer temps, less clouds and unfavorable winds. The last 3 years have been pretty bad, but this one takes the cake with all of the early ponding and breakup.

The Antarctic season has been remarkably bad and is now dead last in both extent and by a large margin in area. It's also in considerably worse shape (concentration wise) than even 2016.

Another insane autumn. Starting to see these open water areas stick around a lot longer into the fall now. It will be interesting to see how late the Chukchi stays open this year. That side has become a serious weak point for the pack during the summer melt as that region has transitioned well away from having any persistent ice cover.

After a meager +17k increase on Jaxa yesterday, 2018 has now claimed 2nd place behind only 2012 (+619k). That was fast.

Records are going to get steamrolled for the next week or so.