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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Agreed. Though these things do sometimes like to be a BIT ahead of schedule (sometimes way ahead). I guess a lot will depend on whether it's one of those days where the slightest trigger makes for a messy radar. So far plenty of sun and no signs of storms yet. My dewpoint is around 70 so that can't hurt. I'll be watching that 3-4pm timeframe to see where we stand.
  2. Kmlwx
    It seems like we have not terrible mid-level lapse rates for a change. However, those may not be timed right with the actual storms - seems the best MLLR will be heading out of the area by the time storms are firing/ongoing. But better than nothing I suppose. I think we have a better than usual shot at a more widespread event today...hence the SPC ENH risk upgrade. 1630z discussion will be interesting to get a read on the latest thoughts.
  3. Kmlwx
    HRDPS
  4. Kmlwx
    It kind of looks like the eggplant emoji shape....
  5. Kmlwx
    HREF looks decent.
  6. Kmlwx
    Also - one of the few recent times I can remember when we have no cloud worries early on.
  7. Kmlwx
    Just saw the upgrade to enhanced. Day-of upgrades always seem to bode well for us. Especially when the upgrade is at the 1300 update or later. Let's go!
  8. Kmlwx
    Wonder how their new drainage system would hold up
  9. Kmlwx
    That would be ugly for Ellicott City....
  10. Kmlwx
    Particularly if the jackpots are in areas that have recently been deluged.
  11. Kmlwx
    Some of those products are beautiful. Thanks!
  12. Kmlwx
    A bit OT - but it would be really cool to have a model that was similar to the HRRR where the domain was not the entire country but small regions. Smaller region I'd assume would let it be run more frequently or at a higher resolution. Get a data assimilation system in place that allows for realllllllly good data at the start. Could be fun to see how something like that would perform as a regular part of the forecast models. I know some places (Millersville University had one) have WRFs that they run on their own...but talking more about something at the NCEP level. Though I'm aware that better resolution doesn't always mean better accuracy
  13. Kmlwx
    Having that coincide with climo peak heat would be very nice. Some sort of torch is nearly inevitable during summer - but if we can have that happen more towards later summer when we can pair it with reducing climo maxes it blunts the heat of summer a bit. 90 is even fine with me. But avoiding 95 and 68+ dewpoints would be great. All in all I haven't melted this summer so far.
  14. Kmlwx
    The HRRR has some smaller cells (nothing too impressive looking) for the metros. Thinking it *could* be distantly similar to the other day when things looked kind of lame and then cells kept training over MoCo. Maybe not to that degree but there could be training or backbuilding I'd think. Think that Flood Watch is more to cover the isolated cases of urban flooding or small creeks that inevitably occur in any storm that lasts more than 10 minutes.
  15. Kmlwx
    76 degree dewpoint IMBY right now. Awful.
  16. Kmlwx
    Missing me just a hair to the east. Good rumble of thunder a few mins ago, though.
  17. Kmlwx
    The fat lady is warming up for those of us not being impacted by the King George, VA cluster. HRRR continues to suck for this afternoon.
  18. Kmlwx
    Latest HRRR sucks.
  19. Kmlwx
    I'm starting to think either we are cooked for severe today or this stuff gets out of the way and something forms/comes through late afternoon/early evening.
  20. Kmlwx
    Certainly seems like all this messy convection about to come off the high terrain will be here very early. There's a lot of it too...not just a few cells. If that doesn't intensify it'll probably dampen our instability big time.
  21. Kmlwx
    Actually so is the 12z FV3, ARW, ARW2 AND the HERDERPS.
  22. Kmlwx
    12z RAP brings a nice line through as well.
  23. Kmlwx
    12z HRRR seems like it missed/is missing all of the crapvection in WV...but it delivers a healthy line into the area this afternoon.
  24. Kmlwx
    Hopefully that WV activity can stay out there for the morning at the very least. I saw a few runs yesterday that brought activity in as early as 17z in spots. If we can prevent crapvection from forming closer in to the major metro - we might be okay.
  25. Kmlwx
    One encouraging sign is that my dewpoint has risen to the upper 60s (even pushing 70 at times). So the moisture has certainly advected back in. Some of the models that really didn't develop much instability seemed to have a dry pool of air in the area and especially in the eastern half of the area on earlier runs. However, I see dews are almost entirely into the mid to upper 60s across the area now...even low 70s in southern Maryland.
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