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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just drove up to Kingsport from Morgan county. A few small trees down on roads in my neighborhood near Coalfield, but nothing blocking the roads. Looked like a tree was down near the ridgefields market in Kingsport, but someone had cleaned it up. A lot of tractor trailers were taking a break on exit ramps on 81. Fortunately it was mostly a head wind driving up 81 so it wasn’t too bad of a drive.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Was just reading in the main tropical thread that recon had to abort from the eye due to an extreme updraft. Apparently similar wording was used for Hugo? Of course extreme updrafts in hurricane eyes may be pretty normal too. https://x.com/erin_kwx/status/1839453447902433339?s=46&t=KMZWtmm9xSWkLJtvZXn39g edit to add the link to that x post
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think that one just formed and raced poleward. But yeah maybe a similar track. May be driving to Kingsport tomorrow AM. Could be fun. Hopefully I survive if I end up going!
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah I wasn't necessarily trying to make people think it would be the same, just that Fujiwara getting it inland quickly was the similarity I was looking at. Sorry of that came across wrong. One thing in the NWS Hugo site shows is a compilation of what locals remember as the worst tropical system and oddly enough there was a similar situation to Hugo (with regards to flooding I suspect because of the SLPs recorded) in 1940 in the NC mountains:
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Did Hugo have a upper low slinging it inland too? I was just looking at a model for Helene and the long outflow cloud deck aiming at the upper low seems to remind me of Hugo: Helene: Hugo: Color schemes aren't the same, but the long outflow upper cloud deck kind of seems similar to me. Actually, I just realized I could go look at reanalysis and yeah, Hugo had a deep south upper low:
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    GOES 19: https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/noaa-debuts-first-imagery-goes-19
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Woo hoo, actual rainfall on the plateau this AM! Hope everyone who has a chance can get a shower!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    We did. First time for me. What an amazing drive! Started snowing around Silverton and it was 29 with a nice dusting above Ouray. We were worried we might have to drive 8 hours back to Durango via Grand Junction and Moab, lol. There was a persistent snow band on that pass and while the students we take on the trip were relaxing in the hot springs, I was frantically checking the satellite since there was some clearing over SW Utah. At 5PM we attempted the pass. The snow had stopped but the roads were wet and it was in the upper 20s above 10000'. There were motorcycles and a semi that we met near the top of the pass, so that gave us some confidence. Made it back to Durango by 7! Here is a pic coming down into Ouray for those who haven't seen this drive: Luckily it was foggy and we couldn't see the 1000' drop off to the left. If any of y'all ever have the chance to do that drive and go to the Ouray Hot springs, I highly recommend!
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Hope everyone had a good summer! Occasional cold fronts and football have prodded me out of my AMWx estivation. Here are some sky photos from my annual May trip to the SW: Mts above Flagstaff, AZ: AM snow over the Grand Canyon: PM storms over the grand canyon: The aurora from Mather campground: fun sunrise clouds over southern Utah: distant virga storm as seen from around 11,000 feet near Brian head in Utah: first time I've seen differential heating storms growing with a foot plus of snow on the ground (also Brian Head): Kodachrome basin sky: Golden hour over the La Sal mts near Moab, UT: same spot but at night with fullish moon and an iphone: late May snow over Silverton, CO: occasionally tornadic storm in Oklahoma near Lake Eufaula:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's been pretty sad watching the precip chances slowly ebb for plateau areas as Francine has moved toward us. Had a 20 second decent shower and that's about it. Some Hires models showing some storm chances this PM. MRX also notes the non 0 tornado risk in southern plateau and valley areas.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Worst possible sky cover here in Harriman that I could imagine, lol.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found a Facebook video with the Sunbright tornado https://www.facebook.com/justan.spurling/videos/1654843611997812
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Tornado warning north of me near Sunbright.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Sadly everything looks too progressive for my storm early next week. Euro AIFS was the first to wash it out, so maybe its on to something with the next one. At this point, I'd just like to see a strong storm north and east of the Missouri/ Mississippi rivers. I think all string storms have to for the lee of the Rockies and aim at the lakes recently.
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z GFS = yum
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not there yet, but some improvement:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Found this in the main ENSO thread: I could be reading it wrong, but it looks like SST anomalies by year and latitude. Looks like something tipped around 2003 and again after the super Nino in 2015-16. I'd love to see that chart going back another 100 years, but that could also be more depressing, lol.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    GFS has some deep troughs this morning and the Euro control (basically the new Euro now) has clipper after clipper after clipper. If I was above 3500 feet WV, VA, or NC mountains, I'd love the Euro's look. Now that is finally a pattern look that matches the developing ENSO state. Exactly what you'd expect from a Nina. Maybe that is an indication we get some nice MCSs by June? I love me some MCSs, lol.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Had to turn the heat on for the first time in what seems like weeks this morning.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah it looked like it was pretty well zonked.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    You think there's any way we can talk some of these shortwaves diving in, into a March date in Georgia? Consider the peach blossoms and beaches! They get freaky on Euro AIFS, but over Scranton PA. Who wants romance in NE PA in March? The Euro OP knows its days are numbered this year, so its Breaking Bad in New Mexico and emerging a strung out mess. Not good for a phased consummation: (Although..... its antics might have drawn in a 3rd partner from the northern stream at the end of the run) Probably worse 500 mb looks: Euro control gives us a nice clipper afterwards. Not a current model forecast, but 5 days ago the models still liked this storm: That's the kind of phase I'd love to see.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z GFS looking suppressed by N. stream troughs. Whatever that AIFS Euro is, doesn't look too bad at the end of its 0z run. DT is pessimistic on X. Hope is kindled in the damp boundary layer of my heart.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Is it possible for such a stout upper low to take this track when there is cold air nearby? No says I. Not since 1993.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Some photos from recent trips on the Cumberland mts: White Rocks above the Powell Valley looking toward Daniel Boone land: Sand Cave in Cumberland Gap NHP, waterfall: Piney River Falls and trout:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    If you love in the central or southern east TN Valley, and you ever wanted to see what the warm air advectin looks like when we have a storm to our west mess up our thermal profiles, yesterday might not have been a bad visualization with the low level moisture:
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